In the autumn of 2020, ant group first pushed forward the IPO process at an astonishing speed and got the token of listing on the science and technology innovation board, with an estimated value of 2.1 trillion yuan. Then, on the eve of the listing on November 5, the tuyere suddenly changed and the IPO stopped abruptly.
The sharp contrast between the quick and the one night stop makes the unicorn company stand on the front line.
For those who are in a hurry (to promote the listing of ant group), some people may put leverage into it. If they dont go public, they cant realize it, and they have to pay the interest. An industry observer also told Caijing that these people are really ants, but they are in hot pot.
The original shareholders of ant group can be regarded as luxurious, which can be divided into three categories: the first is Ali family and their relatives and friends ; the second is domestic investment institutions with strong strength; the third is some top overseas investment institutions, such as Singapore Investment Company, Malaysia Treasury holdings, Temasek, etc Zhang Xiaorong said: the investment of these institutions often amounts to hundreds of millions.
In addition, ant groups shareholder background is more complex, and the final penetration problem behind its huge shareholder group is not clear. The financial professionals said.
In this regard, Liu Feng, chief economist of galaxy securities, once pointed out that the basic condition for the effective operation of financial markets requires information symmetry, but investors and financiers naturally have asymmetric information. Therefore, we need to improve laws and regulations to make information transparent.
In an interview with the finance and economics reporter, Liu Feng said: ant group is a good company with innovative ability. The loan mode provided by Alipay has benefited more people. But at the same time, its online loan business risk also needs to be prevented. At present, the new regulation of online loan issued by the regulatory layer is just to prevent the outbreak of large financial risks in the online loan industry.
When the realization of the original shareholders wealth is hindered, a large number of investors who participate in the subscription of ant groups strategic placement fund are struggling to redeem the funds within the validity period. Some investors indicated that they would resolutely redeem the funds, while others realized that the profit of the strategic placement fund depended on how 90% of the fund was invested, rather than 10% of the ant group.
After the IPO was stopped, the probability of ant group to restart IPO in the short term became smaller, and the exit of original shareholders was delayed. Many financial people interviewed by Caijing said that in the short term, it is difficult to restart the IPO of ant group. At present, it is difficult to judge how long it will take for ant group to restart its IPO.
A senior person in the securities industry told Caijing that if you are a value investor, you dont have to worry about when ant group will be listed.
Prelude to the banquet of 2.1 trillion Wealth: luxurious shareholder lineup
In March 2012, Peng Lei was appointed CEO of Alibaba micro financial services. In October 2014, the company was named ant financial services group. At that time, the little ant of Ali Group officially appeared on the stage.
Six years later, the little ant grew into an elephant, an ant group valued at $200 billion.
Since then, its listing process has been rapidly promoted. On August 25, the Shanghai stock exchange accepted its IPO application, and on September 18, ant group launched its IPO and successfully passed the meeting. From submitting IPO application to successfully passing the meeting, ant group only took 25 days, and the speed of its sprint to the IPO of Kechuang board set a record.
On the evening of October 26, 2020, ant group announced the pricing, and the issuing price of a shares was determined to be 68.8 yuan per share, and that of Hong Kong was determined to be HK $80.00 per share, which means that its total market value is as high as 2.1 trillion yuan.
Taking the A-share market as an example, when ant group announced its pricing, the listed company with the highest market value in the A-share market was Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH), with a total market value of 2.06 trillion yuan. This means that if it can be listed successfully, ant group is expected to surpass Guizhou Maotai and become the first share in the market value of a shares.
Its rapid growth can be seen from the changes in its valuation over the past few years. In 2015, ant group had a round of financing, and its post investment valuation was about 260 billion yuan. Just five years later, its valuation has almost jumped 8 times to 2.1 trillion yuan.
Different from many science and technology enterprises that continue to burn money and are still losing money when they go public, ant group has achieved continuous profits and the annual profit scale reaches 10 billion yuan. According to the prospectus disclosed by ant group, from 2017 to 2019, ant group realized the net profit of 6.951 billion yuan, 667 million yuan and 16.957 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit growth rates in 2018 and 2019 were - 90.40% and 2442.06% respectively.
