Delaying retirement scheme has become mature: will 2021 be the best time window for implementation?

category:Finance
 Delaying retirement scheme has become mature: will 2021 be the best time window for implementation?


Delayed retirement plan for dystocia

In fact, as early as July 2016, in the 13th five year plan issued by the Ministry of human resources and social security, it has proposed to formulate and introduce a gradual plan to delay the retirement age. According to the timetable determined at that time, the specific plan for delaying retirement will be officially announced to the society in 2017, and is expected to be formally implemented in 2021.

Although the final plan did not come as scheduled during the 13th Five Year Plan period, according to first finance and economics, the relevant departments did formulate a set of relatively well-established plan, that is, to raise the age of one year every three years. The basic principle of the scheme is: take a small step slowly, gradually extend the retirement age, and establish a buffer mechanism before extending the retirement age, so as to minimize the impact of retirement policy adjustment.

Yang Yansui, director of the employment and social security research center of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with first finance and economics that although there is a consensus in the academic community and there are plans for government departments, it is very difficult to introduce the policy of delaying retirement. The main reason is that relevant departments mistakenly believe that delaying retirement will have a negative impact on employment, and at the same time, the word of government providing for the aged left over from the family planning era in the past is very difficult No. 1 has not been corrected in time, and the aging education is not carried out in time, so it is difficult to reach a consensus of the people.

In fact, with the increase of life expectancy, delaying retirement has become a necessary policy option for individuals to comply with the trend of life expectancy extension and to cope with the impact of longevity risk.

In 2019, Chinas aging population aged 65 and above will reach 176 million, accounting for 23.0% of the worlds population of the same age group, which is much higher than the worlds share of Chinas total population (18.2%).

Cai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently wrote that it is difficult to push forward the gradual postponement of retirement policy as scheduled, and even many workers actually quit the employment market before they reach the retirement age. This has exacerbated the trend of labor shortage, increased the pressure on pension payment, and reduced the income level of the elderly. He listed the timetable and roadmap of delaying the legal retirement age as one of the urgent tasks for coping with the population aging strategy during the 14th five year plan period, and its importance was ranked after optimizing the family planning system and realizing family independent childbirth.

Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Wuhan University of science and technology, told first finance and economics that delaying the statutory retirement age will have two effects: one is to postpone the payment of pension, which can relieve the pressure on pension; the other is that extending work will increase the income and accumulation of social security fund. Through such one in one out, delaying retirement can greatly improve the endowment insurance fund The balance of payments.

More consensus on gradual and flexible retirement

In the past five years, the academic community has also put forward some other plans. Generally speaking, the gradual and flexible retirement has won more consensus.

In June this year, China Development Research Foundation released China Development Report 2020: development trend and policy of Chinas population aging (hereinafter referred to as China Development Report 2020), which pointed out that in view of the low labor participation rate of middle-aged and elderly groups, the key work to be done in the near future is to implement the policy of delaying retirement. It can be divided into two steps: the first step is to gradually raise the retirement age of female employees to 55 years old and the retirement age of female civil servants to 60 years old from 2020 to 2025; the second step is to gradually implement the flexible retirement age system from 2025, and gradually increase the age of fully receiving pension to 65 years old in 5-10 years.

In Yang Yansuis opinion, as important as the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age is to establish a mechanism of early reduction and late increase, that is, the retirement age is separated from the age of receiving pension, and the retirement time is determined by the workers themselves. The state only needs to set a minimum age for receiving pension. Early retirement is discounted and late retirement is increased according to the proportion, so that the people can make their own decisions To choose.

This is similar to the flexible retirement system implemented in many developed countries. Dong Dengxin said that in Chinas compulsory retirement system, when workers reach the legal retirement age, they must be forced to retire, and employers have the right to terminate their work. However, in countries where flexible retirement is implemented, workers reach the legal retirement age. If workers are healthy and willing to continue working, employers have no right to refuse. At the same time, for the late retirees, the state will also give incentives on the pension.

Zhang Yinghua, executive research fellow of the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also told ifnancial that the biggest difficulty in implementing delayed retirement is insufficient incentive. If people think that delaying retirement is obviously a loss, the reform will certainly not be carried out. Therefore, it is necessary to give enough incentives to those who are willing to postpone their retirement, and maintain certain flexibility for those who are not willing to delay retirement, so as to reduce the resistance to reform.

China Development Report 2020 also suggests the establishment of flexible retirement incentive mechanism. We should link the retirement age with the level of pension, encourage young people to consciously extend their employment years, and reduce their early withdrawal from the labor market. For example, according to German regulations, the pension will be reduced by 3.6% for each year ahead of schedule, and increased by 6% for each year of delay.

Cai Fang said that we should start from designing pension payment methods and strengthening on-the-job training, improve the actual labor participation rate of the elderly, and issue a timetable roadmap for delaying the statutory retirement age. On the premise of improving the actual labor participation rate from these two aspects, the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age will be more humanized, and the incentive compatibility between policy intention and individual will be maximized.

The scheme of delaying retirement has become mature