Chinese reporters from securities companies have noted that the net value of pharmaceutical theme funds has decreased significantly in the near future. In addition, affected by the expectation of centralized purchase of drugs, the public funds significantly reduced their holdings of pharmaceutical stocks in the third quarter, and the two leading pharmaceutical companies faded out of the top ten heavy positions of the fund. Meanwhile, the A-share biomedical index has fallen more than 30% since August.
Does drug purchasing weaken the profitability of pharmaceutical stocks?
Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hunan and Guangxi have formed a purchasing alliance to carry out the first batch of commonly used drugs in Chongqing. A total of 15 varieties and 187 product specifications were selected, with the highest price reduction of 83.54%, according to Xinhua.
Prior to this, the national medical insurance bureau just issued the notice on the development of the second batch of centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables data rapid collection and price detection (hereinafter referred to as the notice) shows that the second batch of medical consumables list mainly includes: artificial hip joint, artificial knee joint, defibrillator, occluder, orthopedic materials, stapler six categories. As soon as the news came out, it aroused the high attention of the market.
Industry insiders believe that in the centralized purchasing environment, large enterprises have outstanding advantages in both the competitiveness of winning the bid in the stock market and the competitiveness of R & D layout. If the scope of centralized purchasing is expanded in the future, it will inevitably lead to further concentration of the industry, and the leading enterprises should focus on it.
Specifically, on November 5 this year, the first batch of national centralized collection of coronary stents was opened, and 10 enterprises, including minimally invasive medical, Lepu medical, Jiwei medical, Eason technology, Medtronic, and Jinrui Kelly, were proposed to win the bid. The price of the winning bid caused a shock in the industry. The unit price of the selected products ranged from 469 yuan to 798 yuan, a decrease of more than 90%. The winning bracket fell from 10000 yuan to 100 yuan. This is the first time that high-value consumables have been centralized purchased at the national level, and it is also a milestone event of centralized procurement of medical consumables.
Take Lepu medical, a listed company of a shares, as an example. In 2017, the ex factory price of its stent was 3384 yuan / set, and the gross profit rate accounted for nearly 80%. Obviously, centralized purchase will reduce the profit of the enterprise to a certain extent. At the same time, institutional funds have long had expectations for centralized purchasing. Chinese correspondents from securities companies noted that the two QFII significantly reduced their holdings of Lepu medical in the third quarter, and the share price of the latter fell by about 30% in the last four months.
Medicine theme fund is not fragrant?
In the last month, due to price reduction expectations, the worst performance of net worth defense capability is the pharmaceutical theme fund.
The Chinese correspondent of the securities firm found that the net value of the pharmaceutical theme fund of ICBC Credit Suisse fund Co., Ltd. - ICBC medical health fund, dropped nearly 10% in the last month.
In addition, RONGTONG fund, Chuang Jin Hexin fund and other pharmaceutical theme funds also fell by more than 9% and 7% respectively in the same period.
The decline risk of pharmaceutical theme funds in the fourth quarter can be seen from the changes of the top ten heavy positions of public funds.
It can be seen from the above changes that Changchun hi tech and Hengrui pharmaceutical are no longer the love of fund managers, but have become the main objects for public fund managers to reduce their holdings. According to the position data, in the third quarter, the public funds held 4.7287 million shares and 223 million shares respectively, which were reduced by 2.383 million shares and 43 million shares compared with the second quarter; the number of fund products held by Changchun hi tech decreased from 473 to 278, and the number of funds holding Hengrui medicine decreased from 600 to 454.
Since most of the operators of QFII are active public fund holders or fund managers who are converted from public to private, the strong reduction of public funds holdings in pharmaceutical stocks also explains the operation logic of QFII. From the reduction of pharmaceutical shares, Shandong Pharmaceutical glass was reduced by QFII about 8 million shares in the third quarter, sannuo biological and Hengrui pharmaceutical were also significantly reduced, with more than 6 million shares and 4 million shares respectively.
Fund research pharmaceutical stocks value long-term logic
The impact of centralized procurement of drugs and medical devices on the performance and stock price of listed companies has become the core topic of fund managers research on pharmaceutical stocks.
For example, fund managers pay more attention to the A-share medical device leading company Mindray medical. In the investor relations activity record disclosed on November 18, the fund manager responded to such issues as the impact of centralized purchasing on the companys business. At the research activity participated by Ruiyuan fund and Penghua Fund, Mindray medical said that the centralized purchase promoted by the state medical insurance bureau is mainly aimed at the field of drugs and high-value consumables. The products of the companys three major business lines do not involve drugs and high-value consumables, and the orthopedic consumables of other products have no impact on the companys business because of its small proportion of income.
Tianfeng Securities believes that the fourth quarter is the performance vacuum period of the pharmaceutical sector, and it is also a period of intensive implementation of pharmaceutical policies. As the end of the year approaches, policies including medical insurance access negotiations will be implemented, and the uncertainty of the pharmaceutical stage is expected to be eliminated. At the same time, from the perspective of next year, the pharmaceutical sector will gradually enter the valuation switching stage, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance The track that is expected to continue its rapid growth includes vaccines, CXO, medical devices, prescription system and medical services.
Everbright Securities suggests that investors focus on the long-term and wait for the layout opportunities brought about by high-quality track adjustment. At present, it is recommended to pay attention to the blood products with quarterly demand recovery + supply becoming tense, chemiluminescence in IVD, vaccine with epidemic catalysis, medical protection, chain drugstores with advantages in both performance and valuation, CMO, leading high-end equipment leader, etc., and wait for the layout opportunities brought by the adjustment. Centralized purchasing will not change the logic of pharmaceutical stocks. The logic of medicine is aging and innovative medicine, which has the attribute of science and technology. a fund manager in South China stressed to Chinese securities dealers that the centralized purchase of drugs or devices will only make the market concentration higher and higher, the market share and competitiveness of leading stocks will be stronger, and the high valuation of core assets of pharmaceutical stocks will be in the long-term logic And its hard to change easily. At the same time, the biomedical index of a shares has fallen by more than 30% since the beginning of August. The negative impact of centralized purchasing on pharmaceutical stocks has been largely digested by market adjustment. Source of this article: Zhong Qiming, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NF5619
Everbright Securities suggests that investors focus on the long-term and wait for the layout opportunities brought about by high-quality track adjustment. At present, it is recommended to pay attention to the blood products with quarterly demand recovery + supply becoming tense, chemiluminescence in IVD, vaccine with epidemic catalysis, medical protection, chain drugstores with advantages in both performance and valuation, CMO, leading high-end equipment leader, etc., and wait for the layout opportunities brought by the adjustment.
At the same time, the biomedical index of a shares has fallen by more than 30% since the beginning of August. The negative impact of centralized purchasing on pharmaceutical stocks has been largely digested by market adjustment.