Tianjin has entered a period of rapid development since Binhai New Area became a national strategy in 2006. Over the past ten years, the average annual growth rate has exceeded 15%. Walking along the seashore, it has already begun to have a magnificent atmosphere.
In 2017, the GDP of Binhai New Area shrank by 300 billion, and Tianjin ranked sixth from the fifth in China. GDP growth rate is only 3.6%, which is the bottom of the top ten cities. At the same time, there was an outflow of more than 50000 people in that year. By 2019, according to statistics, Tianjin has fallen to the 10th place in China. GDP was cut by hundreds of billions last year.
From the tenth year of 2009 to the tenth in Chinas economy. What happened?
Tianjins huge rise and fall, the appearance lies in the economic field, the essence lies in the reform field. For a long time, compared with many coastal cities, Tianjin has lagged behind in the field of reform. In 2017, it reached a peak. The highest decision-making level in Tianjin decided to set off the thunder of cutting coastal GDP and planted the seeds of determined reform.
After a short period of low tide, Tianjin gradually recovered blood. In 2018, Tianjin stopped the decline, although it could not restore the previous high-speed mode. But its back on the growth track. At the same time, the attractiveness of the population has been improved, with an additional population of about 30000.
Seven years ago, when Tianjin imitated Beijings restrictions on cars and houses, I proposed that Tianjin should not learn from Beijings restrictions on purchasing, but should instead rob people. A few years later, the prediction of Tianjin robbing people came true.
In 2018, Tianjin joined the battle of robbing people, which opened the door to young people with college degrees. In a few days, more than one million people applied to settle in Tianjin, creating a climax of the urban people grabbing war.
Last summer, Tianjin Economic and Technological Development Zone announced the cancellation of all public service personnel establishment and the realization of all staff competition for posts. In the new round of national reform, Tianjin took the lead and took a thorough and resolute step.
It is not samsara but Nirvana and transcendence instead of reincarnation.
Its better to fight for people, or to reform institutions vigorously. Both of them highlight the two major challenges facing Tianjin in the new generation. First, the political and economic cycle changes, and the external environment of Tianjin is unpredictable. In the market system and political system, both sides are not top-level, and both sides are not landing, which makes Tianjin in an awkward situation. Second, the rise of xiongan new area will impact Tianjin and force it to deepen its reform.
The resurgence of reform is only the prelude. It may be the best way out for Tianjin to become the most open city in the north.
Two do not rely on: the position is not yet the peak, the market is not perfect
Tianjin has been in line with Beijing in many aspects. At present, Tianjin has also implemented restrictions on the purchase of automobiles and the license plates of other places. In fact, although it is a municipality directly under the central government, Beijing and Shanghai have restrictions on the purchase of cars. Although there is a huge controversy, there is still capital. Tianjins restrictions on the purchase of cars are self cutting and self-help.
In the previous ten years, Tianjin continued to develop at a high speed. However, as we all know, the rapid development of Tianjin is mainly driven by Binhai New Area, and the rise of Binhai New Area mainly depends on the investment of central enterprises. This development mode relying on foreign monks has great uncertainty, which not only relies on investment, but also has no industrial security.
However, Chinas political cycle is generally calculated in ten years. In the past ten years, Tianjin has been favored by the state and has eaten the kitchen stove of national strategy for ten years. In the new decade, the national strategic focus has shifted. In the future, more attention will be paid to Wuhan, Chongqing, Xian, Chengdu and other inland regions. The Yangtze River Economic Belt will rise, xiongan new area will rise, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Hangzhou Bay will rise. It is believed that the state will invest more and Tianjins resource advantage will be diluted.
In 2017, Tianjins fixed asset investment increased by less than 1% and consumption by less than 2%. Where is it? There are not so many new central enterprises to support the market. The central government no longer gives preferential support, and the countrys small stove is gone.
With the support of central enterprises, financial investment and preferential policies, the era has come to an end.
Tianjin needs a high sense of urgency. We should speed up the development of local industries and revitalize the private economy.
Chinas economy is characterized by both the basic elements of market economy and the great influence of policies on the economy. The embarrassment of Tianjin in implementing the model of strong government and strong market is that it does not have an advantage in the two systems.
