CITIC Securities: Pro cyclical main line is expected to continue to the first quarter of next year
CITIC Securities Qin Peijing team released todays strategy research paper pointed out that a shares are in the trans annual cycle of slow growth. In the future, new overseas easing measures are expected to boost the global risk appetite. The domestic economy will continue to be stable and sound, and the policy will remain stable. It is expected that the behavior of institutional position adjustment at the end of the year will promote the pro cyclical plate market to continue to the first quarter of next year.
CITIC Securities believes that A-share is in a slow growth period driven by continuous improvement of fundamentals, and the pro cyclical relative prosperity and valuation advantage will further strengthen the plate market. In terms of configuration, the pro cyclical industry sector suggests continuing to pay attention to basic metals, energy metals and chemical industry; optional consumer sector, maintaining the previous continuous recommendation, focusing on household appliances, automobiles, liquor, home furnishings, hotels and scenic spots in the recovery of travel in the epidemic era after benefiting; in the undervalued sector, it is suggested to focus on economy, policy and profitability to jointly catalyze banks; at the same time, short-term construction should be carried out It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of leading stocks in the pharmaceutical sector after the implementation of centralized purchase.
Huatai Securities: procyclical plate repair is expected to continue in time and space
Huatai Securities believes that the repair of Pro cyclical plate is expected to continue in both time and space. Considering the interest rate level, vaccine news, etc., the style of A-share in December may be further balanced to value, and the ranking of financial and real estate stocks is bank > Insurance > Securities > real estate.
This round is different from the historical credit cycle, and the logic of banks and real estate is differentiated. Compared with the end of last year, the Pb index of banks still has a large space to repair, and the insurance index has been restored to the corresponding level; the internal repair sequence of banks is in line with the market style, first repairing the growth banks, and then repairing the low valuation banks; the certainty of the economic fundamentals repair is higher than that of the A-share market It is superior to securities companies.
In December, it is also suggested to pay attention to the short-term opportunities of the industry brought about by the timing factors such as export, cold winter and vaccine news, such as gas, coal, aviation, airport, etc. In 2021, along with the global re inflation and the rebound of manufacturing investment, we propose to take bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.
Haitong Securities: two markets appear obvious differentiation market, red envelope market at the end of the year can still be expected
Haitong Securities pointed out that overall, the Shanghai stock index is located above the central rail, and near the upper selling line. The gem is located below the middle rail. Therefore, from the perspective of the pattern, the Shanghai composite index is stronger than the gem index. It is worth mentioning that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.54% on Friday, breaking through the bull market peak in 2015 and reaching a new high in the past 12 years. This performance is particularly striking in the recent environment of general profit making effect. Similarly, the CSI 300 index is also significantly stronger than other composite indexes. The result of market differentiation is that the rise or fall will be involved by the other party, and it is difficult to form a joint force. The most typical case is that one side spirals up, while the other side spirals down (like the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and gem index in 2017).
At present, the most desirable situation is that the strong side can drive the weak side, so as to turn the situation around. No matter how the next step evolves, I believe that with the gradual end of the shock structure, the balance will be broken in some way. At the moment, we need to maintain moderate vigilance, but at the same time, we can still look forward to the end of the red envelope market.
In addition, Chinas stock market outlook for 2021 was released by Haitong strategy Xun Yu Gang on Saturday. It is believed that next year will enter a bull market bubble driven by earnings and sentiment. In 2019, the market was in the bull market incubation period driven by liquidity. This year is a bull market outbreak with two wheels driven by fundamentals and funds. In 2021, the market will enter a bull market bubble driven by fundamental and emotional aspects. It is estimated that in 2021, the accumulated net profit of all a shares owned by the parent company will grow by 15% on a year-on-year basis. The market sentiment will further move up from the current 60 degrees, and next year will be a year of stocks inspiring people.
Zhongyuan Securities: A shares will return to growth style in 2021
Zhongyuan Securities said that in 2021, the domestic fundamentals will continue to recover after the epidemic situation, and will gradually turn into the active replenishment cycle. The earnings performance of a shares will continue to improve and the central stock market will fluctuate upward. In 2021, under the influence of capital market reform, the opening of the 14th five year plan and cyclical factors, the asset side structure of A-share will be further optimized obviously, and the capital side will be optimized from the total amount to the structure In 2021, the division of inventory cycle and the switching of profit power source lead to the increasingly obvious differentiation of recovery process among industries, and A-share is expected to return to the growth style again.
Tianfeng Securities: the long-term investment value of Kechuang 50ETF is significant
Tianfeng Securities believes that despite the adjustment of the science and technology innovation board in the past week, the fund continues to allocate Kechuang 50ETF. Since the first four Kechuang 50etfs were listed on November 16, although the Kechuang 50 index has fallen by 3.42%, funds have been buying Kechuang 50etfs against the trend. Overall, as of November 26, the total shares and total net assets of the four Kechuang 50ETF funds increased by 21% and 15.9% compared with the same period on the listing date, and increased by 31.5% and 23% respectively compared with the same period on the share conversion date.
From the perspective of the whole market, it is a trend to allocate funds to the science and technology innovation board. Since the opening of Q3 science and technology innovation board in 2019, the stock market value of active equity fund positions on the science and technology innovation board has increased from 905 million yuan in 2019q3 to 36.296 billion yuan in 2020q3, with a significant trend of continuous allocation; at the same time, the number of funds holding positions on the science and technology innovation board has also increased from 48 in 2019q3 to 479 in 2020q3, and the number of funds that choose to allocate science and technology innovation board has increased to 10 times.
