Experts suggest: in the next five years, the total level of house prices will not rise

category:Finance
 Experts suggest: in the next five years, the total level of house prices will not rise


Recently, the reporter of China Times learned that at present, the long-term rental apartment institutions that used to take the house at a high price have some problems, such as early termination and so on. Even large-scale leading enterprises in the field of long-term rent can not be spared, and a large number of institutions have terminated contracts with landlords and tenants in advance.

Termination of contract with landlord in advance

Wang Li (not his real name) told the China times that in September 2018, he entrusted his house in Chaoyang District of Beijing to a well-known large-scale long-term apartment institution. The term of the contract was three years, with a monthly rent of 6100 yuan. However, in early November, before the lease term arrived, the agency asked to terminate the contract with Wang Li or to reduce the rent through agreement. There are two solutions proposed by the agency. One is that both parties terminate the contract, and the institution pays two months rent as liquidated damages to the landlord. The landlord needs to return 18000 yuan of decoration fee and service quality deposit; the other is to reduce the rent by agreement, and the rent is changed to 5100 yuan per month.

The staff of the organization communicate with us in a rude manner, and there is no clear reason for the termination of the contract. It gives us a lot of pressure to say that the termination conditions are like this, which blocks our heart every day when we think about this matter. Wang Li said that she could not accept it. She thought that the contract had not expired, and the Agency proposed to break the contract, but asked the owner to return the decoration money, which was obviously unreasonable.

Although the agency still pays the rent to Wang Li on time every month, Wang Li is worried about whether this organization will run away like other long-term apartments, afraid that the rent can not be returned, and there will be conflicts with the tenants.

And Wang Li encountered similar landlords there are many, a national rights QQ group has reached more than 1400 people. Wang Li said that the organization has been breaking down each other recently. It will interview the landlords separately. If the landlords are good at talking, they will probably sign a termination agreement according to their conditions, and most of the losses will be borne by the landlords.

It is understood that most of the long-term rental apartment institutions have signed a large number of houses from 2017 to 2018, but since this year, the rent in Beijing has declined, and the profit space of the institutions has become smaller and smaller, which makes it difficult for the long-term rental apartment institutions which mainly rely on the two landlord mode to survive. Li Li introduced that in 2018, when the institution signed a contract with itself, the rent was 6100 yuan, and the price for renting out the platform after decoration was 7000 yuan, but the market price in 2020 could not reach this level. China Times reporter looked at the relevant real estate platform and found that the monthly rent of the same house type in the community has been reduced to about 6500 yuan, and the monthly rent of some houses has been marked to 5500 yuan.

At the same time of large-scale termination of the contract with the landlord, there are many cases of forced termination of the contract by the platform. Some tenants reflect that they live well in the house, but they have been informed by the platform to terminate the contract recently, but no compensation for breach of contract has been made. Some tenants also said that only through frequent communication and reporting problems to the regulatory authorities for many times, the institution would pay liquidated damages.

As for how to deal with the early termination of the contract, as well as the development plan of the enterprise, the reporter of China Times has sent the questions to the above-mentioned enterprises, but as of the time of publication, no reply has been received.

Since the beginning of the year, the black swan incident has accelerated the explosion of a large wave of long-term apartment rental enterprises, including Qingke, eggshell and other big brand enterprises, with negative news spreading.

Bai Wenxi, vice president of China enterprise capital alliance and chief economist of IPG in China, said in an interview with China times that the contraction strategy of long-term rental apartment institutions and the termination of contracts with landlords and tenants in large numbers is a manifestation of self-help of the institution, which shows that the capital chain of the institution has been very tense. In the past few years, due to the scale war, the cost of housing acquisition of institutions was very high. Under the market conditions of downward rent this year, it was very difficult for institutions to maintain operation.

Why are there so many problems with long-term apartments? Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui think tank, told Huaxia times that, like P2P and bike sharing, supervision has been relaxed in recent years in order to innovate, resulting in serious deviation of some emerging industries under the control of capital, which has made society and consumers pay a heavy price.

According to Hu Jinghuis analysis, the frequent explosion of long-term rental apartments is rooted in the inherent defects of its business model, which are characterized by high input and low output, long-term collection and short-term payment, and short-term investment. With the support of capital, many long-term apartments have been competing for high-price housing, especially in 2017 and 2018, many long-term apartments collected housing resources from owners with rents 20% - 40% higher than the market price. In order to compete for tenants, they rent at a low price and lower the rent to ship.

How to supervise the long-term rental apartments and prevent the industry from falling into the abyss has become a major concern of the industry. In this regard, Hu Jinghui said that the supervision of long-term rental apartments can refer to the banking supervision. Funds and deposits should be entered into the fund supervision account designated by the government. The capital in and out should be visible and controllable. There should be a deposit or reserve system. The money beyond the reserve can be used, but rules should be established.

In the face of market changes, what changes will happen to the long-term rental apartment industry in the future? Chen Xiao said that from the perspective of long-term rental apartment institutions themselves, with the increasing concentration of the industry and the impact of the epidemic, this kind of barbaric expansion mode is no longer suitable for the current market environment. In the future, long-term rental apartment institutions are bound to move to the road of refined operation, putting forward higher requirements for the operation capacity of the institutions, and facing innovation in service level and product design And improve, the industry will be more refined, standardized direction of development.

Is there a broad prospect for this industry? According to Bai Wenxis analysis, housing rental is a rigid demand in the market, and long-term rental apartments will still have a broad living space in the future. Now the state has introduced a lot of regulatory measures, including capital supervision and other directions, which determines that enterprises with weak capital strength or model problems will be eliminated by the market, leaving good enterprises, and the industry will be more healthy after the waves.

Source of this article: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of CFA_ NB12679