Is the crash coming? The biggest bubble of 10000 billion cars is born?

category:Finance
 Is the crash coming? The biggest bubble of 10000 billion cars is born?


On the evening of 25th Beijing time, the decline of new auto makers in China capital stock market continued to expand. As of 21:30, ideal car fell nearly 14%, Xiaopeng auto dropped more than 12%, and Weilai auto fell nearly 10%. Compared with the recent rising trend, the concept of new energy vehicles has been significantly reduced. At the same time, a number of A-share new energy vehicle concept stocks also showed a correction.

As of the end of the U.S. stock market, Xiaopeng automobile fell 9.17%, ideal car fell 7.37%, only Weilai rose 0.36% with the strength of late trading.

Cheng Siqi, chief analyst of China Securities auto industry, analyzed to the Chinese reporters of securities companies that the reason why the concept stocks of new energy vehicles have soared in recent years is related to the sharp rise in terminal sales, policies and market boosting expectations. In addition, some researchers believe that at the end of the year, some funds will adjust their positions to find the direction of the next year, and the certainty of new energy vehicles is relatively strong. Therefore, this sentiment is quite extreme this year.

Digital researchers believe that in the short term, there will be a bubble in the concept of new energy vehicles, but if viewed from a long-term perspective, the new energy vehicle track will be thick and snowy in the next few years. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to risk control in the short term, and lay out some targets which are still in low growth position and have large expectation difference.

New energy vehicle concept stocks have callback

In recent years, new energy vehicle concept stocks hot. Although after 24 days of slight decline, as of the end of the 24th, the market value of Weilai automobile still exceeded 72 billion US dollars, surpassing 46.5 billion US dollars of SAIC Group; meanwhile, the market value of Xiaopeng automobile exceeded 50 billion US dollars for the first time, and the market value of ideal automobile exceeded 36 billion US dollars. The combined market value of the three is more than 1 trillion yuan.

Weipeng automobiles rise is close to the ideal range of 117% at the beginning of the month, and the autos rise has exceeded the ideal of 260% since the end of the month. Teslas range gain was only 43%.

In response to the sharp rise of new energy vehicle stocks in foreign stock markets, although the A-share new energy vehicle stocks are limited by the limit of up and down limits, they have also increased significantly in recent years. For example, Xiaokang shares has increased by more than 120% since the beginning of the month. It also issued a risk warning announcement that in the second half of this year, the company focused on promoting the marketing of new energy vehicles under its seles brand. At present, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is small, and due to the uncertainty of market competition pattern and future market demand, there is a risk that the sales are not as expected.

In addition, Changan Automobile, Tianqi lithium industry, Tianci materials, BAIC Blue Valley, Huayou cobalt and other stocks increased by more than 30%.

Tesla is developing an electric car with a 1000 kilometer range

New energy vehicle concept stocks in the obvious rise, leading enterprise Tesla recent news. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is developing an electric car with a 1000 kilometer range at a European Battery Conference on the 24th, according to the news agency.

In fact, musk tweeted last April that the new roadster would have a range of 1000 kilometers, even though it was a few years behind schedule. At present, the new roadster has been launched on Chinas official website and began to accept bookings. Musk has said the new roadster will be the fastest car with a top speed of 250 miles per hour. It takes only 2.1 seconds to accelerate 100 km and can travel 620 miles on a single charge.

Musk also said Teslas plant near Berlin will produce electric cars that cater to European buyers. As we all know, European buyers tend to be smaller, more affordable models that help the environment.

Tesla applied to recall 9136 modelx and 401 modelys produced in 2016, according to the NHTSA website on November 25, local time.

Short term view of new energy vehicle stocks exist bubble

Why does the concept stock of new energy vehicles rise sharply in the near future? Cheng Siqi, chief analyst of China Securities auto industry, analyzed to the reporter that: first, from the perspective of terminal sales, the car market continued to warm up, and the high outlook continued. At the same time, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise sharply. In addition to Tesla, the sales volume of new energy vehicles such as ES6, Han, etc. of new automobile manufacturers and traditional automobile enterprises were all bright. Second, policies and market boost the expectation of the development of new energy vehicle industry The exhibition plan (2021-2035) marks the launch of new energy vehicles in China from the cultivation period to the development period. The large volume of high-end new energy vehicles and the positioning and demand of low-end new energy vehicles open the market, which gives the market a better expectation.

