The Middle East is back! Trump digging for Biden? Oil still flying?

category:Finance
 The Middle East is back! Trump digging for Biden? Oil still flying?


Bidens administration will be on the stage soon, and he himself has made it clear to restart the Iran nuclear talks. This is obviously not what trump wants to see, and Israel is even less willing to give Iran a breathing space. Now, it is not so easy for Biden to restart the Iran nuclear talks.

After the assassination, Iran vowed revenge, and the Middle East fell into panic again. So, is oil going to fly again?

Six key men were killed in 10 years

On the evening of 27th Beijing time, Mohsen fahrizad, head of the research and Innovation Institute of Irans defense ministry and chief nuclear scientist, was attacked by armed men near Tehran and died in a hospital.

According to the information from the news, fahrizad is an important nuclear scientist in Iran and the only Iranian nuclear research and development scientist with public name in the western world. U.S. intelligence agencies call him abd Qadir Khan of Iran, and compares fahrizads role in Irans nuclear research and development process to that of Pakistans chief scholar of nuclear weapons research and development.

Prior to 2003, fahrizad had been in the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency for a long time. In 2007, the United Nations confirmed that fahrizad was involved in the development of Irans nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Around 2010, fahrizad was transferred to Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard and became a senior officer of the Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that fahrizad secretly went to North Korea in 2013 to learn about the development technology of nuclear weapons. In 2018, Israeli intelligence agencies stole a large number of nuclear research and development materials from Iran and secretly transported them back to Israel. At a press conference that publicly displayed the information on nuclear research and development, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu specifically referred to fahrizad as the secret leader of Irans nuclear research and development process. Netanyahu stressed that please remember this man, showing the importance of fahrizad in the eyes of Israeli intelligence agencies.

Irans response

Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said he would thoroughly investigate the incident and severely punish the perpetrators and manipulators. Iranian President Rohani said that Irans defense ministry will strengthen effective deployment to fill this gap, and the Revolutionary Guard has put severe retaliation on the agenda.

On January 3 this year, U.S. air strikes at the International Airport in the capital of Iraq, and Sulaimani, commander of the Holy City Brigade of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, was assassinated. Then the Middle East fell into chaos. Iran quickly launched retaliatory action, and the US base in Iraq was attacked by Iranian missiles. A civilian aircraft from Iran was shot down by a missile. The situation was tense at one time.

Unlike the assassination of suleimani, no one came forward to take responsibility for the killing of fahrizad. So, who is the killer?

International politics is a big trading platform. U.S. Secretary of state pompeio visited Israel on November 19, and inspected the Jewish settlements in the West Bank of Jordan River and the Golan Heights. As an Israeli platform, pompeio became the first example of US Secretary of state. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the third Middle East War (Israel called the Six Day War) in 1967, and then included the Golan Heights in Israel. U.S. President trump recognized the Golan Heights as Israeli territory in 2019. When pompeio visited the local area, he pointed out that the past US presidents had refused to recognize it, but now we can not deny the decision that trump recognizes that the region is part of Israel.

Then on November 26, Israel launched an operation. On that day, Israel attacked a high ground in the quneitra area in the southern Damascus province of Syria from the occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli military said the missile accurately hit an Iranian Arsenal in the target area, causing a large number of casualties. On November 27, fahrizad was assassinated.

There are not so many things for no reason in the world. Before pompeios visit to Israel, it was revealed in the media that trump wanted to launch an attack on Iran, but the matter was pressed down by his staff. This led to pompeios trip to Israel. The purpose of this trip, there is a greater possibility that is to manipulate Israels actions against Iran. This action is in the interests of both the current US administration and Israel.

After trump was elected, the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and resumed the practice of comprehensive sanctions against Iran. In Israels eyes, the president is an angel because Israel does not want to give Iran a breathing space. Therefore, they also strongly support Trumps Middle East policy, implement the century agreement and cooperate with trump to suppress Iran.

According to the global network, Iranian nuclear physicist Mukhsin fahrizad was killed when the US aircraft carrier Nimitz battle group had just returned to the Gulf, causing speculation. The Israeli Times quoted Agence France Presse news agency as saying that a US Navy spokesman said that the return of the US Navy aircraft carrier battle group to the Gulf had nothing to do with any specific threat. The official also said the decision to return was made before news of the assassination of an Iranian scientist.

According to the Israeli times, Irans senior nuclear physicist, Mukhin fahrizad, was killed in an attack near the capital of Tehran on July 27, raising regional tensions. At present, no one has claimed responsibility for the assassination, but there are voices in Iran that the blame for the incident lies with Israel, a close ally of the United States. At present, anti American sentiment is rising in Iran. The Iranian people held demonstrations in the capital of Tehran, and hardliners chanted war on the United States, calling on the government not to engage in any so-called negotiations or surrender, and resolutely fight with the United States to the end.

Judging from the assassination in Sulaimani in early January, there is a short-term stimulus to oil prices. Oil distribution rose 3.7% on the same day. So, will it be stimulated again this time? From the performance of last Friday, also received a little positive stimulation, the variety reversed the intraday decline, closing up more than 1%.

Analysts believe that in the short term, the rise in oil prices depends on how much Iran is going to make. The medium and long-term trend still depends on the trend of economic fundamentals and the change of supply structure. Judging from the current situation, Iran may choose to be patient and wait for Biden to take office. But it cannot be ruled out that they will act in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil futures rose 7.2% in a single week, while U.S. crude oil futures rose 8%. Previously, AstraZeneca announced that its new crown vaccine was as effective as 90%. Several vaccine manufacturers said that the effectiveness was more than 90%, which stimulated the rise of oil prices. OPEC + is about to hold a meeting, with sources saying that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, are still inclined to postpone plans for oil production growth next year to support the market during the second wave of new outbreak and rising production in Libya. In a long period of time, with the emergence of vaccines, the epidemic situation may be in the dark before dawn. Once the world returns to normal, the economic prospects will be better, and the loose monetary policy can not exit quickly, so there will be some room for oil prices to rise. Source: Securities Companies in China source: Securities Times net editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Brent crude oil futures rose 7.2% in a single week, while U.S. crude oil futures rose 8%. Previously, AstraZeneca announced that its new crown vaccine was as effective as 90%. Several vaccine manufacturers said that the effectiveness was more than 90%, which stimulated the rise of oil prices. OPEC + is about to hold a meeting, with sources saying that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, are still inclined to postpone plans for oil production growth next year to support the market during the second wave of new outbreak and rising production in Libya. In a long period of time, with the emergence of vaccines, the epidemic situation may be in the dark before dawn. Once the world returns to normal, the economic prospects will be better, and the loose monetary policy can not exit quickly, so there will be some room for oil prices to rise.

Source: securities companies, China