In the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the first three quarters of 2020 were even more alarming: the ant group realized a business income of 118 billion 191 million yuan in January and September, up 42.56% from the same period last year, mainly from the growth of digital financial technology platform revenue, and realized gross profit of 69 billion 549 million yuan, an increase of 74.28%; the gross gross profit margin increased from 48.13% in the same period last year to 58.84%.
As for the novel coronavirus pneumonias rush to reallocate this year, Zhang Xiaorong believes that it may come from three aspects: first, the restriction of the US dollar outflow, which makes some foreign shareholders of the ant group hope to cash in as soon as possible; two is affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some shareholders are pessimistic about the future economic development expectation, hoping to bag the security before the cold winter comes, and three is to go out. He is worried about Sino US relations. Previously, foreign media reported that the US government under trump had considered listing ant group in the trade blacklist. If this measure is implemented, it will affect the valuation of ant group when it is listed.
When it comes to the original shareholders of ant group before listing, its lineup can be described as luxurious, including national social security fund, China Post Group and other national teams, insurance funds such as China Life Insurance and Xinhua life insurance, as well as business tycoons such as Liu Yonghao, Shi Yuzhu and Wang Zhongjun, and many shareholders have not penetrated into the underlying private equity funds.
Ant groups shareholders, there may be more unknown big man. For example, some private equity funds, whose equity penetration is relatively difficult, said the financial professionals to Caijing
According to the prospectus disclosed by ant group, its shares are relatively concentrated, and the top ten shareholders hold 93.36% of the shares in total.
Among them, Hangzhou Alibaba network technology company holds 32.64%, which is the largest shareholder. Ali is a senior management and internal employee shareholding platform. Hangzhou Junhan equity investment enterprise (hereinafter referred to as Hangzhou Junhan) and Hangzhou junao equity investment enterprise (hereinafter referred to as Hangzhou junao) hold 29.8% and 20.65% respectively, which are the second and third largest shareholders of the company. Thus, Alibaba and its members hold about 83% of the shares of ant group. In addition, among the top ten shareholders, there are national social security fund, China Life Insurance, Zhifu (Shanghai) investment center, etc.
According to the reporter of Finance and economics, the current equity structure of Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou junao is a transitional structure, which will eventually transform into 40% of all employees including management and 60% of shares of strategic investors including Ali.
At present, Ma Yun is the actual controller of ant group. In reply to the Shanghai Stock Exchanges inquiry letter, ant group disclosed that Ma Yun indirectly controlled 50.5% of the companys shares through Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou junao, which are the actual controllers of the company. According to the relevant articles of association and agreement, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang are the persons acting in concert of Ma Yun on matters related to the resolutions of the shareholders meeting of Hangzhou yunplatinum.
Previously, the industry expected that the listing of ant group will bring a new round of wealth making movement, and a large number of tens of millions and even Billionaires will be born. Ma Yun, ant group executives and the companys shareholding staff will benefit from it.
In addition to the companys executives and employees, after several rounds of financing, ant group has a large number of investors. In addition to the social security fund and China Life Insurance mentioned above, it also includes CIC, CICC Jiazi, CDB finance and CCB trust. In the financing of 2018, ant group also attracted a large number of overseas funds, such as Singapore government investment company, Malaysia Treasury holdings, Canada Pension Fund Investment Company, Temasek, pan Atlantic capital group, Carlyle investment group, etc.
Compared with these early investors who entered the ant groups shareholder group, a large number of institutions and investors scrambled to buy its new shares when ant group officially opened its application. In the A-share market alone, the scale of its new share subscription fund is as high as 19 trillion yuan, the oversubscription ratio is more than 800 times, and the final winning bid rate is only 0.1267%.
However, on November 5, the scheduled listing day, ant shareholders failed to wait for the bell to ring. On the evening of November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that ant groups listing on the science and technology innovation board was suspended. Subsequently, ant group announced on the Hong Kong stock exchange that the listing of H shares was suspended. This wealth feast was drawn to a halt.
Strategic placement fund: from hot sale to class B exit
Ant group IPO derived from another drama, is the five innovative future strategic placement funds. One yuan can be ant shareholder, star manager management Rare themes, star fund managers and all-round publicity have jointly achieved this grand event of fund circle and become a rare opportunity for public funds to break the circle.
