Straight dive! Whats wrong with these safe haven assets? The six major banks formed a group for encirclement and suppression

 Straight dive! Whats wrong with these safe haven assets? The six major banks formed a group for encirclement and suppression

Although the impact is largely psychological, it is likely to trigger short-term panic selling by domestic investors. An institutional source told the Chinese correspondent of the securities company. Just before that, six banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BOCOM and CMB, gave risk tips on precious metals in their accounts and suspended the opening of new customers with similar accounts. And the news is now fermenting.

Precious metal night trading period suddenly plummeted

At 21:00 p.m. Beijing time on the 27th, the global precious metal market suddenly and rapidly dived after the domestic commodity night trading session began. The international gold price fell below 1800 US dollars / oz, down nearly 2%; silver fell even more, once more than 4%. The domestic market is basically synchronized with that of overseas markets, and the related varieties of Shanghai Gold Exchange and Futures Exchange have declined to varying degrees.

After about 22:00, the decline of precious metal market gradually narrowed, but the decline was not significantly reversed until the next days closing.

Why did the highly respected precious metal market suddenly plummet? Industry insiders believe that it may be related to the latest policy of major domestic banks to suspend new accounts for precious metals.

Other institutions also told reporters that although it does not involve the account of precious metal stock business, but the suspension of new account opening will have a greater psychological impact on existing investors, and the market is prone to misread the relevant policies. As most investors hold long positions in precious metals, short-term concentrated closing positions will cause greater selling pressure in the market, which will lead to panic drop.

Six banks suspend account opening for precious metals

On November 27, six banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BOCOM and CMB, made risk warnings on precious metals in their accounts and suspended the opening of new customers of similar accounts.

Taking China behavior as an example, the bank issued a notice saying: the bank will suspend the signing service of acting as an agent for individual Shanghai gold exchange business and two-way account precious metal products from November 28, 2020, and the normal trading of signed customers will not be affected. It is suggested that you should pay attention to the relevant risks brought by market changes in a timely manner, reasonably control positions and invest rationally.

It is worth noting that many banks suspended the opening of new customers accounts and controlled incremental customers, and did not propose when they would restart. Previously, banks only gave more risk tips on market fluctuations. However, many banks announce the same operation at almost the same time, and unified action is rare. After the crude oil treasure incident, a number of banks, including state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, announced the adjustment of relevant account transactions within a few days. Since then, there has been no unified action of so many banks.

Bull market belief still exists?

Despite the recent continuous adjustment of the precious metal market, the industry still seems optimistic about the trend of precious metals, especially gold.

After the event is stable, the market will return to fundamental trading. The medium and long-term gold trend is not pessimistic, and the rising cycle has not ended. Mainly in the post epidemic era, the recovery of the US economy still needs fiscal stimulus policy, while the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will remain loose to maintain a low interest rate environment. 2021 is expected to adjust the structure of asset purchase and increase the purchase of long-term bonds. The logic of low interest rate and weak dollar supporting golds rise is still in place, and gold will still break through the previous high in 2021. Xu Ying said.

In its report released in mid November, Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish outlook on gold and silver target prices, with gold bullish at $2300 / oz and silver at $30 / oz. Goldman Sachs believes that there is still room for inflation to rise in the near future, and the increase in solar energy devices is expected to support silver demand.

Paul Robinson, general manager of CRU, recently said that there will be enough volatility and uncertainty in the whole market to boost gold prices next year, and it is expected to return to above $2000 / oz in the next three to six months. Robinson pointed out that the gold market fundamentals are very strong and there is strong support in the first half of next year. Gold will remain the best performing commodity in the first half of next year, followed by copper, other precious metals and nickel and zinc.

Northeast Securities believes that in the short term, precious metals will be volatile, but in the long run, the configuration value is still very high. First of all, although the real interest rate enters the bottleneck period in the short term, it is still enough to support the current gold price; secondly, through the relationship between the gold price and the real interest rate, we can see that the correlation between the two is not linear, but convex, that is, when the real interest rate level is very low, the marginal decrease can bring about a greater increase in gold price; thirdly, there is still room for the current inflation expectation to rise Fourth, a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States will still be introduced at a rough rate. In addition, the epidemic situation in overseas countries rebounded twice in succession, and the effectiveness of Russian vaccine needs to be observed, which may also be a risk factor for gold price rise. Silver is also worthy of attention. In any precious metal bull market in history, the price of gold and silver will fall below 50. In the long run, silver still has greater investment value, and the rising space is higher than gold.

However, novel coronavirus pneumonia is also likely to be gradually released from the global economy next year. The risk of rising market risk preference and interest rate will bring some pressure to the precious metal market.

This article is from Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NBJ9931