At the beginning of July this year, the operating profit of Dongmei company has shrunk significantly when the first bean futures rose to a new high of 4933 yuan / ton. At that time, Chen Yonghua told reporters that the company chose to self digest the high cost of raw materials to meet the next price reduction range of soybean supply and demand balance, and expected that with the listing of new beans in the second half of the year, soybean prices would fall.
But by the end of November, what Chen did not expect was that soybean prices had risen to a higher level. On November 27, Chen Yonghua told reporters that during this years soybean harvest season, many farmers had broken the contract, and farmers were more willing to sell their soybeans at the market price. In addition, the upstream raw material suppliers have increased frequently recently. Although there is no shortage of goods in the production area, the price is too high.
After the listing of new beans, why does soybean price rise instead of falling? Chen Yonghua believes that in addition to the supply side of high quality and good price and farmers are reluctant to sell, there is a suspicion that traders are hoarding and speculating.
According to the survey data of soybean world network, at present, the surplus grain of Heilongjiang farmers is about 40%, that of intermediate channel is about 40%, and that of soybean flowing to terminal market is about 20%. In addition, many insiders in the industry said in an interview that the current high price is more market behavior and has little to do with fundamentals. Under the stimulation of various factors, all kinds of main bodies began to hoard grain for sale, leading to the rise of domestic soybean prices.
Set a new record
On November 27, the highest price of soybean No.1 futures rose to 5574 yuan / ton, a record high in the 18 years since its listing in 2002. The current main 2101 contract has increased by 68% this year. According to the statistics of soybean world wide network, the price of soybean in production areas has risen from 2.1 yuan / jin at the beginning of the year to 2.5-2.6 yuan / Jin now.
Soybean raw material price rise, for some downstream enterprises, can only passively bear.
Last week, Chen Yonghua received a call from an upstream supplier who told him that the market price of soybeans had risen by 5 cents per kilogram, hoping to add 2 cents per kilogram to the original order. This is an order of 500 tons. Chen Yonghua understands that now the soybean market is so hot, the supplier only increases the price by 2 cents, which has given great human consideration.
Since the beginning of this year, Chen Yonghua has been familiar with the phenomenon of rising prices of raw materials. However, he did not expect that the price of new beans will rise even more after the listing. He told reporters that at the end of October, when the new beans were harvested, the price of soybeans was already at a high level, and the farmers cooperating with the company had broken the contract one after another, so the company had to go to the fields to buy goods. After that, the price game with suppliers became a part of his work.
Since the new beans were listed on the market, the farmers in Northeast China are reluctant to sell, and the price of soybean farmers is increasing. In Chen Yonghuas view, affected by rain and typhoon weather this year, soybean production in low-lying land decreased, giving the subject matter of market speculation. Dealers hoard speculation, which led to the price rise so high.
Tang Qijun, President of Heilongjiang soybean association and deputy general manager of Nanhua futures, pointed out four reasons for the logic behind soybeans recent record. First, for the sellers market, that is, farmers generally are reluctant to sell, and sell down rather than increase; second, except for Heihe and Suihua, some areas reported that soybean protein was good this year, and other regions all reflected that the output and protein were lower than market expectations. Even if the high soybean price offsets the increased demand, the overall pattern of tight balance between supply and demand will be maintained; third, this years new season soybean in southern China has been affected Flood invasion reduced production, and the phenomenon of high quality and good price was obvious. Most soybean products enterprises have low inventory and strong demand for replenishment. At the same time, the demand for protein products is still strong. This years strange phenomenon is that the grain entity enterprises dare not store grain on a large scale. Instead, peripheral funds have entered the market for purchase. Tang Qijun talked about the fourth factor: affected by the epidemic this year, countries around the world have implemented relatively loose monetary policies, resulting in excess liquidity. Under the guidance of macro factors such as the epidemic situation and the food crisis, excessive currencies have poured into the food circle, which has played an important role in boosting prices.
According to the survey data of soybean world network, at present, the surplus grain of Heilongjiang farmers is about 40%, that of intermediate channel is about 40%, and that of soybean flowing to terminal market is about 20%.
According to the data of the national grain and oil information center, Chinas total soybean production in 2020 / 21 is 19.1 million tons, an increase of 5.52% compared with last years 18.1 million tons; among them, Heilongjiangs output is 8.58 million tons, an increase of 9.86% compared with last years 7.81 million tons, and this years soybean production is the highest in recent years. This years rise in soybean prices is inseparable from the increase in grain hoarding. Tang Qijun believes that at present, about 20% of soybeans flow to the terminal market, and most of them are in farmers and intermediate links.
