Where is the ceiling of Weilai catching up with BYD and surpassing SAIC new energy vehicle?

category:Finance
 Where is the ceiling of Weilai catching up with BYD and surpassing SAIC new energy vehicle?


In fact, since the beginning of this year, Teslas share price has continued to rise, from $80 / share at the beginning of the year to nearly $600 / share, with an annual increase of 600%.

//Teslas third quarter performance hit a record high//

On October 22, local time, Tesla released its third quarter financial statements. According to the financial report, its Q3 total revenue was $8.771 billion, up 39% year-on-year, including $7.611 billion in automobile business revenue, an increase of 47%, including an integral income of $397 million. In addition, the gross profit of automobile business was $2.105 billion, with a gross profit margin of 27.7%. Net profit was $331 million, up 131% year on year.

In terms of production capacity: in the first three quarters of this year, Tesla delivered 318900 vehicles, and confirmed at the Q3 performance meeting that it would deliver 500000 vehicles by the end of this year, that is, the gap of delivery in the fourth quarter was 181000. In terms of factories, the annual production capacity of model 3 / Y in Fremont factory of Tesla USA increased from 400000 to 500000 (Q4 can produce 12.5), and Shanghai factorys annual production capacity of model 3 increased from 200000 to 250000 (Q4 can produce 6.25). From this point of view, 184500 vehicles can be produced in the remaining three months.

Based on the growth of sales volume and the improvement of profit margin, Tesla Q3 achieved a profit of 331 million US dollars. Tesla still has $1.4 billion in free cash flow and $14.5 billion in cash reserves, able to cope with all kinds of situations and spending needs. In addition, Teslas German plant has begun to take shape, and mass production is expected to be achieved in 2021; the Texas plant has started foundation construction.

//Inclusion in the S & P 500 index or re absorption//

After US stocks closed on November 16, S & P Dow Jones Indexes announced that Tesla shares would be included in the S & P 500 index on December 21. Affected by the above news, Tesla rose nearly 13% after opening on the 17th.

According to GAAP, the company must make profits for four consecutive quarters. At the same time, the S & P index committee decides whether to include the company based on its quantitative and qualitative research.

As of the third quarter of 2020, Tesla has been profitable for five consecutive quarters, meeting the inclusion criteria. In the third quarter of this year, Teslas net profit reached $143 million, with total revenue of $8.771 billion, which was rated as the best financial report in history.

And Goldman Sachs analysts said in their report today that with the overall rebound of the stock market, Tesla shares are expected to continue to grow significantly after being included in the standard & Poors 500 index.

Of the current 189 large cap core funds, 157 have a total of about $500 billion in assets under management and have not held Tesla shares until September 30, Goldman said in the report

Assuming the funds choose to hold Tesla with benchmark weights, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they would need to buy $8bn of Tesla shares, about 2% of Teslas market value.

With the rapid growth of its market value, Tesla has recently won the support of some long-term skeptics. For the first time in more than three years, Morgan Stanley gave Tesla an an overweight rating. Meanwhile, Teslas target share price was raised from $360 to $540.

//Domestic Tesla Model 3 enters Europe//

On November 28, Xinhua News Agency reported that the first batch of more than 3000 Tesla Model 3 cars made in China, which were exported to Europe, arrived at the port of zeebrughe in Belgium on the evening of 26 after more than a months sea voyage, and began loading and unloading operations on 27 November. Tesla exported about 7000 vehicles to Europe, which were shipped in two ships. The first cargo ship arrived on the evening of 26th loaded about 3600 cars, and the second cargo ship is expected to arrive at zebrukh port in early December. The cars will be shipped to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland and other European countries for sale.

It is reported that this batch of standard endurance upgraded model 3 are produced by Tesla Shanghai Super factory, and the exported vehicles are consistent with the models in the Chinese market. Recent reports indicate that Teslas export of domestic model 3 to Europe will increase significantly in the coming year. Tesla will produce 550000 cars at its Shanghai plant in 2021, of which about 110000 will be shipped to Europe.

Tao Lin, vice president of Tesla, said in an interview with Xinhua news agency that Tesla has witnessed the recovery of Chinas economy under the new epidemic situation, which has strengthened the worlds confidence in Chinas market and economy. Tao said the export of Chinese made cars to Europe is a milestone in the development of Teslas Shanghai Super factory. The design of Shanghai Super factory is fully in line with international standards, and its products can meet the diversified consumer demands from all over the world.

//The three swordsmen of new energy vehicles in China//

Recently, the stock price of new automobile manufacturing forces represented by NiO has soared. The shares of xpev and Li, which are listed in the United States, are also soaring. Since November this year, the stock price of Xiaopeng automobile has risen by more than 260%, that of ideal automobile has risen by more than 110%, and that of Weilai automobile has risen by more than 70%. Although the stock price of new forces of car making has also fluctuated briefly recently, the overall trend is still good.

