At the end of the year, its A-share outlook season.
Societe Generale Securities pointed out that 2021, as the opening year of the fourteenth five year plan and the first year after the establishment of A-share in the past 30 years, a new atmosphere will appear in the institutional environment, investor structure and the quality of listed companies. The overall market will fluctuate upward in 2021.
Four factors will become the booster of long bull. First, institutional factors. The basic system of the capital market is constantly improving, the comprehensive registration system is about to be implemented, and the delisting system is expected to be introduced, which provides a good policy soil for the determination of the trend of A-shares U.S. stock market; second, regulatory factor, the capital market has entered the era of strict supervision, the market is running healthily and stably, and the financing function is playing a significant role Third, the quality of listed companies has been improved and the market order has improved significantly; third, after 30 years of horse racing, high-quality leading core assets have won, and more and more good enterprises have landed in the capital market, which can enable investors to share the dividend of national development; fourth, investors are institutionalized, and institutional investors hold 30% of the circulating market value of a shares, and the investor structure Gradually optimizing and eliminating retail investors are more conducive to A-share long bull.
First, under the global economic resonance, the A-share absolute fundamentals have strong repair strength and sustainability, similar to the global economic cycle recovery stage in history. As the worlds largest manufacturing country, it still enjoys a higher elasticity of relative fundamentals; second, Europe and the United States and other severe epidemic areas climb out of the deeper pit, the proportion of service industry in GDP is higher, and a larger scale of stimulus policies are adopted during the epidemic period However, the pit of Chinas fundamentals is shallower than that of overseas countries, the proportion of service industry in GDP is lower than that of Europe and the United States, monetary policy returns to normal earlier, and the economic recovery in the second half of 2020 includes a large number of exports of epidemic materials and transfer orders caused by limited overseas production capacity. In a stage after the vaccine production and the slowdown of the epidemic situation, the recovery resilience of the European and American economies may be stronger, while that of China will be stronger It is possible to converge to the fundamental dominance.
In contrast, Huatai Securities believes that the first possibility is higher. If Sino US trade relations ease up as expected, China, as the largest manufacturing country, is expected to maintain its relative fundamental advantage rather than converge.
CITIC Securities also said that A-share is still in the medium-term upward channel, and the slow rise of A-share in 2021 will go through three stages, namely, rotation slow rise period, quiet period and resonance upward period. To be specific, the market will be in a period of slow growth from the next year to the second quarter of next year. During this period, domestic fundamentals were clearly restored, overseas fundamentals were expected to be strengthened with vaccination, Sino US game was in a vacuum period, macro monetary environment was loose, policy event density was high, and market action was strong; the overall market in the second quarter to the third quarter of next year was in a calm period. During this period, the fundamental expectations have been revised sufficiently, the normalization of domestic and foreign monetary policies has become the focus of attention, the reform of the whole market registration system has been implemented, and the market is relatively calm. The market will enter a resonance upward period in the fourth quarter of next year. During this period, the developed economies basically walked out of the haze of the epidemic, the growth of domestic fundamentals slowed down, the internal and external circulation was fully repaired, and the global equity market was positively resonant.
The new era securities has put forward the view that this round of bull market may last for three years.
The broker believes that although the bull market is short before, the core reason for the bull markets end is downside or extreme bubble valuation. In 2021, the economy and the profits of listed companies will continue to improve. In this situation, it is difficult for A-share to turn into a bear market. Based on the judgment of the economic strength and the inflow intensity of residents, the bull market will continue to be deduced in 2021 with a third year of bull market. The shock since mid July 2020 has fully released the main short-term concerns. As long as the epidemic situation does not appear out of control risk, the year-end market may gradually unfold. The scale of the market depends on the economic strength. If the economic strength can be further strengthened at the beginning of the year, the index may rise to Q2 in 2021. Subsequently, due to the recovery of economic activity, monetary policy may be further tightened, which will bring market disturbance in the second half of 2021.
Foreign institutions are also optimistic about Chinas economic recovery and A-share trend next year.
Mike Shiao, chief investment director of Jingshun Asia (excluding Japan), believes that Chinas stock market will usher in a fruitful year in 2021.
Chinas stock market is now the second largest stock market in the world. At present, more than 5500 Chinese enterprises are listed in the mainland of China, Hong Kong and the United States, providing a lot of investment opportunities, mainly in the structural growth areas such as the Internet, consumption and health care. He said.
In terms of allocation, consumption and science and technology are still the push plate of institutions.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that the strongest industrial trend next year comes from the policy dividend released by the 14th five year plan and the five-year plan for strategic emerging industries. In addition, Chinas consumption upgrading continues, and the new consumption trend is worthy of attention. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: the 14th five year plan and the policy dividend of double cycle, the new areas and strong certainty areas of strategic emerging industry planning, and the new consumption trend under the background of consumption upgrading.
CITIC Securities said that in the slow rising period of rotation, it is recommended to adhere to the allocation of Pro cyclical varieties and take into account the relevant themes of the 14th five year plan. Under the general trend of expected strengthening of internal and external fundamentals, procyclicality is the most important main line, among which optional consumption and industrial sectors have obvious added value. In addition, we can take into account the semiconductor and fertility policies that are expected to be implemented first in the 14th five year plan. In the quiet period, it is suggested to increase the allocation of big finance and necessary consumption; in terms of theme, the second quarter can focus on new energy and national defense security. In the second half of the year, as the market gradually moves from a quiet period to a resonant upward period, the relative allocation value of science and technology sectors with greater long-term growth potential, as well as pharmaceuticals with valuation digestion and at the turning point of profit growth, will increase.
The Northeast Securities strategy believes that consumption and technology are still the main line in the medium and long term. From the perspective of macro background and industrial development trend, the profitability advantages of consumption and technology since this years interim report are expected to remain sustainable next year; in the medium and long term, A-share has entered the process of institutional era, and the consumption and technology preferred by foreign investors and public funds are the main styles of the late market; from the perspective of matching profit and valuation, medical devices, general machinery, electronic manufacturing, and white goods Color household appliances, pharmaceutical business and other industries should be focused on.