From the application, approval to issuance, the speed of the five funds can be described as lightning: on September 10, Huaxia, e-fund, Penghua, huitianfu and China Europe fund companies jointly reported the theme fund of innovative future, which attracted market attention. In just over a week, the five funds were officially approved.
In the next few days, the fund advertisements were broadcast in the subway, bus station and building elevator in major cities. You can see advertisements everywhere. It feels like the double 11 has been ahead of schedule. One investor recalled.
In the early morning of September 25, five funds were put on sale. A group of sales data with strong e-commerce color is: it will sell 1 billion yuan in 2 minutes. Only $10.2 billion was sold E-fund innovation, which ranked first in the future, will take the lead in reaching the sales quota of RMB 12 billion, and will close the issue ahead of schedule, sold out in one day.
Its national day, and its going to cover the entire holiday season. The five ant strategic placement fund opened 118 live broadcasting projects in Alipay for the new development fund roadshow. It accumulated over 70 million people, and took turns to answer questions for investors during the holidays. The national day of Huaxia Fund was broadcast continuously for 8 days, with 4 hours of live broadcast every day, while huitianfu fund broadcast for 11 hours continuously on September 25. The fund manager also visited the live broadcasting room in person, setting a record for the longest live broadcast of financial management in a single session.
On the evening of October 8, all five innovation future funds were raised. According to relevant statistics, more than 10 million people have subscribed to the five funds, equivalent to 8 people buying every second. According to the total scale of 60 billion yuan, the funds per capita investment is only 6000 yuan, becoming the most inclusive new fund in history.
On November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to suspend the listing of ant group. As soon as the news comes out, more and more fund investors ask for refund.
Most fund investors are looking for ants. If you dont buy ant stock, the product will lose its core value. If the product has deteriorated, it should be returned. Some investors have said so.
In fact, the core value understood by some investors is not the real core value of the fund. In terms of the proportion of the investment portfolio, only 10% of the participants participate in the ant battle, and where the remaining 90% is invested is the key factor that really determines the performance of the fund. And, this batch of fund is the partial stock mixed fund of stock investment not less than 60%. Therefore, they are essentially a high-risk product under the banner of ant strategic distribution.
As high as investors expectations are, so are losses. According to the Caijing reporters sample survey of relevant fund investors (the sample number is more than 100), more than 70% of the funders think that the money should be refunded, and about 20% of the funders think that at least the purchase and redemption should be opened.
On the evening of November 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) made a statement on this issue. Subsequently, e-fund, Penghua, China Central Europe, huitianfu and Huaxia announced the optimization plan: to apply for listing on the stock exchange to facilitate investors to sell on the spot.
It is difficult for investors to be satisfied with the plan of listing and transferring. Market participants believe that the business of custody transfer is strange and complex, which is too difficult for new fund investors to enter the market, and there is a high probability of discount after listing. Some public funders also said that at present, it can only be considered as a compromise scheme, and it is uncertain whether the redemption will be opened in the future.
At this point, investors withdrawal demands have been resolved, and the dispute about Innovation future fund has come to an end.
Looking from the rearview mirror, the Innovation future fund has not only lost the aura of participating in ant strategic placement, but also experienced a frenzy of leverage and pain of deleveraging.
After dropping expectations of participating in the ant battle, investors began to re-examine the five funds. Whether to go or not to stay, opinions began to diverge. Finance and economics reporter learned that some investors will resolutely redeem, believe the fund managers words, it is better to buy open-end funds directly, there is no need to close for a year and a half.. Others want to arbitrage, buy it back after redemption, and you can earn the difference (because the secondary market is probably at a discount). More people are beginning to realize that making money or not depends on 90%, not the 10% of the propaganda.
At present, the five funds have started to build positions. As there is a one month exit option period from November 23 to December 22, positions should be controlled to cope with the pressure of redemption. An analysis of fund practitioners.
Behind the suspension of listing: wealth of all parties temporarily failed
After the suspension of listing, the focus of the market is: can ant group still be listed? Do the shareholders of ant group have any chance to cash in the capital market?