On the one hand, the threshold setting and the trend of funds entering the stock market make a large number of investors participate in the investment of science and technology innovation board through ETF. In addition, the new wave of science and technology + domestic substitution trend is the current dividend of the times, and the long-term investment value of the science and technology innovation board is more significant.
Zhongtai Securities: differentiation will continue in 2021
Li Xunlei, an economist with China and Thailand, said that on the whole, the change of macro environment is the core force that leads to the big trend rotation of interest rate and stock market. The key to determine the future market style is the strength of economic recovery and the trend of monetary policy. The pattern of structural differentiation in 2021 should continue, because it is a major trend under the guidance of stock economy.
From the perspective of PE and Pb valuation level of A-share market, most of the cyclical industries are at the historical low level, while the valuation level of the good track industry is mostly at the historical high level, such as electronics, medicine and biology, food and beverage, household appliances, leisure services, automobile and other industries; while banking, real estate, public utilities, architectural decoration, commerce, mining, non-profit, etc The valuation level of banks, finance and others is at a historical low. Therefore, there is a possibility of mean reversion next year.
Zheshang Securities: aviation, highway transportation and industrial metals benefit more from economic recovery
From the perspective of horizontal comparison of big technologies, combined with winds consistent profit forecast, combined with the profit growth rate and valuation level in 2020 and 2021, we can focus on three clues: first, in terms of growth in 2021, consumer electronics, electric vehicles and Internet of vehicles are dominant; second, in terms of month on month changes, the profit growth rate in 2021 of Xinchuang and Internet of things is significantly higher than that in 2020; thirdly, the profit in 2021 is higher Lis growth rate ranked first, and it was further improved compared with that in 2020, including semiconductor design, military materials and cloud computing.
In terms of horizontal comparison of large consumption, combined with winds consistent profit forecast, combined with the profit growth rate and valuation level in 2020 and 2021, the optional categories are significantly superior, including hotels, films, tourism, tax-free, education, new retail, etc.
Founder Securities believes that the main idea of industry allocation is: recovery continues, buy value. In November, the Shanghai composite index showed a slow upward trend, and stood at 3400 points for the first time since September. Among them, non-ferrous metals, steel, mining, automobile, banking and other pro cyclical plate led the rise, while the consumption growth plate such as medicine, media and computer led the decline. From the perspective of economic environment, policy environment and valuation cost performance, the market style has changed from growth consumption to pro cyclical. From the perspective of industry allocation, in December, the domestic economic and monetary policy environment remained friendly, and the index may continue to fluctuate and rise driven by the heavyweights, and there are still structural opportunities in the market. First of all, the economic data reflects the continuation of domestic economic recovery momentum. Under the logic of economic recovery, the inflection point of cyclical industry performance overlaps with the low valuation, and the value style market is expected to continue.
December will welcome the main rising trend at the end of next year and the beginning of the year. On the one hand, the global economy is accelerating recovery, with resonance at home and abroad, industrial metals and energy prices hitting new highs, domestic economic production and consumption continue to improve in a two-way manner, consumption, services and manufacturing industries and other early vulnerable sectors are accelerating to make up, all of which are back to the level before the epidemic, and the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to return to about 6%. On the other hand, the third quarter cargo policy report confirmed that liquidity has entered into a neutral environment, and the rate of interest rate rise in this round is not small, and the rate of subsequent rise will be slowed down.
Guotai Junan Securities: a new round of high business cycle of manufacturing industry has started, and the pro cyclical plate is worth looking forward to
Facing the second wave of the current global economic recovery, Guotai Junan macro and strategy team based on the export point of view, at the same time saw the stock cycle resonance between China, the United States and Europe, and a new round of high business cycle of Chinas manufacturing industry has started. It thinks that the pro cyclical sectors such as home appliances, home furnishings, consumer electronics, automobiles, basic chemicals, color, machinery and equipment are worth looking forward to.
Combined with Guotai Junans exclusive economic kinetic energy index, Guotai Junan macro team believes that the current leading economic indicators show that the short-term momentum is relatively strong, and the recovery is still advancing in depth. It is estimated that Chinas economic growth rate may reach 9% in 2021.
GF Securities that this weeks earnings recovery signal is still positive. On the one hand, the Q3 central banks monetary policy implementation report gives positive evaluation on economic recovery; on the other hand, high-frequency industrial enterprise profits and industrial product price data are still improving: 1.from January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises turned from negative to positive; 2. The equipment manufacturing industry related to the export chain still maintained a high-speed profit growth; 3. The profit of upstream resource goods recovered under the trend of continuous price rise In April and October, the inventory of finished products is still falling, but the trend of replenishment of manufacturing structure continues, and we continue to pay attention to the intersection industry of PPI rising by items + replenishment of capacity products + stable gross profit; 5. The trend of industrial product price rise continues, which echoes with the profits of industrial enterprises.
The profit is stronger, the valuation dimension is reduced again, and the quarter after the weighted cost of loan reaches the bottom is favorable to the pro cyclical style, and the configuration deepens the dimension reduction of valuation: 1. Under the opening up of export chain and domestic interaction, the boom speeds up the optional consumption / service (automobile, leisure service, aviation); 2. The price rise or demand improvement is combined with the capacity / inventory cycle to start the manufacturing industry (industrial metals, glass, general machinery) (3) underestimate and allocate large finance (Banking and insurance) at the boom turning point. Theme investment focuses on the reform of state-owned enterprises (Shanghai Shenzhen state-owned assets regional experiment).