First look at the political system of Chinese cities.
Whether it is limited to cars or houses in Beijing, the talents of the whole country can only accommodate Beijing, burn incense, worship Buddha, and ask people for money. Tianjin cant do it. Its OK to limit cars and houses. Its ok if others dont come. You can make a detour.
Even if the threshold is raised, the proportion of net inflow population to permanent resident population in Beijing is 7.456 million, accounting for 34.6%. Higher than that of Tianjin.
In the market system, the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta cities have more advantages than Tianjin. In particular, Guangshen has developed private economy and prosperous local industries, attracting talents from all over the country. Its unique charm has attracted thousands of people.
Tianjins previous restrictions on cars and houses hurt young people from other places. Those who can afford to buy cars are mainly elites in the floating population. As a result, it is likely to lead to the elite migration of migrant population. Tianjins ability to absorb talents will be further reduced, which will be fatal to the future development of Tianjin.
Five years ago, Beijing Limited cars and houses. Tianjin should seize Beijings people and implement a differentiated development strategy with Beijing. We should seize the opportunity of restricting the purchase of automobiles and housing in Beijing, intensify the opening-up efforts, and strive to attract part of Beijings brain drain to Tianjin.
Its not too late to rob the sheeps prison, but its not too late to start.
If we started layout five years ago, the effect would be better. Whats more, we should seize top talents instead of quasi first-class talents.
Robbing people is just the beginning. Opening license plates and opening up the housing market will certainly follow.
Four changes in Tianjin in the future
A grassland, two lions, fascinating.
1. Central enterprises and other public resources and economic resources are diverted
The rise of Binhai New Area is due to the investment of central enterprises. Many central enterprises will invest in xiongan in the future
The weakening of the support of Binhai New Area will greatly weaken its competitiveness and have a great impact on Tianjin.
The third of the seven tasks entrusted to xiongan New Area by the central government is to develop high-tech industries. Many people even expect xiongan to become the Silicon Valley in northern China. Before that, in the layout of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Tianjin was given the mission of focusing on the development of high-tech industries.
3. Impact on Tianjins economic status
The impact of xiongan New Area on Tianjins economic status is manifested in two aspects.
First, the total economic volume and Tianjins ranking in Chinese cities. In the future, the public resources of Beijing and Tianjin, especially the diversion of central enterprises, will weaken the power and market resources that Beijing and Tianjin relied on for their rapid development.
Second, financial resources. In 2019, the balance of Tianjins domestic and foreign currency deposits is 3178.81 billion yuan, ranking 10th in China. In the future, if xiongan undertakes some financial institutions in Beijing, it will impact Beijing and Tianjin and weaken their financial resources.
Advantages and disadvantages go hand in hand, and the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. The new era also brings four opportunities for Tianjin.
In 2019, the total GDP of the Yangtze River Delta will exceed 23 trillion yuan, while that of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will be only more than 8 trillion yuan. Moreover, the internal development is not balanced. Beijing is the largest city and causes extensive darkness around the city.
Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei can change the pattern that Chinas economy is strong in the South and weak in the north, and narrow the gap between the north and the south. In the future, the revitalization of Northeast China and the rise of North China need to rely on Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
In this process, Tianjins strategic position in the country will be further improved.
2. Reshape the orientation of Beijing and Tianjin and increase the economic freedom of Tianjin
Although Beijing and Tianjin are also called municipalities directly under the central government, Tianjin cant look up to Beijing in terms of political status and market resources.
Previously, Beijing has both functions of Washington and New York. After the completion of xiongan New District, Beijing only retains the four major orientations of political, cultural and scientific and technological innovation center. Greater New York will be someone else. Its significant to remove the economic center.
3. Industrial Synergy makes Tianjin a strategic hinterland
The establishment of xiongan new area will make the industrial coordination between Tianjin and Hebei play a greater role.
Although xiongan has some competition with Tianjin in the high-end industry, generally speaking, Tianjin and Hebei are more complementary. In 2018, the per capita GDP of Hebei was 47800 yuan, and that of Tianjin was 120000 yuan. It is 2.5 times that of Hebei Province. It will narrow slightly in 2019, but the gap is still large.
