A shares are in the cross annual cycle of slow rise. In the future, new overseas easing measures are expected to boost the global risk appetite. The domestic economy will continue to be stable and sound, and the policy will remain stable. It is expected that the behavior of institutional position adjustment at the end of the year will promote the pro cyclical plate market to continue to the first quarter of next year.
First of all, in order to cope with the decline of subsidies at the end of the year, the United States is expected to expand monetary or fiscal stimulus in December, further boosting the global risk appetite, and accelerating foreign investors to continue to allocate a shares at the end of the year. Secondly, it is expected that the economic data in November will continue to verify the recovery trend, and the setting tone of the central economic work conference in December will remain stable, and the actual tightening of policies will be as early as the second quarter of 2021. Thirdly, the pro cyclical plate is still relatively stagnant in the year, but the rise of its relative boom intensity will prompt the institutions to actively increase the allocation at the end of the year, further strengthening the sustainability of the plate market. Finally, it is expected that the peak of profit recovery of this round of Pro cyclical plate will appear in the first quarter of next year, and from the historical relative valuation point of view, there is still room for valuation repair in major Pro cyclical industries, and the approximate rate of plate market will continue to the first quarter of next year, and the relative profit growth advantage of new economy plate is expected to be reflected in the second half of 2021. CITIC Securities believes that A-share is in a slow growth period driven by continuous improvement of fundamentals, and the pro cyclical relative prosperity and valuation advantage will further strengthen the plate market.
Haitong Securities: at the end of the year, the red packet market can be expected. Next year, the market will enter the bull market bubble period.
Haitong Securities pointed out that overall, the Shanghai stock index is located above the central rail, and near the upper selling line. The gem is located below the middle rail. Therefore, from the perspective of the pattern, the Shanghai composite index is stronger than the gem index. It is worth mentioning that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.54% on Friday, breaking through the bull market peak in 2015 and reaching a new high in the past 12 years. This performance is particularly striking in the recent environment with general profit making effect. Similarly, the CSI 300 index is also significantly stronger than other composite indexes. The result of market differentiation is that the rise or fall will be involved by the other party, and it is difficult to form a joint force. The most typical case is that one side spirals up, while the other side spirals down (like the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and gem index in 2017). At present, the most desirable situation is that the strong side can drive the weak side, thus turning the situation around. No matter how the next step evolves, as the oscillatory structure comes to an end, the balance must be broken in some way. At the moment, we need to maintain moderate vigilance, but at the same time we can still look forward to the end of the red envelope market.
Under the background of economic transformation, Chinas long-term equity investment and financing era has been gradually launched, and there are three major characteristics of equity investment: racetrack, leading and institutional. The era of long term equity does not conflict with the bull and bear cycle. In 2021, the market entered the bubble period of profit and sentiment driven, that is, shares dance the hearts of the people. A-share is a bull of transformation and upgrading, science and technology and domestic demand are the medium-term main line, and short-term financial repair. Ah premium narrowing in the future may be due to the supplementary rise of Hong Kong shares.
Huatai Securities: procyclical plate repair is expected to continue in time and space
China Merchants Securities: the Shanghai index is expected to break through the previous high in December, and the market is expected to continue to adjust its position in the direction of undervalue and cycle
In December 2020, China Merchants Securities expects that the market will continue to maintain the upward trend, the Shanghai stock index is expected to break through the previous high point, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index will continue to record high. The main reason is that the profits of industrial enterprises have improved rapidly, the demand for real estate infrastructure investment is still relatively strong, the inventory has accelerated to decline, and the price has continued to rise. The global vaccine is coming out quickly, the global economy is still repairing, and the global real estate continues to rise. Beishang capital has accelerated its inflow after the improvement of economic expectation and the landing of external uncertainty, and the valuation of Pro cyclical plate is expected to continue to increase after the performance has improved significantly. At the same time, near the end of the year, the market is expected to continue to the undervalued Pro cyclical direction of position adjustment, it is not ruled out that under the leadership of finance, the blue chip weight index appears to rise rapidly in stages.
In December, we focused on the following market points: 1. The Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference. The Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference will be held in December to set the economy for the next year. According to the statement of the third quarter report of the monetary policy executive committee, the fiscal and monetary policy will return to neutrality and the monetary gate will be raised again. We need to pay attention to the Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference whether there will be more severe financial, monetary and real estate policy tightening signal; 2, the latest progress of vaccines in Europe and the United States. During Thanksgiving, the number of travelers in Europe and the United States has risen sharply, and three outbreaks are imminent. However, the recent three-phase clinical results of several mRNA vaccines have been relatively good, focusing on the impact of vaccine progress and the progress of infection in Europe and the United States on global sentiment; 3. Whether commodity prices will rise more than expected. Judging from the current inventory and economic data, the investment demand is still relatively strong. The prices of many commodities have reached the high points in 2017 or even 2011. Whether the prices will continue to exceed the expected upward trend of the economy may affect the market style and main attack direction.
