In the past 10 days, banks and non bank finance in Shenyi industry have risen by 8.8% and 7.2% respectively, and the financial cycle has almost taken the top ten.
Data source: wind
So, this time the bank shares can really hold the banner, leading a share to launch a new wave of offensive?
Surprise and joy brought by A-share market
According to daoda, a partner of the daily economic news, the performance of the past week has been characterized by both surprise and joy. The biggest feature is the switch between high and low. The pro cyclical sectors with lower valuations continue to perform, while those with higher valuations, mainly on the gem, have been adjusted, especially in pharmaceutical stocks. On Wednesday, however, there was a nonsense slump in the market. At that time, many people were extremely depressed.
However, the main hot spots in the market did not cool down completely, and cyclical stocks such as nonferrous metals, coal, shipping and ports still performed strongly.
And through the November market, the auto stock plate, is also under pressure to go up. Last Friday, Changan Automobile rose sharply to a new stage high, and SAIC launched a new brand Zhiji automobile, which also rose by 8.54%, driving the whole automobile industry chain plate to rise collectively. In addition, hydrogen energy, military industry and other hot spots are still hot.
Generally speaking, the market is still relatively active.
Of course, the biggest contribution to the index is bank stocks. On the 27th, the sudden explosion of bank shares made the market cry out of surprise.
As of the end of the 27th, the banking sector rose 3.02%. According to wind data, it is rare to rank the first among 28 shenwanbao industries.
Whats more, ICBC (601398. SH) rose 5.89%, the first time since July 7s shock adjustment; China Construction Bank (601939. SH) also rose 4.3%. All bank stocks were red, which was the biggest contributor to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 indexs 12-year high. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index rose 1.54% to 3498.66 points, a new high since March 6, 2008.
The breakthrough of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is the high point of the bull market in 2015, which is of great market significance.
In addition, under the leadership of the large financial sector represented by banks, the market rose rapidly in the afternoon to close at 3400 points on the 27th.
The last big rise in bank stocks occurred in July this year. In the four trading days from July 1 to July 6, the banking sector (shenwanbao) rose by 16.85%, especially by 9.12% on July 6, and ICBC and CCB rose 8.53% on that day. At that time, some analysts believed that the market of bank shares benefited from the resonance of policy, capital and fundamentals.
Statistics also show that in the last 10 trading days, the banking sector rose 8.82%. For the recent rebound in bank stocks, especially the recent surge in the recent trading day, industry insiders analyze that one of the main reasons is the favorable stimulus from the central banks three quarterly reports.
In the third quarter of 2020 monetary policy implementation report released on November 26, 2020, there are three main points worthy of attention: the loan interest rate stabilized, the interest margin pressure was significantly reduced; the policy was orderly promoted, and the risk of small and medium-sized banks was paid attention to; LPR was embedded into FTP, and the risk of default of credit bonds was emphasized.
This logic is that with the recovery of macro-economy, banks have entered a new stage in which the pressure of profit growth is reduced, the interest margin gradually stabilizes, the asset growth rate remains high, and the credit cost is expected to decline.
Can bank stocks hold the banner of A-share market this week?
In July this year, the Shanghai Stock Index peaked at 3458, which was the result of the rise in bank stocks. The trend of ICBC at that time, on July 6, ICBC rose by 5.95%. After the high opening on July 7, it fell back, and then there was no more. Then, ICBC continued to fall, and the market announced that the band peaked. Other big market bank stocks, such as China Construction Bank and Bank of China, are also in a similar trend. Therefore, this time really still need to leave one more heart.
However, the current market is very different from the environment at that time. At that time, the whole market sentiment was very excited, and the explosive fund was constantly emerging, and the transaction volume of the two markets continuously exceeded trillion yuan. In the near future, SMIC, the favorite of A-share market, will be listed soon. Many factors interweave together, leading to the continuous adjustment of the market.
At present, the strength of the pro cyclical plate is supported by logic. With significant progress in the development of new coronal vaccine, the global expectation of economic recovery is relatively high. In addition, the uncertainty factors of the US election have been basically eliminated; ant group, the largest IPO project at the end of the year, has also been declared stranded; the latest central banks setting tone has also made the market not short of money; the default risk of permanent coal has turned around, which is also the release of risk for the unfortunate step on thunder banks.
In addition, the performance of insurance stocks seems to be more reassuring. Ping An of China has broken through the peak in July and reached a new high in the year.
There is hope that the market will further challenge the high point of a shares in the year
Monday is the last trading day of November. In November, the Shanghai stock index has risen by 5.70%, the Shenzhen composite index has risen by 3.43%, the gem index has fallen by 1.39%, and the Kechuang 50 index has also fallen slightly. The real big winners in November were Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai Shenzhen 300, both of which rose more than 6%.
The hot plate callback in the early stage of the recent period is relatively severe. In contrast, bank stocks with undervalued, low positions, high dividends and improved fundamental margin become the first choice for capital allocation, which is more in line with the demand for the funds for adjusting positions. According to first finance and economics quoted an equity mutual fund manager in Beijing as saying.
The valuation is low, and the upward trend will be obvious in a period of time in the future. In contrast, consumer, electronic and other sectors have the pressure of valuation digestion in the short term. He also believes that the banking sector may become a better choice for capital defensive allocation.
Many securities companies are optimistic about the financial sector. Zhao Wei of Founder Securities said that at present, Chinas economy has entered a new economic cycle, and its economic basis is Finance + technology. Only when the two rise together will the market become stronger. CITIC Mingming said in the latest annual investment strategy report that a shares should grasp the three main lines of performance driven, undervalued repair and industrial policy. Among them, low value plates such as consumption and pro cyclical plate, financial style index and policy driven theme investment plate should be paid attention to.
According to daoda, in the short term, the market still has the hope of further challenging the Shanghai indexs high point in the year. As long as cyclical stocks, especially bank stocks, do not fall back, then this weeks market is worth looking forward to.
However, after entering December, what we most look forward to is whether the cross annual market can be launched. Here, daoda points out a risk point. The market value of the lifting of the ban in December this year ranks in the top three of this year. This pressure can not be ignored. Of course, whether this factor will become the most important factor affecting the market and what will happen to the market in December of this year remains to be further observed by the market. (the content of this paper is for reference only, not as the basis for investment. Editor: Cheng Peng, Du Hengfeng, Du Bo proofread, Zhao Yun, comprehensive daoda number of daily economic news, first financial information, wall street news, wind, etc. source: Daily Economic News Editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368
However, after entering December, what we most look forward to is whether the cross annual market can be launched. Here, daoda points out a risk point. The market value of the lifting of the ban in December this year ranks in the top three of this year. This pressure can not be ignored.
Of course, whether this factor will become the most important factor affecting the market and what will happen to the market in December of this year remains to be further observed by the market.