The procyclical sector, including bank stocks, is the preferred object of foreign investment in the near future. A head of securities companies published research reports that banks will usher in a similar big market in 2016-2018.
The third quarter monetary policy implementation report recently released by the central bank shows that the loan interest rate has risen by 6 basis points, which may mean that the bottom of interest rate has been formed, and the interest rate is forming an upward trend, which is good for banks.
Foreign investment sees more a shares
On November 27, driven by bank stocks, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index continued to pull up in the end, closing at the highest point of 3498.66, breaking through the high in June 2015 and creating a new high in more than 12 years, which is the historical high of the index since March 5, 2008. The Shanghai Composite Index also rose to 3400.
A number of foreign investment banks have given high allocation and over allocation to a shares in their prospects and strategies for 2021.
A few days ago, Morgan Stanley released its economic and asset outlook report for 2021, which gave the MSCI China stock market and A-share the continued over allotment rating. It continued to hold an optimistic position on a shares, believing that the valuation is still attractive. The 14th five year plan will provide support, and its weight in the MSCI index may be further increased. Next year, however, may not be as good as this year.
Goldman Sachs held a media conference call on Chinas macroeconomic outlook and capital market dynamics in 2021. At the meeting, the latest forecast was made on Chinas economic growth rate, policy arrangement, RMB exchange rate and capital market in the next year: for the RMB exchange rate, Goldman Sachs said that it was very optimistic.
For Chinas stock market, Goldman Sachs still recommends high allocation. In terms of global markets, Goldman Sachs believes that with a significant rebound in the global economy next year, next year should be the highest absolute return on stocks since 2017.
Procyclicality has become the latest target of foreign investment
From the industry point of view, since November, the growth of stock market value, northbound funds obviously prefer Pro cyclical undervalued plate. Among them, the banking sector is the most popular sector, with the largest amount of funds purchased from Beishang, followed by electronic components, chemical industry, insurance, materials, steel and other sectors. It is worth mentioning that procyclicality is also the hottest main line of the market in the near future.
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Will bank stocks rise?
From the industry point of view, since November, the most favorite foreign investment in Beijing has been bank stocks. In terms of the market, the bank shares are also very active recently, with a gratifying rise. On November 27, it was a sharp drop of 2.35%.
On November 27, industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), known as the universal bank, surged 5.89%. On that day, foreign investors in the North net bought ICBC 202 million yuan.
Beishang capital added 17 shares in a row for seven weeks
According to the statistics of securities times u00b7 data treasure, Beishang capital has bought 142 shares for four consecutive weeks. In terms of industry, chemical industry has more stocks, with 17.
To lengthen the time, 17 shares were added by northbound capital for seven consecutive weeks. According to the change of shareholding proportion, Tang Shin Pei Jian has the largest increase in position, accounting for 6.63% of the circulating shares compared with seven weeks ago; other continuous positions have been increased by Fangda special steel, Meiya optoelectronics, guoci materials, Gree Electric appliances, etc.
Bank stocks are up 60%
Investment banking aristocrats believe that banking shares ushered in a similar big market in 2016-18, with a growth space of more than 60%.
Along with the bank stock riots, the investment banking aristocrat CICC at the end of October a strong bullish bank stocks research paper attracted attention. According to the report, after the third quarter, the asset quality of banks has entered a stage of overall improvement. The macroeconomic recovery and marginal stabilization of interest rates have given banks a stable operating environment. The logic of performance reversal, not valuation rebound will push bank stocks to usher in a big market similar to that in 2016-18, and a / h bank shares have a growth space of more than 60%.
According to the report, looking back on 2016-18, the A / h bank stock index rose 57% / 98% from its low in early 2016 to its high in early 2018, among which the valuation of a / h bank shares rose by 34% / 56% to a high of 1.06x/0.95x from a low of 0.79x/0.61x in the forward-looking year. It is expected that the current round of a / h bank valuation can be restored from the current 0.77x/0.57x before 2q2021 to 1.00x/0.90x. The forward-looking one-year Pb (lower than the peak at the beginning of 2018 is mainly due to the uncertainty caused by Sino US relations to Chinas economy, and the economic recovery and interest rate upward range may be less than that in 2016-18), and the corresponding growth space is 30% / 58%.
Under a more optimistic scenario, it is expected that the clearing of bad debt risk and the provision provision of banks in 2020 will be quite thorough, and the asset quality performance in 2021 will be better than expected. The starting point of valuation repair is lower than that in 2016-18, and the repair range is greater than that in 2016-18, that is, the valuation of a / H shares will rise by more than 38% / 67%.
Major overseas funds in the third quarter
Position of a shares increased by 13.4%
CITIC Securities recently released the global top 20 funds how to allocate China (2020q3) report, overseas major funds in the third quarter of A-share positions significantly increased.
According to CITIC Securities Research Report, as of late November, the position data of overseas fund companies in the third quarter has been basically disclosed. According to the statistical analysis of the top 20 heavy positions of 20 top fund companies that hold Chinese stocks, Q3 overseas major funds
Heavy positions in Chinese stocks rose 13.4% month on month to $551bn.
In the allocation of Chinese stocks by major overseas funds in the third quarter, the amount of heavy positions in the new economy sector (mainly Internet leaders, medical care, and information technology) increased significantly, while the amount of positions in traditional economic sectors decreased in the third quarter except for real estate and industry. According to CITIC Securities research, the increase of overseas investors positions in Chinas stocks in the third quarter is mainly due to the excellent performance of Chinese stocks. Excluding the factors of stock price rise, alibaba-sw, Weilai, shell, Xiaomi group-w and other targets in the head companies have been increased by a large margin. At the level of individual stocks, Internet leaders continue to gain favor from overseas top funds. Secondary listing and new listed high-quality companies in the third quarter provide more choices for overseas top funds. Editor: captain of the ship source: China Foundation news Author: Jiang You editor in charge: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619
According to CITIC Securities research, the increase of overseas investors positions in Chinas stocks in the third quarter is mainly due to the excellent performance of Chinese stocks. Excluding the factors of stock price rise, alibaba-sw, Weilai, shell, Xiaomi group-w and other targets in the head companies have been increased by a large margin. At the level of individual stocks, Internet leaders continue to gain favor from overseas top funds. Secondary listing and new listed high-quality companies in the third quarter provide more choices for overseas top funds.