Prices hit a three-year high, the boom in this industry has soared, concept stocks have taken off

category:Finance
 Prices hit a three-year high, the boom in this industry has soared, concept stocks have taken off


Aluminum concept stocks have also taken off. Since November, the wind aluminum index has risen by more than 28%, Chalco, a leading stock, has risen by more than 41%, Yunan aluminum has risen by more than 60%, and Nanshan aluminum has risen by more than 20%.

Industry insiders said that from a macro point of view, the good news from vaccine research and development, economic recovery and other aspects made the market sentiment significantly warm, and promoted the prices of aluminum, copper and other industrial products to rise.

The main consumer markets for aluminum are construction, electricity and automobiles. In recent two years, a large number of real estate projects to be completed will bring strong demand. In addition, the prosperity of the new energy vehicle market also brings new increment in aluminum consumption, and the demand for home appliances, grid investment, and aluminum exports are also recovering. All these factors will stimulate and support aluminum prices.

Low inventory and high demand

Aluminum fundamentals are optimistic

Ye Jianjun, an aluminum ingot analyst at the business club, said that at present, the aluminum market is basically oriented to the good. On the one hand, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum moved down to a low level. As of November 19, Chinas social inventory of electrolytic aluminum totaled 615000 tons, while on October 16, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 719000 tons, and 104000 tons had been removed. On the other hand, the downstream of electrolytic aluminum starts well, and the terminal consumption is bright. The operating rate of primary alloy enterprises has risen recently, and the photovoltaic and automobile market in the terminal market still maintain a strong trend in the short term.

At the end of the year, part of the production capacity of alumina as raw material was suspended. For example, according to Ye Jianjun, all production lines of China Power Investment Guizhou Zunyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. were shut down in early October and are expected to resume production early next year. Chinalco Shanxi new materials Co., Ltd. is expected to shut down a production line of 800000 tons by the end of November.

In addition, the northern region has also entered the heating season. Aluminum industrial bases such as Shanxi and Henan have successively issued air pollution prevention and control measures. Environmental protection and emission reduction are still expected to exist, which also supports the aluminum price.

Guotai Junan Securities said that according to the calculation, domestic aluminum consumption will grow by more than 10% in 2020, far exceeding market expectations. In the future, the rise of all aluminum customization, the large volume of new energy vehicles and large-scale photovoltaic installation are expected to ignite new growth points, and high aluminum prices are expected to continue or even continue to rise.

Industry profits continue to rise

Performance of listed aluminum enterprises doubled

How prosperous is the aluminum industry?

In the first quarter of this year, electrolytic aluminum once fell below the cost line of about 12000 yuan / ton. At the end of March and the beginning of April, Shanghai aluminums main contract reached 11200 yuan / ton. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was - 2093 yuan / ton at the end of March.

The high profit of aluminum industry can be seen from the financial data of listed aluminum enterprises.

In the first quarter of 2020, affected by public health events, aluminum prices fell by more than 20%. Chalco realized a net profit of 30.718 million yuan, down 93.1% year-on-year.

After April, aluminum prices began to rebound, and rose significantly in the third quarter. In the third quarter, Chinalco realized a net profit of 719 million yuan to its parent company, a year-on-year increase of 146% and a month on month increase of 649%. In response to investors on November 19, Jiaozuo Wanfang said that the rise in aluminum prices had a positive impact on the companys performance and benefited from the rise in aluminum prices. As of the third quarter, the company realized a net profit of 369 million yuan to its parent company, up 1264.02% year-on-year. According to the latest research report published by UBS, with the improvement of aluminum industry capacity utilization rate and the low stock of domestic aluminum warehouse in China, the profitability of aluminum suppliers will be more optimistic in the next few years. Aluminum demand is expected to grow by 8% in 2020, which is higher than 3% previously expected. The growth momentum will continue to 2021, and the aluminum demand will increase by 4.8% in 2021. Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4368

After April, aluminum prices began to rebound, and rose significantly in the third quarter. In the third quarter, Chinalco realized a net profit of 719 million yuan to its parent company, a year-on-year increase of 146% and a month on month increase of 649%.

In response to investors on November 19, Jiaozuo Wanfang said that the rise in aluminum prices had a positive impact on the companys performance and benefited from the rise in aluminum prices. As of the third quarter, the company realized a net profit of 369 million yuan to its parent company, up 1264.02% year-on-year.

According to the latest research report published by UBS, with the improvement of aluminum industry capacity utilization rate and the low stock of domestic aluminum warehouse in China, the profitability of aluminum suppliers will be more optimistic in the next few years. Aluminum demand is expected to grow by 8% in 2020, which is higher than 3% previously expected. The growth momentum will continue to 2021, and the aluminum demand will increase by 4.8% in 2021.