Zhou Xiaochuan: the indicators of inflation can be more comprehensive and richer

category:Finance
 Zhou Xiaochuan: the indicators of inflation can be more comprehensive and richer


Just one day before the annual meeting, Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the Chinese financial society, published the article expanding the concept and measurement of inflation, which was widely spread on major financial websites and swept the circle of friends. At the annual meeting, Zhou Xiaochuan once again elaborated on the core points.

Under the background of novel coronavirus pneumonia, especially the experience and practice of major developed economies in recent years, low inflation has challenged central banks monetary policy operation and theoretical framework, and has shaken the theoretical basis of inflation targeting. The challenge of low inflation to the central banks monetary policy has also become a hot issue in the market and theoretical circles.

Zhou Xiaochuan believes that the traditional inflation measurement mainly faces disputes and challenges in four aspects

First, the current price index inflation contains less asset prices, which may bring some distortion, especially in the long-term comparison. For example, if asset prices become more expensive, the future return on investment of pension will be reduced, and it will cost more to enjoy the expected pension level in the future. Whether this is a kind of inflation or not is worth discussing. At present, ordinary people must consider the expenditure on pension, medical care, education and housing in the expenditure basket.

Second, what kind of income is used as the expenditure basket for calculating inflation. The current practice is to use disposable income as the expenditure basket to calculate inflation. Disposable income corresponds to regular goods and services, especially food, daily necessities, etc. the prices of these things have not increased much, or even reduced. But things outside the basket also need to be spent, whether it is pre tax spending or some system requires spending. Residents and consumers should realize that wool comes from sheep, and the price change of this part will also be borne ultimately.

The third is the impact of labor payment measurement on inflation. The time, intensity, commuting, overtime and vacation of labor also need to be measured. However, the current inflation statistics and analysis do not fully incorporate these concepts and relationships.

Fourth, comparability. In the past, the price index was a vertical ratio, which would bring some problems. For example, the development of science and technology has led to a sharp decline in the prices of electronic information, it and other related products, which may contribute greatly to the decline of the price index or negative adjustment. How to calculate the impact of scientific and technological progress on prices is worth studying. In addition, structural changes between generations can be very dramatic. The change of life expectancy will lead to the inflation of pension. In 2019, the life expectancy of Chinese is 77.3 years, but in 1949 it was only 35 years old. As life expectancy increases, the amount of investment needed to ensure the same standard of living will also change dramatically.

Zhou Xiaochuan said that as a feedback variable of monetary policy, inflation indicators can also be considered from a more comprehensive and richer perspective.

Central bank Liu Guiping: five aspects: actively and steadily promote the independent opening up of the financial industry

The annual meeting is Liu Guipings first public appearance since assuming the post of vice president of the central bank. Liu Guiping delivered a keynote speech on the theme of new development pattern of high level financial opening and service, with the key word opening.

Liu Guiping said that expanding the opening up of the financial industry will inject new vitality into Chinas financial industry, help improve the overall competitiveness of Chinas financial industry, achieve higher level, higher level and more healthy development, and provide great momentum for the construction of a new development pattern.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia has not disrupted the pace of opening up Chinas financial markets. Liu Guiping said that since this year, Fitch has become the second international rating company to enter the Chinese market after S & P. foreign financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and other foreign financial institutions have realized the control of their joint venture securities companies in China, and the joint venture established by American Express in China has obtained the bank card clearing business license. Among the worlds three major bond indexes, Chinas bonds have been included in the index of pembo and J.P. Morgan, and the FTSE Russell index has a clear timetable, and the enthusiasm of foreign investment in Chinas bonds has continued to increase.

Liu Guiping said that the peoples Bank of China will earnestly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, continue to work with relevant departments, follow the principles of internationalization, marketization and legalization, and actively and steadily promote the independent opening up of the financial industry.