The huge gap between Tianjin and Hebei makes them have strong complementarity in consumption structure and industrial structure.
Before that, because of Beijings strong administrative resources, Hebei had to focus on Beijing. After Beijings compulsory resources were relieved, Tianjins industrial advantages could play the most effective role. Tianjin needs to give full play to its regional advantages and industrial advantages, so as to make Hebei the most changed strategic hinterland.
4. Tianjin Port
Equilateral triangles depend on each other.
Beijing, Tianjin and Xiong are equilateral triangles of 100 km. Within the radiation range of high-speed railway for half an hour, the general train passenger transport or automobile is about an hour. In the future, with the rapid growth of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei economic circle, whether it is Beijing or xiongan, or other cities in Hebei, Tianjin port is a good choice.
Become an open city in the North
Before Shenzhen, after xiongan, reform and competition, catch up with each other.
In the future, the biggest hope for Tianjin to break through the encirclement is to rebuild the open city in the north. Tianjin free trade zone is the second largest free trade area in China after Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and it should become the starting point of reform in the future.
In the future, there are three opportunities for Tianjins reform.
The Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are still in the forefront. Tianjin needs to recognize this gap and strive to catch up with it to give full play to its latecomer advantages. At the same time, Tianjin also needs to have a global perspective and speed up its integration with the world through the free trade zone.
The reform cost of Tianjin is relatively low. In other places, when building registered residence barriers, talent barriers and restrictions, Tianjin can seize the opportunity to compete for some talents in Beijing and other places. There are also institutional advantages. Taking license plate control as an example, Tianjin should not restrict license plates, but open to the whole country in an all-round way.
In 2018, Tianjin launched a war of robbing people, and many talents came from Beijing and the whole country, with initial results. In 2019, Tianjins population will still grow by 23000.
Tianjin has the convenience of a municipality directly under the central government, but it is not as helpless and constrained as Beijing as the capital. It is more flexible in the field of reform and should become an example of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
The third opportunity is to take the lead in local areas in the era of reform everywhere.
In the early stage of the reform, China implemented an unbalanced development strategy. The reform field was first tested in the reform special zones and then popularized throughout the country. After the mid-term reform, a new phenomenon is that the breakthrough of reform is no longer from coastal areas to inland areas. In different fields, there are different situation breakers.
For example, in the field of medical insurance reform, the first and most thorough reform is Shenmu in Shaanxi Province, which lives in the inland. The inevitable result of the decentralization of reform is that any place can become the vanguard of local reform, and Tianjin should have the spirit of pioneering general.
The success or failure of the free trade zone will sound the clarion call for Tianjins reform. In the future, Tianjin needs to be built into the city with the highest degree of marketization in the north and the most open and broad city in the north. This is the biggest opportunity for Tianjin.
In the future, Tianjin needs to make breakthroughs in three areas.
The first is the mode of economic development.
Tianjins lofty political status can be favored and temporarily taken care of by the power system. However, the mode of relying on large projects and mainly relying on state-owned enterprises did not bring wealth to the people. Moreover, this development model has great uncertainty. Once Tianjins advantage of public resources is diluted, the vibration is bound to be huge. Tianjin needs a high sense of urgency. We should speed up the development of local industries and revitalize the private economy. Release market vitality and hedge the impact of dilution of public resource advantage.
The third is the reform in the social field
In terms of per capita GDP, Tianjin has reached the standard of the worlds developed cities, and has the basis for comprehensive reform from economic transformation to social transformation. In the future, we can carry out extensive layout and attempt in reducing the gap between the rich and the poor, expanding equity, realizing peoples wealth, revitalizing civil rights, and innovating social governance.
In particular, it should be emphasized that municipalities directly under the central government are the vanguard of reform, not the fortress of vested interests, and need a dynamic, pluralistic, open and relaxed social atmosphere.
This thorough reform of public institutions in Tianjin is a good start.
Tianjin has a long way to go.
(the author is the founder of Jingbang think tank, the author of great powers and cities, dedicated to the study of national and urban strategy)
Source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of Economic Observer_ NB12679