A shares are in the cross annual cycle of slow rise. In the future, new overseas easing measures are expected to boost the global risk appetite. The domestic economy will continue to be stable and sound, and the policy will remain stable. It is expected that the behavior of institutional position adjustment at the end of the year will promote the pro cyclical plate market to continue to the first quarter of next year.
First of all, in order to cope with the decline of subsidies at the end of the year, the United States is expected to expand monetary or fiscal stimulus in December, further boosting the global risk appetite, and accelerating foreign investors to continue to allocate a shares at the end of the year. Secondly, it is expected that the economic data in November will continue to verify the recovery trend, and the setting tone of the central economic work conference in December will remain stable, and the actual tightening of policies will be as early as the second quarter of 2021. Thirdly, the pro cyclical plate is still relatively stagnant in the year, but the rise of its relative boom intensity will prompt the institutions to actively increase the allocation at the end of the year, further strengthening the sustainability of the plate market. Finally, it is expected that the peak of profit recovery of this round of Pro cyclical plate will appear in the first quarter of next year, and from the historical relative valuation point of view, there is still room for valuation repair in major Pro cyclical industries, and the approximate rate of plate market will continue to the first quarter of next year, and the relative profit growth advantage of new economy plate is expected to be reflected in the second half of 2021. CITIC Securities believes that A-share is in a slow growth period driven by continuous improvement of fundamentals, and the pro cyclical relative prosperity and valuation advantage will further strengthen the plate market.
In terms of configuration, the pro cyclical industry sector suggests continuing to pay attention to basic metals, energy metals and chemical industry; optional consumer sector, maintaining the previous continuous recommendation, focusing on household appliances, automobiles, liquor, home furnishings, hotels and scenic spots in the recovery of travel in the epidemic era after benefiting; in the undervalued sector, it is suggested to focus on economy, policy and profitability to jointly catalyze banks; at the same time, short-term construction should be carried out It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of leading stocks in the pharmaceutical sector after the implementation of centralized purchase.
Haitong Securities: at the end of the year, the red packet market can be expected. Next year, the market will enter the bull market bubble period.
Haitong Securities pointed out that overall, the Shanghai stock index is located above the central rail, and near the upper selling line. The gem is located below the middle rail. Therefore, from the perspective of the pattern, the Shanghai composite index is stronger than the gem index. It is worth mentioning that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.54% on Friday, breaking through the bull market peak in 2015 and reaching a new high in the past 12 years. This performance is particularly striking in the recent environment with general profit making effect. Similarly, the CSI 300 index is also significantly stronger than other composite indexes. The result of market differentiation is that the rise or fall will be involved by the other party, and it is difficult to form a joint force. The most typical case is that one side spirals up, while the other side spirals down (like the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and gem index in 2017). At present, the most desirable situation is that the strong side can drive the weak side, thus turning the situation around. No matter how the next step evolves, as the oscillatory structure comes to an end, the balance must be broken in some way. At the moment, we need to maintain moderate vigilance, but at the same time we can still look forward to the end of the red envelope market.
Under the background of economic transformation, Chinas long-term equity investment and financing era has been gradually launched, and there are three major characteristics of equity investment: racetrack, leading and institutional. The era of long term equity does not conflict with the bull and bear cycle. In 2021, the market entered the bubble period of profit and sentiment driven, that is, shares dance the hearts of the people. A-share is a bull of transformation and upgrading, science and technology and domestic demand are the medium-term main line, and short-term financial repair. Ah premium narrowing in the future may be due to the supplementary rise of Hong Kong shares.
Huatai Securities: procyclical plate repair is expected to continue in time and space
The procyclical plate repair is expected to continue in both time and space. Considering the interest rate level, vaccine news, etc., the style of A-share in December may be further balanced to value, and the order of financial real estate stocks is bank > Insurance > Securities > real estate. This round is different from the historical credit cycle, and the logic of banks and real estate is differentiated. Compared with the end of last year, the Pb index of banks still has a large space to repair, and the insurance index has been restored to the corresponding level; the internal repair sequence of banks is in line with the market style, first repairing the growth banks, and then repairing the low valuation banks; the certainty of the economic fundamentals repair is higher than that of the A-share market It is superior to securities companies.
Aviation industry and gas industry are also concerned about short-term opportunities such as coal and cold winter. In 2021, along with the global re inflation and the rebound of manufacturing investment, it is suggested to take bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.
China Merchants Securities: the Shanghai index is expected to break through the previous high in December, and the market is expected to continue to adjust its position in the direction of undervalue and cycle
In December 2020, China Merchants Securities expects that the market will continue to maintain the upward trend, the Shanghai stock index is expected to break through the previous high point, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index will continue to record high. The main reason is that the profits of industrial enterprises have improved rapidly, the demand for real estate infrastructure investment is still relatively strong, the inventory has accelerated to decline, and the price has continued to rise. The global vaccine is coming out quickly, the global economy is still repairing, and the global real estate continues to rise. Beishang capital has accelerated its inflow after the improvement of economic expectation and the landing of external uncertainty, and the valuation of Pro cyclical plate is expected to continue to increase after the performance has improved significantly. At the same time, near the end of the year, the market is expected to continue to the undervalued Pro cyclical direction of position adjustment, it is not ruled out that under the leadership of finance, the blue chip weight index appears to rise rapidly in stages.
