The compound growth rate of new energy vehicle industry in the future can be as high as 30%
Domestic new energy passenger vehicle industry has gradually transformed from policy driven market to consumption driven market. Wang Yang predicted that all domestic passenger cars should have more than 1.6 million by 2021, the domestic market growth rate will reach 39% next year, and the overall domestic industry growth rate will reach more than 30% in 2025. When it comes to the judgment of the growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles on the subdivision track, Wang Yang believes that when the penetration rate of an industry breaks through 5% to 10%, the industry will gradually enter the acceleration period. Therefore, in 2021, the growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to be relatively optimistic, and the growth rate is expected to reach 67%.
Looking at the world, although different regions have different subsidy policies and cultural backgrounds for new energy vehicles, the consumption of new energy vehicles is still generally increasing in the world.
Wang Yang said that in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China will reach 8.7%, and that in Europe will reach 14% - 15%. At present, the main consumer countries of new energy passenger vehicles are in Germany, France, Britain and other European countries. However, it is worth noting that the United States, as the worlds largest country of passenger cars after China, has a low penetration rate of new energy. If the United States has a relatively large expected improvement in the future, there will be a relatively large upward correction to the global sales of new energy vehicles, which depends on the policy of the U.S. government after the change of office in January 2021.
We think the compound growth rate of this industry can reach 30% in the future. Wang Yang said, now that the global economy is changing from an incremental economy to a stock economy, it is very rare to have such a fast-growing industry. I think this industry may be one of the fastest growing segments in the future large national economic system.
Investment logic of new energy vehicles
According to Wang Yang, a common industry investment logic is: first, find an industry with a higher growth rate than the national economy to obtain higher excess returns than the national economy; second, to find the subdivision areas with the highest growth rate; third, to invest in the sectors with the largest volume, the highest growth rate and the largest value.
Putting this logic into the field of new energy vehicles, Wang Yang said, no matter in 2019 or 2025, the value of new energy A-class vehicles is the highest in the battery sector. Therefore, the importance of battery technology to the whole new energy vehicle industry is self-evident.
As for the investment logic of new energy vehicles, Wang Yang believes that according to the development law of the automobile industry, the planning time of the platform is generally about five years, and the planning time of vehicle models is about three years. Therefore, the models to be launched in 2020-2022 and the competition situation can be basically foreseen. Therefore, the main line of investment in this stage can be arranged around the main growth force of global sales and its industrial chain. From the medium and long-term perspective, battery technology and form may change greatly. As a link with the largest proportion, the largest cost and the largest value chain in new energy vehicles, once this link changes, there may be significant changes in the materials from the vehicle to the battery, even including upstream resources, and even some parts companies.
At present, liquid lithium batteries are used in new energy vehicles. Wang Yang said that if viewed from the perspective of medium and long-term investment, lithium is an indispensable element, and the rise of electric power will bring about the development of relays and electronic devices, thermal management and lightweight will reduce power consumption, and the interior decoration will develop in the direction of environmental protection and science and technology. In addition, the battery itself has always represented the direction of new energy vehicle technology evolution.
Zeng duohong, chief analyst of electric power equipment new energy of Soochow securities, took Tesla as a benchmark to introduce the highest intelligent level of global automobile enterprises.
Zeng duohong first talked about the brand building of Tesla.
In addition to subversive brand building, Teslas core technology is also very advanced.
First, from the hardware point of view, Tesla has made a very good layout or self-development in the three electricity technology. From the cylindrical battery to the battery management system, it is a very unique core competitiveness. In addition, Teslas motor and electronic control are self-developed, which controls the core technology.
Second, intelligent driving creates explosive points. From the beginning, Tesla has defined cars in a way similar to smart phones, so its intelligent driving has been constantly upgraded, adopting an open system from the architecture, and constantly improving its functions.
Although autopilot is a hot spot created by Tesla, the core hardware is the FSD chip developed by Tesla, and its computing power is higher than that of companies specializing in chips. At the same time, it continuously collects data and improves its own system, so that it can be at least 5 years ahead of the traditional market in the field of automatic driving, and Teslas OTA (remote wireless upgrade technology) is at least two generations ahead of other peers.
Zeng duohong predicted that Teslas sales volume in the field of electric vehicles has always been the leader. In the future, the market share of Tesla should exceed that of traditional automobile enterprises by more than 20% or even 30%. In addition, Teslas low-end, middle end and high-end models have relatively complete coverage, so the future is worth looking forward to.
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