One is to promote the systematic and institutionalized opening of the financial industry. We will fully implement the pre admission national treatment plus negative list management system, provide a fair and fair competition environment for foreign capital to enter the domestic market, give play to the important role of domestic and foreign financial institutions in connecting domestic and international dual circulation, and provide better financial services for various market entities participating in internal and external circulation. On the basis of maintaining and advocating the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment, we should promote the reform of rules and optimize the arrangement of institutional supply, so as to form a new financial opening system that can adapt to the high-quality economic development and the new development pattern.

The second is to promote the opening of financial markets and the interconnection of infrastructure. Taking the implementation of the development strategies of Shanghai international financial center, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area, Hainan free trade port and other national development strategies as the breakthrough point, we should meet the needs of international investors in allocating RMB assets, expand the high-level opening of the financial market in accordance with the principles of internationalization, marketization and legalization, further facilitate foreign investors to use RMB to invest in domestic bonds and stocks, and optimize the interconnection of financial markets Through the arrangement, improve the liquidity and pricing efficiency of the capital market.

Third, steadily and prudently promote the internationalization of RMB. We should adhere to the market driven and enterprise independent choice, and take the service of the real economy as the guidance, further optimize the supporting policies for the cross-border use of RMB, enhance the attractiveness of RMB in foreign trade, investment and financing, and financial market transactions, and promote trade and investment facilitation. We will improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, accelerate the construction of the foreign exchange market and opening up to the outside world. We will deepen monetary cooperation and create a new type of mutually beneficial cooperative relationship based on the free use of RMB. We will improve the RMB internationalization infrastructure and the arrangement of RMB clearing banks, and improve the efficiency of RMB clearing. We will support the development of offshore RMB market and promote the formation of a virtuous circle of RMB onshore and offshore markets.

Four, one belt, one road and one high quality development. Taking six corridors, six roads, multi countries and multi ports as the main framework, we will vigorously promote interconnection and industrial cooperation, and expand the space for financial cooperation. One belt, one road, is to improve the financing system of one belt and one road, following the international practice and debt sustainability principle.

The fifth is to improve the risk prevention and control system in line with the comprehensive opening up. We will work together to promote the opening up of the financial industry, the free use of RMB and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, build a wider financial safety net, and consolidate the institutional and institutional basis for risk prevention and control. We should establish and improve the macro Prudential + micro supervision two in one management framework for cross-border capital flows, strengthen behavioral supervision, and prevent systemic risks of cross-border capital flows. We will strengthen cross-border regulatory and disposal cooperation, and prevent cross-border regulatory arbitrage and risk transmission. High tech should be widely used to improve the efficiency of supervision and the effectiveness of risk prevention and control.

Cao Yu, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, made a keynote speech with the key words of supervision.

Cao Yu said that first of all, we should respect financial laws. We should adhere to the prevention of financial risks as the primary goal, service the real economy as the fundamental task, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers as an important mission. Secondly, it is necessary to maintain the power of supervision, adhere to the professional focus, and adhere to the supervision according to law.

In addition, at present, Chinas financial supply is unbalanced and inadequate, and the contradiction between financial demand and multi-level and diversified financial demand is still relatively prominent. Cao Yu pointed out that it is equally important to stimulate the market vitality of financial institutions and promote the high-quality development of the financial industry. There are two kinds of relationships to be dealt with, namely, the relationship between strengthening supervision and supporting innovation, and the relationship between large-scale institutions and small and medium-sized institutions.

To deal with the relationship between large-scale institutions and small and medium-sized institutions is to carry out classified supervision and differentiated supervision, and strive to create a benign financial symbiosis environment in which all kinds of financial institutions develop in dislocation, complement each others advantages, refine division of labor and orderly competition.

As for how to continuously improve the supervision methods, Cao Yu said that with institutional supervision as the core, improving the corporate governance structure as the starting point, and market access, off-site supervision and on-site inspection as the axis, we should strengthen the capital supervision, liquidity supervision and solvency supervision of financial institutions, so as to realize multi-dimensional, deep-seated and full cycle supervision of corporate institutions. At the same time, more attention should be paid to the organic combination of functional supervision and institutional supervision, so as to achieve full coverage of institutions, business and risk supervision.