Everbright Securities: focus on the procyclicality of stagflation and optional consumption of full callback
Last week, the A-share market continued to show a trend of differentiation, with the pro cyclical sector leading the rise, the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise market retreated for three consecutive weeks. It is worth noting that although the market has a high recognition of the economic recovery and pro cyclical plate, there are still differences on the specific investment direction, which is reflected by the faster rotation rhythm in the recent cycle plate. In terms of news, last week, the central bank released the third quarter monetary policy implementation report. In terms of monetary policy, the third quarter monetary policy implementation report continued the keynote of previous prudent monetary policy. However, in terms of M2 and social financing growth rate, the central bank set m2 and social finance growth target as basically matching the nominal GDP growth rate reflecting potential output, from 5 From the obviously higher than nominal GDP growth rate of the NPC and CPPCC in July to the reasonable growth of the Politburo meeting in July, and now the basically matching GDP growth rate of the same name, the changes of social finance and M2 growth target reflect the change of the central banks attitude towards the domestic credit cycle, and the domestic credit will be tightened marginally in the future.
With the year-end assessment of the fund approaching, the stagflation Pro cyclical sector is expected to continue to be favored by market funds. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to grasp the following two main investment lines: u2460 focus on the stagflation Pro cyclical plate, such as upstream (non-ferrous metals, oil, coal), finance and Transportation Board; in addition, the infrastructure industry chain with continuously improved prosperity should also be paid attention to; u2461 continue to pay attention to optional Consumer sector, continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the home appliance sector, the recent volatility of the automotive sector has increased significantly, if it has a significant correction, then the callback will still be a good buy point.
In the past week, the market undervalued cyclical plate continued to lead the rise and the market style rebalancing, but the style change and the overall A-share index trend were more tangled, weaker than expected. On the one hand, it may be that the funds for chasing short-term game opportunities under the trend of A-share institutionalization are not as strong as before; on the other hand, the concern of policy exit may limit market funds to pursue cyclical plate.
Anxin Securities: the market is still in the pattern of shock and upward, Pro cycle is expected to continue to become the main line of the market
The market is still in a pattern of upward shocks. In Chinas sustained economic recovery, vaccine gradually approaching, Pro cyclical will be expected to continue to be the main line of A-share market, among which, the demand side has its own inventory cycle and industry cycle logic, and the supply side has the direction of contraction or capacity exit. The sustainability of these directions can exceed market expectations.
The industry focuses on: liquor, white electricity, automobile (including new energy automobile industry chain), chemical industry, machinery, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, insurance, banks, securities companies, military industry, semiconductor, etc.
Founder Securities: recovery continued to buy value, December will usher in the main wave market
Founder Securities believes that the main idea of industry allocation is: recovery continues, buy value. In November, the Shanghai composite index showed a slow upward trend, and stood at 3400 points for the first time since September. Among them, non-ferrous metals, steel, mining, automobile, banking and other pro cyclical plate led the rise, while the consumption growth plate such as medicine, media and computer led the decline. From the perspective of economic environment, policy environment and valuation cost performance, the market style has changed from growth consumption to pro cyclical. From the perspective of industry allocation, in December, the domestic economic and monetary policy environment remained friendly, and the index may continue to fluctuate and rise driven by the heavyweights, and there are still structural opportunities in the market. First of all, the economic data reflects the continuation of domestic economic recovery momentum. Under the logic of economic recovery, the inflection point of cyclical industry performance overlaps with the low valuation, and the value style market is expected to continue.
December will welcome the main rising trend at the end of next year and the beginning of the year. The domestic and international energy consumption is expected to accelerate to a new high of 6% in the early stage, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high of 6%, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high of 6%, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high. On the other hand, the third quarter cargo policy report confirmed that liquidity has entered into a neutral environment, and the rate of interest rate rise in this round is not small, and the rate of subsequent rise will be slowed down.
YueKai Securities: the main line of recovery is getting better, focusing on the end of the year market
In terms of configuration, we should pay attention to two main lines: the first is to grasp the main line of economic recovery. Economic fundamentals continue to recover, and in the first quarter of next year, due to the low base, the economic growth rate may increase significantly. In the whole year, the economic growth rate may be high before and low at the end. Then, the pro cyclical plate benefiting from economic recovery may continue to be favored by funds, such as chemical industry, nonferrous metals, securities companies, automobiles, etc.
Main line 2: restless main line in spring. As the year-end assessment of institutions is drawing to a close, many institutions have adjusted their positions and are ready to make arrangements for the next year to cash in the achievements of the profitable sectors this year. Focus on the products with higher prosperity, such as semiconductor, military industry, new energy vehicles and other leading varieties.
Guosheng Securities: cross year market has opened, along the three fronts actively participate
Continue to be optimistic about the current to the first quarter of next years cross year market. Under the multiple joint forces of global economic recovery, the digestion of external uncertainty and the rise of risk preference brought about by the warming of internal policy expectations, the market is expected to resonate upward, and the market will greatly exceed expectations. It is suggested to actively participate.
It is suggested to actively participate in the cross year market along three fronts. 1. At present, there is no big risk inside and outside the market until the first quarter of next year. At the same time, the policy expectation of the 14th five year plan will gradually increase from the opinion draft to the official draft. It is suggested to pay attention to the sectors with high policy expectations such as new energy, semiconductor and military industry, which are greatly affected by the rising risk preference. 2. The resonance recovery of the global economy is still the main driving force of the current market, and nonferrous metals, machinery, petroleum, petrochemical and other Fu Su chain related plates are also expected to continue to reap excess earnings. 3. At present, the market will still be in the performance gap period until the first quarter of next year. It is suggested to lay out new energy, home appliances, automobiles and other sectors with a sustained rebound in demand and industry prosperity.
Source of this article: Ren Hui, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NBJ9607