Admission of peripheral funds
The reporter of the Economic Observer learned that in addition to the purchase of soybean by trading enterprises, the newly admitted peripheral funds are also an important force.
The head of a soybean trading enterprise in Baoqing County said that farmers were reluctant to sell this year and some traders were hoarding goods, which made it difficult to purchase soybeans. This year, the companys trade volume was less than 1 / 3 of last years, only about 10000 tons. At present, the companys inventory is less than half of the storage capacity.
This person pointed out that although farmers are reluctant to sell this year, at this stage, farmers have less than 30% of their surplus grain, and many peripheral funds have begun to enter the market and store a lot of goods. It is said that Suihua has a large amount of money to store 1 billion soybeans. At present, the relatively reasonable inventory ratio in the region is 20% for farmers, 20% for traders, 30% for funds and 30% for trade.
The head of a soybean trading enterprise in Fujin city said that the companys soybeans are mainly supplied to southern customers, including Yuba factory, tofu processing plant and protein factory. This years soybean price is too high, but the downstream receiving goods is not active enough. The person said that this year, many non professionals with funds also participated in soybean and corn hoarding, and the market was disrupted. As for the follow-up operation of the enterprise, the person said, in general, if there is profit, trade will be done. If the price drops continuously, the risk of shipment will be avoided.
However, Liu Chunsheng believes that the possibility of traders hoarding grain speculation is relatively small. Because traders also need funds in their hands, and they cant understand the market situation. Many of them are customers who ask him to collect money.
Zhang Jinjie, a soybean analyst with Zhuo Chuang information, told the economic observer that this years soybean market traders are in a passive position, that is, they have done inventory construction in the process of rising soybean prices. The price of building the warehouse has been very high, and it is not an active choice.
However, Bai Jie, senior researcher of COFCO oil futures, also told the economic observer that under the impact of the epidemic, the market monetary environment was relatively loose, the market liquidity and traders money were abundant. Affected by rumors of the global food crisis, funds began to enter and store grain.
He believes that this years domestic soybean is a high-yield year, with an increase of about 2 million tons compared with last year, and there is no gap between production and demand. This years supply and demand of domestic soybean has improved compared with last year. The current high price is more market behavior, and has little to do with fundamentals. However, under the stimulation of various factors, all kinds of subjects began to hoard grain for sale, resulting in the price rise of domestic soybean.
High price shock wave
According to more than ten years of experience, Chen Yonghua predicted in early July that soybean prices would fall after new beans were listed in October. Even if it doesnt fall back to the normal level, we can accept an increase of four or five hundred yuan. But now it has broken through the price of one or two thousand yuan (compared with the beginning of the year), and we cant bear it at all.
The shock wave of raw material price rising is transmitting to the financial statements of enterprises. According to Chen Yonghuas calculation, the companys product sales volume is expected to decline by 15% this year, and the annual profit will be reduced by 50% compared with that of last year. Under normal circumstances, the companys profit is less than 10%. The overall fund is in a tight situation.
We all feel terrible about this trend. Chen Yonghua said frankly that in fact, the company had plans to expand production this year, but in this state of affairs, the company is facing huge financial pressure and the plan can only be shelved.
Dongmei company still has a small profit, but for many deep processing enterprises with soybean as raw material, the high price of soybean is undoubtedly a fatal blow. The reporter learned that Heilongjiang many small non transgenic soybean oil crushing plants have been closed this year.
The person in charge of a pressing plant in Nenjiang County told the reporter that the company stopped production in April this year. The raw materials were not enough, and the price of more than 5000 tons on the market was too high, which was equivalent to dry for nothing. Originally planned to wait for the new beans to come down at the end of the year and then produce again, but I didnt expect the price to be higher. The other person will not be responsible for the start-up of the oil plant
It seems that there is no meaning of futures trading. Bai Jie believes that in the high-yield year of domestic soybeans, the price of domestic soybeans will rise due to the hoarding of grain by various entities. The mentality of grain hoarders in the later stage will determine the future price trend. We should focus on the rhythm of grain sales by farmers and traders. If the grain hoarders are reluctant to sell, it may lead to a drop in soybean prices this round.
For bean 1 futures traders, Tang Qijun also said that the linkage between spot and futures is very strong, we should focus on the spot price in the production and marketing areas and the mentality of grain hoarders. At present, most of soybeans are sold in farmers and intermediate links. If they are sold intensively in the later stage, the price will collapse.
Source: Economic Observer: Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge_ NF