Yan Qingmin of China Securities Regulatory Commission

Yan Qingmin said that since last year, the CSRC has conscientiously implemented the nine character policy of system building, non intervention and zero tolerance of the financial commission of the State Council, guided by the reform of the registration system of the scientific and technological innovation board and the gem, improved the multi-level capital market system, strengthened the construction of basic systems, paid more attention to the balance between the investment side and the financing side, and paid more attention to expanding the strength of institutional investors. On the one hand, since this year, there are more than 340 new listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, including nearly 180 on the science and technology innovation board and the reformed gem, which have effectively served the real economy and technological innovation. On the other hand, more long-term funds have been allocated to a shares. Compared with the beginning of last year, the scale of equity funds has increased by 69%, and the shareholding ratio of professional institutional investors has continued to increase, and the market structure and ecology have accumulated Change from pole to good.

Yan Qingmin pointed out that we should enhance the advanced nature of the industry and consolidate the foundation for the high quality development of listed companies. To improve the quality of Chinas listed companies as a whole, we must closely follow the guidance of national industrial policy, transform from factor driven to innovation driven, form the industrial structure of listed companies matching the double cycle pattern, and promote the high-level cycle of science and technology, capital and real economy. On the one hand, we should expand the increment. We should stick to the hard technology orientation and make the gem serve the three creation and four new. We should steadily implement the registration system in the whole market, and guide the core enterprises with high quality, innovative and leading industries to land in the capital market, and improve the advanced nature of the listed companies from the source. On the other hand, efforts should be made to optimize the stock, support listed companies to eliminate inefficient supply, clear backward production capacity, accelerate the transformation from traditional industry to emerging industry, from low-end manufacturing industry to high-tech manufacturing industry, and improve core competitiveness.

Yan Qingmin said that in the process of enterprise development, enterprises will face many uncertainties such as market risk, compliance risk and debt risk, but the most fundamental one is moral hazard. To prevent moral hazard, we need not only external constraints such as supervision, but also internal checks and balances of corporate governance. We should strengthen the effectiveness of governance and grasp the key to the high-quality development of listed companies. From the reality of our country, to promote the formation of effective checks and balances of corporate governance, it is necessary to highlight the rule supervision, classification promotion and governance practice, and work hard on the three highlights.

Yan Qingmin believes that to improve the quality of listed companies, enterprises themselves bear the main responsibility. At the same time, capital market regulation should also be combined with the changes in the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad to enhance adaptability.

First, we should improve the stock issuance registration system with information disclosure as the core, and effectively control the entrance gate. In the next comprehensive implementation of the registration system, we should firmly adhere to the information disclosure as the core, and constantly improve the adaptability of the registration system. It is necessary to further improve the system of information disclosure rules, ensure the authenticity, accuracy and integrity of information disclosure, promote the information disclosure more concise and clear, easy to understand, and improve the quality of information disclosure. It is necessary to further promote the electronic and online information disclosure, which not only facilitates investors reading, but also reduces the cost of enterprise disclosure.

Second, we should improve the market-oriented mechanism of M & A and give better play to the role of the main channel. To further improve the adaptability of Chinas M & a system under the dual cycle pattern, we should take the implementation of M & a registration system as the starting point, further improve the market mechanism, enrich the market tools, strengthen the supervision during and after the event, support the listed companies to strengthen the scale effect and coordination effect through M & A, and improve the operation efficiency.

