Fund managers look at Chinas new energy vehicle industry

category:Finance
 Fund managers look at Chinas new energy vehicle industry


Zeng duohong, taking Tesla as the intelligent benchmark of global automobile enterprises, introduced Teslas core technologies from brand and business model innovation.

Wang Yang, manager of Cathay Pacific intelligent automobile fund, is optimistic about the growth rate of new energy vehicles in China as a whole. At the same time, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is also generally increasing.

Domestic new energy passenger vehicle industry has gradually transformed from policy driven market to consumption driven market. Wang Yang predicted that all domestic passenger cars should have more than 1.6 million by 2021, the domestic market growth rate will reach 39% next year, and the overall domestic industry growth rate will reach more than 30% in 2025. When it comes to the judgment of the growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles on the subdivision track, Wang Yang believes that when the penetration rate of an industry breaks through 5% to 10%, the industry will gradually enter the acceleration period. Therefore, in 2021, the growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to be relatively optimistic, and the growth rate is expected to reach 67%.

Looking at the world, although different regions have different subsidy policies and cultural backgrounds for new energy vehicles, the consumption of new energy vehicles is still generally increasing in the world.

Wang Yang said that in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China will reach 8.7%, and that in Europe will reach 14% - 15%. At present, the main consumer countries of new energy passenger vehicles are in Germany, France, Britain and other European countries. However, it is worth noting that the United States, as the worlds largest country of passenger cars after China, has a low penetration rate of new energy. If the United States has a relatively large expected improvement in the future, there will be a relatively large upward correction to the global sales of new energy vehicles, which depends on the policy of the U.S. government after the change of office in January 2021.

Investment logic of new energy vehicles

As for the investment logic of new energy vehicles, Wang Yang believes that according to the development law of the automobile industry, the planning time of the platform is generally about five years, and the planning time of vehicle models is about three years. Therefore, the models to be launched in 2020-2022 and the competition situation can be basically foreseen. Therefore, the main line of investment in this stage can be arranged around the main growth force of global sales and its industrial chain. From the medium and long-term perspective, battery technology and form may change greatly. As a link with the largest proportion, the largest cost and the largest value chain in new energy vehicles, once this link changes, there may be significant changes in the materials from the vehicle to the battery, even including upstream resources, and even some parts companies.

At present, liquid lithium batteries are used in new energy vehicles. Wang Yang said that if viewed from the perspective of medium and long-term investment, lithium is an indispensable element, and the rise of electric power will bring about the development of relays and electronic devices, thermal management and lightweight will reduce power consumption, and the interior decoration will develop in the direction of environmental protection and science and technology. In addition, the battery itself has always represented the direction of new energy vehicle technology evolution.

Taking Tesla as the highest intelligent level of global automobile enterprises

Zeng duohong, chief analyst of electric power equipment new energy of Soochow securities, took Tesla as a benchmark to introduce the highest intelligent level of global automobile enterprises.

Zeng duohong first talked about the brand building of Tesla.

In terms of brand positioning, Tesla has set up the first brand in the field of electric vehicles. It has benchmarked technology enterprises, changed the business model of traditional automobile enterprises, created electric vehicle enterprise giants + technology giants, and reshaped the business model of the entire automobile industry. Starting from the luxury car field, the brand will gradually sink to the middle and high-end market, and the whole market space will gradually expand from 500000 to 800000.

First, from the hardware point of view, Tesla has made a very good layout or self-development in the three electricity technology. From the cylindrical battery to the battery management system, it is a very unique core competitiveness. In addition, Teslas motor and electronic control are self-developed, which controls the core technology.

Second, intelligent driving creates explosive points. From the beginning, Tesla has defined cars in a way similar to smart phones, so its intelligent driving has been constantly upgraded, adopting an open system from the architecture, and constantly improving its functions.

Although autopilot is a hot spot created by Tesla, the core hardware is the FSD chip developed by Tesla, and its computing power is higher than that of companies specializing in chips. At least two years later, Tesla has been ahead of other OTA in terms of data collection and data collection.

In addition, the transformation of business model and the acceleration of capacity construction. Zeng duohong introduced that Tesla takes the lead in all aspects of electrification, intelligence and business model, leading the whole industry in the trend of electrification. In addition, musk said that 10-12 super factories will be built in the world, and the new super factories can guarantee the delivery capacity.

Zeng duohong predicted that Teslas sales volume in the field of electric vehicles has always been the leader. In the future, the market share of Tesla should exceed that of traditional automobile enterprises by more than 20% or even 30%. In addition, Teslas low-end, middle end and high-end models have relatively complete coverage, so the future is worth looking forward to. JIC lecture hall is a lecture brand created by China Construction Investment Group, which takes the cultural space of CCDI book office as the front position and gathers the wisdom and strength of academic circles and industry. In 2020, JIC lecture hall will launch a series of science and technology investment, focusing on 5g, chip, artificial intelligence, financial technology, information security, intelligent automobile and other fields. Through eight special lectures, we will explain to the audience how the fourth wave of scientific and technological revolution can deliver new development momentum to China, and study and judge the frontier trend and investment of industry development and technological progress Direction. Source: surging news editor: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619

Zeng duohong predicted that Teslas sales volume in the field of electric vehicles has always been the leader. In the future, the market share of Tesla should exceed that of traditional automobile enterprises by more than 20% or even 30%. In addition, Teslas low-end, middle end and high-end models have relatively complete coverage, so the future is worth looking forward to.

JIC lecture hall is a lecture brand created by China Construction Investment Group, which takes the cultural space of CCDI book office as the front position and gathers the wisdom and strength of academic circles and industry. In 2020, JIC lecture hall will launch a series of science and technology investment, focusing on 5g, chip, artificial intelligence, financial technology, information security, intelligent automobile and other fields. Through eight special lectures, we will explain to the audience how the fourth wave of scientific and technological revolution can deliver new development momentum to China, and study and judge the frontier trend and investment of industry development and technological progress Direction.