Everbright Securities: focus on the procyclicality of stagflation and optional consumption of full callback
CICC: Style rebalancing in market tangle and paying attention to policy quantity return and price stability
In the past week, the market undervalued cyclical plate continued to lead the rise and the market style rebalancing, but the style change and the overall A-share index trend were more tangled, weaker than expected. On the one hand, it may be that the funds for chasing short-term game opportunities under the trend of A-share institutionalization are not as strong as before; on the other hand, the concern of policy exit may limit market funds to pursue cyclical plate.
On the whole, under the background that the economic data is still relatively strong and the global economic recovery trend is still continuing, the short-term recovery transaction may still be the main line, focusing on the undervalued and positive catalytic factors. At the same time, the market pays more attention to the impact of potential policy exit; after institutional investors have obtained good returns in recent years, the overall risk preference is not high near the end of the year, so we need to pay attention to the impact of these factors on the market. At the same time, the cumulative adjustment range of a few new economic sectors is not small. For example, some consumer electronics stocks can be considered to gradually buy into the market.
The market is still in a pattern of upward shocks. In Chinas sustained economic recovery, vaccine gradually approaching, Pro cyclical will be expected to continue to be the main line of A-share market, among which, the demand side has its own inventory cycle and industry cycle logic, and the supply side has the direction of contraction or capacity exit. The sustainability of these directions can exceed market expectations.
The industry focuses on: liquor, white electricity, automobile (including new energy automobile industry chain), chemical industry, machinery, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, insurance, banks, securities companies, military industry, semiconductor, etc.
Founder Securities: recovery continued to buy value, December will usher in the main wave market
Founder Securities believes that the main idea of industry allocation is: recovery continues, buy value. In November, the Shanghai composite index showed a slow upward trend, and stood at 3400 points for the first time since September. Among them, non-ferrous metals, steel, mining, automobile, banking and other pro cyclical plate led the rise, while the consumption growth plate such as medicine, media and computer led the decline. From the perspective of economic environment, policy environment and valuation cost performance, the market style has changed from growth consumption to pro cyclical. From the perspective of industry allocation, in December, the domestic economic and monetary policy environment remained friendly, and the index may continue to fluctuate and rise driven by the heavyweights, and there are still structural opportunities in the market. First of all, the economic data reflects the continuation of domestic economic recovery momentum. Under the logic of economic recovery, the inflection point of cyclical industry performance overlaps with the low valuation, and the value style market is expected to continue.
December will welcome the main rising trend at the end of next year and the beginning of the year. The domestic and international energy consumption is expected to accelerate to a new high of 6% in the early stage, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high of 6%, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high of 6%, and the domestic and foreign industries are expected to recover to a new high. On the other hand, the third quarter cargo policy report confirmed that liquidity has entered into a neutral environment, and the rate of interest rate rise in this round is not small, and the rate of subsequent rise will be slowed down.
YueKai Securities: the main line of recovery is getting better, focusing on the end of the year market
Recently, there has been a significant shift in the market style. The Shanghai stock index is driven up to the upper edge of the box driven by the big financial and cyclical plates, while the gem is near the bottom edge of the box. The market pays more attention to the financial sector represented by securities companies and banks, and pays close attention to the coordination of trading volume in the follow-up period. If the large-scale breakthrough is made, it will be good for the market to go up and open up the upward space. If the breakthrough fails, the market may continue to shake and digest.
Main line 2: restless main line in spring. As the year-end assessment of institutions is drawing to a close, many institutions have adjusted their positions and are ready to make arrangements for the next year to cash in the achievements of the profitable sectors this year. Focus on the products with higher prosperity, such as semiconductor, military industry, new energy vehicles and other leading varieties.
Guosheng Securities: cross year market has opened, along the three fronts actively participate
Continue to be optimistic about the current to the first quarter of next years cross year market. Under the multiple joint forces of global economic recovery, the digestion of external uncertainty and the rise of risk preference brought about by the warming of internal policy expectations, the market is expected to resonate upward, and the market will greatly exceed expectations. It is suggested to actively participate.
Source of this article: Ren Hui, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NBJ9607