Third, we should improve the normal delisting mechanism to achieve the goal of retiring steadily. Only when the listed companies have access to and exit from the market and the survival of the fittest, can the flowing water not be rotten and the household key will not be rusty; the only in but not out will distort the market valuation system, leading to adverse selection and bad money driving out good money. To improve the adaptability of Chinas delisting mechanism, it is necessary to expand diversified exit channels by reorganizing, restructuring and delisting. At the same time, for the black sheep of serious financial fraud and the empty shell zombies who lose the ability of sustainable operation, we should strengthen the rigidity of delisting, and never allow prolonged delay. We will implement the new securities law, promote the representative litigation system of insurance institutions through typical cases as soon as possible, and achieve the dual objectives of clearing the market and protecting investors.

Zheng Wei of safe: comprehensively relax and cancel restrictions on the scale of cross-border investment and financing and the use of funds

Zheng Wei, deputy director of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said that during the 14th five year plan period and for a period in the future, we will accelerate the construction of a foreign exchange management system compatible with the new development pattern.

First of all, we should steadily and orderly promote the opening of capital account.

First, we will comprehensively relax the access to foreign investment in the field of direct investment, and earnestly implement the management mode of national treatment plus negative list before admission. We will implement and promote the signing of bilateral and multilateral trade and investment agreements, innovate the mode of direct investment, and promote the reform of foreign exchange management mode of qualified foreign limited partners (qflp) and qualified domestic limited partners (qdlp), so as to better meet the cross-border investment needs of market entities.

The second is to promote the unified coordination of cross-border financing transactions and exchange links, formulate a policy framework for cross-border investment of private investment funds, realize the macro Prudential Management of full-scale cross-border financing and industry negative list management, and improve the level of cross-border financing facilitation.

Third, accelerate the internationalization of the financial market, promote the implementation of the securities investment opening policy in line with international practices, regularly issue QDII quota, implement the pilot project of cross border financing link, and integrate the open channels of financial market. In the medium and long term, on the premise of meeting the three evils, except for a few transactions involving national security and high-risk areas, we should realize the basic freedom of two-way flow of cross-border capital, establish and improve the management system of individual cross-border capital transactions, and meet the reasonable needs of individual foreign investment and foreign exchange.

Second, we should build a new system of higher level open foreign exchange management. One is to promote high-level trade liberalization and facilitation. We will promote the transition from pre examination to post verification in foreign exchange management, and promote the realization of efficient, safe and low-cost cross-border trade settlement. We will promote risk assessment as the guidance, improve the classified management of trade entities, and form a virtuous circle of more compliance, more autonomy and more integrity and convenience. The second is to realize high-level cross-border investment and financing liberalization and facilitation. The scale of cross-border investment and financing, the use of funds and other restrictions, the expansion of foreign debt registration and management reform pilot, the development of multinational companies domestic and foreign currency integration pool business pilot, this work has been implemented. Three, one belt, one road and one high quality development. Support one belt, one road business to facilitate trade settlement, optimize foreign exchange accounts, and help enterprises go out. The reform and opening-up strategy of Hainan, Hong Kong and Macao is a pilot free trade zone. Fifthly, we should build an open and diversified foreign exchange market with sound functions, coordinate the development of onshore and offshore markets, and enhance the international influence of domestic markets and the global participation of financial institutions.

Moreover, we should further enhance the modernization level of the national governance system and governance capacity under the open conditions. First, we should constantly improve the management framework of macro Prudential + micro supervision in the foreign exchange market. On the macro Prudential side, we should focus on preventing systemic financial risks caused by large-scale cross-border capital flows. In terms of micro supervision, we should strive to safeguard the competitive order of the foreign exchange market and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers, and crack down on illegal activities in the foreign exchange field with a zero tolerance attitude. The second is to promote the construction of digital external management and safe external management enabled by science and technology, build a cross-border capital flow monitoring system based on artificial intelligence and big data technology, improve the cross-border blockchain platforms ability to serve foreign exchange payments and cross-border financing, and better serve the development of the real economy. Third, we should improve the legal system in the field of financial opening, promote the revision of foreign exchange management regulations, improve the foreign trade law and rule system, and strengthen domestic and international cross-border regulatory cooperation. Source of this article: Zhong Qiming, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NF5619