It is estimated that the crude steel demand will reach 1.1 billion tons next year. How can the steel price go?

category:Finance
 It is estimated that the crude steel demand will reach 1.1 billion tons next year. How can the steel price go?


Iron ore has futures, capital market, and a large number of domestic demand. It is very difficult for prices to fall sharply. The current trend should be to fall and return to normal. Qu Xiuli said.

Chen Kexin, chief analyst of Lange Iron and steel Economic Research Center, pointed out that driven by various forces, Chinas steel and steel production situation is expected to show two major characteristics in 2021: first, the import scale will remain high; second, the price is expected to continue to rise. Brazil, India and other large iron ore producing countries are affected by epidemic factors, which increase the uncertainty of iron ore supply.

Chen Kexin pointed out that the price of imported iron ore will rise sharply in 2020, and the depreciation of the US dollar is also an important factor. By the end of November, the dollar had fallen by about 5%. Due to the continued existence of factors such as the US economic weakness, the expansion of fiscal deficit, the sharp rise of US debt, the extreme monetary easing of the US Federal Reserve and the basic zero interest rate, especially the significant weakening of the US dollars hedging function, it is expected that the US dollar will continue to depreciate in the new year. Affected by this, the import price level of iron ore will continue to be supported by the depreciation of the US dollar. This will be the most important factor affecting the fluctuation of iron ore price in the new year, surpassing the influence of supply and demand.

In terms of steel prices, since the fourth quarter, the market prices of major steel varieties have shown a trend of shock and rise. This year, the steel market price first suppressed and then rose, and rose in a wide range of shocks, gradually higher than the level of the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, the price rose again. The industry expects that the national steel price index will continue to run at a high level this year, and may even rise further.

Lange Iron and steel expects that the national steel consumption demand will continue to grow in 2021. Among them, the apparent consumption of crude steel is expected to exceed 1.06 billion tons, with an increase of more than 4%. It is estimated that the direct export volume of crude steel in the whole year (steel conversion) will be about 80 million tons, and the export level will change from decline to increase. Combined with the above two aspects, it is estimated that Chinas total crude steel demand will reach 1.1 billion tons in 2021, an increase of about 5% over the previous year. Chen Kexin also pointed out that another important factor for Chinas steel and steel production to continue to grow in 2021 is that a lot of new steel production capacity, especially a lot of advanced steel production capacity, has been added in recent years, which has laid a solid foundation for the substantial increase of Chinas steel and steel production. In 2021, some of these new capacity projects will be put into operation one after another, and it is estimated that there will still be tens of millions of tons. In addition, the capacity utilization rate will continue to improve, which will guarantee the new space for Chinas steel and steel production expansion in 2021. Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of the first finance and Economics_ NF4368

Lange Iron and steel expects that the national steel consumption demand will continue to grow in 2021. Among them, the apparent consumption of crude steel is expected to exceed 1.06 billion tons, with an increase of more than 4%. It is estimated that the direct export volume of crude steel in the whole year (steel conversion) will be about 80 million tons, and the export level will change from decline to increase. Combined with the above two aspects, it is estimated that Chinas total crude steel demand will reach 1.1 billion tons in 2021, an increase of about 5% over the previous year.