In the view of Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Hong Kong Federation of trade unions, the price of new energy vehicles is higher in the US capital market, and there is a certain bubble. Valuation is the evaluation of capital market, which has no practical significance in promoting the development of enterprises. However, the high valuation reflects the mentality and expectations of investors. The bubble in capital markets is also a reflection of the future. American investors agree with Teslas development route and the development trend of new energy vehicles in the future. Therefore, it gives a high valuation to the new Chinese automobile manufacturers listed in the United States, which is also a good thing. In addition, compared with the weak competition of new energy vehicles in Europe, China has a number of new car making forces emerging, and there is no new car making force in other countries around the world. Therefore, it is easier for Weilai automobile and others to obtain the overvalued value of American capital market, which is also the evaluation performance of high valuation of some Chinese industries in the international market.

As for whether the stock price is overvalued, Li Xiang, CEO of ideal automobile, once said in an interview: although enterprise Fundamentals (including sales, revenue and other core factors) will have a certain impact on the stock price, the fluctuation of stock price is more determined by the market.

//Weilai surpasses BYD in market value//

As of November 27, the U.S. stock market closed, the total market value of Weilai automobile was 72.84 billion U.S. dollars (about 478.84 billion yuan), surpassing BYD to become the highest market value automobile enterprise in China. The former big brother SAIC Group ranked third, and even had the risk of being overtaken by Xiaopeng automobile and ideal car, a new force of car making.

//New energy vehicle companies still need to refuel//

Although the market value of new energy vehicle companies has risen rapidly, there is still a long way to go from the perspective of performance. In terms of the proportion of revenue in the first three quarters of this year of automobile companies with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, SAIC Group ranked first with 497.8 billion yuan, accounting for 64%; BYD followed closely with 105 billion yuan; while the revenue of Weilai, ideality and Xiaopeng in the first three quarters totaled 17 billion yuan, accounting for only 2%.

//SAIC Group creates Zhiji automobile to carry out self revolution//

SAIC announced on the evening of November 26 that in order to speed up the building of independent high-end intelligent pure electric vehicle brand, the company plans to jointly invest with Zhang Jiang hi tech and Hengxu capital to establish a Shanghai Yuanjie intelligent technology equity investment fund partnership (limited partnership), with a total subscribed capital of 7.2 billion yuan, including 5.399 billion yuan, 1.8 billion yuan and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively 01 million yuan. The fund plans to make a special investment with Alibaba (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd. (including its designated subordinate investors) in the high-end intelligent pure electric vehicle project (tentatively named Zhiji automobile).

In response, SAICs Director Secretary replied on the interactive platform that SAICs research and development of new energy vehicles covers plug-in strong hybrid, pure electric, fuel cell and other technical routes. The company has launched a number of advanced passenger and commercial vehicle new energy vehicle products, and has fully mastered the three core technologies of battery, electronic control and electric drive. In 2019, 185000 new energy vehicles will be sold, with a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. In the first half of 2020, the company achieved sales of 58000 new energy vehicles, which surpassed the overall market of new energy vehicles by 12 percentage points.

SAIC said that Zhiji automobile will become the new carrier of SAICs transformation and development. On the one hand, the new company will break the traditional mode of heavy asset operation of automobile enterprises, focus more on technological innovation and application, and create a new operation mode by integrating and utilizing the advantages of SAIC and other partners in R & D, manufacturing, marketing and other fields.

On the other hand, the new company will completely subvert the traditional relationship between automobile companies and users in commodity trading. Through artificial intelligence and big data, the new company will make users become the core driving force of automobile value chain, break the boundary between users and enterprises, realize co creation, symbiosis and sharing between users and enterprises, and create a new era of user value enterprises.

According to reports, Zhiji automobile, as a brand-new user-oriented automobile science and technology innovation company, is committed to becoming the implementer of travel reform in the intelligent era. It will adhere to the two-way development of mechanism and technological innovation, symbiosis and win-win of user and enterprise value, and make every effort to explore the realization of software defined automobile and create a new era of user value enterprise.

Since 2018, new four modernizations (electrification, intelligent networking, sharing and internationalization) has become one of the most important strategies to lead SAIC Groups innovation and development.

On May 10, 2020, SAIC r automobile was officially released; on August 13, the first flagship car er6 of SAIC high-end pure electric vehicle brand r was officially launched; on September 17, R automobile Beijing delivery center and seven experience centers were launched; on November 20, R automobiles marvelr 5g intelligent electric SUV officially announced the pre-sale price and policy at the 2020 Guangzhou International Auto Show. In a short period of half a year, qualitative change is taking place rapidly.

(wind integrated first finance and economics, China Foundation news, etc.)