Many financial people interviewed by Caijing said that in the short term, it is difficult to restart the IPO of ant group. At present, it is difficult to judge how long it will take for ant group to restart its IPO.
The penetration of ant groups large shareholder group may also become a problem that needs to be solved when it meets the listing conditions in the future.
The ultimate equity penetration map may not be made public, but regulators need to master this information, the financial professionals told Caijing According to the current technology, equity penetration is complex, but not impossible to implement. From the experience of overseas mature markets, equity penetration is relatively clear, but in our country, there are still many ways to go. In its view, in recent years, a large number of reduction and Realization of the company after listing is one of the reasons that affect the companys difficulty in becoming bigger and stronger and the growth of Chinas capital market.
As the huge IPO project with a market value of 2.1 trillion was suspended, the dream of wealth expected by the original shareholders and employees of ant group was temporarily stranded.
According to the public information of ant group, from 2015 to 2018, the company conducted several financing.
In May 2016, ant group conducted round B financing. At that time, 16 investors, including Zhifu (Shanghai) investment center, China Life Insurance, Shanghai Qihong investment center and China Gold Jiazi, participated in the round of financing, with a total investment of 29.1 billion yuan. After the completion of the financing, ants post investment valuation is about 390 billion yuan.
In 2018, ant group conducted two rounds of financing at home and abroad. Overseas, ant international has introduced 45 overseas investment institutions including Temasek. Ant international has issued 1.838 billion shares to these institutions with a transaction consideration of 10.3 billion US dollars. In China, it raised 21.8 billion yuan from Beijing innovation and growth enterprise management company, China Pacific Life Insurance, China Life Insurance, Beijing qianshun investment company, etc., and the post investment valuation rose to 960 billion yuan, equivalent to about 150 billion US dollars.
According to the investment of round a investors and the final valuation of ant group, if ant group can be listed successfully this time, the investment income of round a investors is expected to reach 10 times in five years, from 19.2 billion yuan to 192 billion yuan.
For those employees who expect to rely on equity incentives to gain value-added assets, millions of wealth has been temporarily destroyed.
In the prospectus, ant group had planned to implement equity incentive plan for employees. Among them, it is planned to use no more than 914 million shares for employee incentive in the next four years by means of additional issuance or repurchase after listing, of which, the A-share restricted stock incentive plan will not use more than 822 million shares, and the H-share incentive plan will use no more than 92 million shares. At the same time, the A-share restricted stock incentive plan will also include no more than 396 million shares of Hangzhou Junhan.
According to the issue price of 68.8 yuan / share of a shares and 80 Hong Kong dollars / share of H shares of ant group, the market value of these proposed incentive shares is expected to reach 90 billion yuan.
Assuming that all the shares are granted to the current 16600 employees of ant group, each of them can get 5.4 million yuan. For executives with larger holdings, the losses are much higher than the average.
On the eve of the listing, investors in the last round of trading may be the least disappointed group among ant group shareholders.
On the evening of November 3, after ant group was suspended from listing, the issue of refund of investors subscription funds was also put on the agenda.
The next day, ant group announced that the applied share proceeds (together with 1.0% brokerage commission, 0.0027% SFC transaction levy and 0.005% Hong Kong stock exchange transaction fee) for the Hong Kong public offering will be returned in two batches without interest.
On the evening of November 5, ant group announced that the issuer and the joint lead underwriters will return the investors according to the subscription funds of new shares paid by investors and the corresponding brokerage commission for new shares placement (if any), plus the bank deposit interest for the same period. The issuer and the joint lead underwriters will start the refund procedure on November 6, 2020, and the relevant funds will be returned on November 9, 2020. The shares subscribed by investors will be cancelled on November 6, 2020.
Investors who won the lottery have different reactions to this. Some investors said that Daxin ant group paid 34400 yuan in the first lot, which is expected to double after listing. Compared with the current refund, this expectation is a little big. However, some investors are more happy: ant groups listed share price performance may not be as expected after encountering supervision. If it breaks after listing, the loss will be greater.
As for the exit of the original shareholders, a senior securities industry personage told Caijing, if you are a value investor, you dont have to worry about when ant group will be listed. There is a valuation method, if the company can not be listed, do you buy it? If you dont buy it, its not a value investment.