Other researchers believe that at the end of the year, some funds will be transferred to look for the direction of the next year, and the certainty of new energy vehicles is relatively strong, so this sentiment is quite extreme this year.

Zhang Jingshu, managing director of the Waymo, believes that Teslas automatic driving technology is not as good as that of Google. The business model is a typical heavy asset model, which is not the same as Apples light assets, so Tesla is the largest bubble in human history according to market value.

Behind the rampant market capitalization, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal have recently announced that the gross profit margin has turned positive. However, from the perspective of sales volume, the new force automobile manufacturing enterprises are still less than the small fraction of the traditional automobile enterprises. According to the public data, as of the end of October, Weilai automobile has delivered 31400 vehicles in total in the year. The annual sales volume of Xiaopeng and ideal in 2019 are about 15000, which is far behind the traditional automobile giants.

The number of respondents said that the recent concept of new energy vehicles rose sharply, in the short term does rise faster, there is a certain bubble; but if viewed from a long-term perspective, if the industry to 20% penetration in 2025, it is expected that in 2022 the new energy penetration can reach about 10% inflection point, and then will gradually accelerate, from this perspective, the next few years, the new energy vehicle racing slope. The snow is long and thick.

Global new energy vehicle boom will continue to improve in 2021

After a period of pull up the concept of new energy vehicles stocks, whether there is investment value in the short term? Some analysts of securities companies have given investment suggestions. Compared with the stocks related to medium cap stocks, investors can pay attention to risk control in the short term, and lay out some targets that are still in low growth position and have large expectation difference.

For the future outlook of A-share new energy automobile stocks, the above-mentioned large-scale securities analysts believe that the current position is recommended to continue to hold, but if the liquidity shrinks, the whole new energy sector may have a certain callback pressure. At present, the difference between the head of new energy vehicle brands and electrification has gradually narrowed, and the next step of competition will take place in the field of intelligence. It is expected that the new energy vehicle sector will be polarized in the next year.

Domestically, the economy will pick up in the second half of 2020, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2021. Affected by the epidemic situation, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in the first two quarters of 2020 decreased by 59% and 27% respectively on a year-on-year basis. In the third quarter of 2020, the industry prosperity was obviously better, and the sales volume increased by 41% year-on-year. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 1.15 million in 2020, with a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Looking forward to 2021, the industry is expected to recover, the operation market will recover, and many new models will drive the market demand. Judging from the supply side, the domestic sales volume is expected to reach 1.78 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 55%. From the supply side, it is expected that the main growth will include 0.1 million Tesla Model cars, 100 000 Volkswagen MEB joint venture models, 100 000 new auto makers, more than 100 000 BYD vehicles, and 200000 other independent traditional vehicle enterprises such as Shanghai Wuling. New energy vehicles are the national strategic direction. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5.5 million by 2025, and the penetration rate will be close to 20%.

Overseas, European electrification continues and Tesla leads the world. In 2019, 550000 new energy vehicles will be sold in Europe. Driven by the subsidy policy and new carbon emission regulations, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first three quarters of 2020 will reach 730000, with a year-on-year increase of 93%. It is estimated that the sales volume in 2020 and 2021 will be 1.1 million and 1.5 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 100% and 36% respectively. In 2021, Tesla is expected to continue to expand its production. The second phase of the Chinese plant, the new factories in Europe and Texas in the United States will be put into operation. Modely will be delivered in China and cybertruck will be delivered in the United States. CITIC Securities believes that Tesla has outstanding competitiveness in electric intelligent vehicle products, and its growth certainty is high. It is estimated that the global output of Tesla is expected to reach 550000 and 870000 in 2020 and 2021, which will promote the global electrification to a new level.

The 2021 strategy of Guohai Securities shows that, overall, under the background of policy escort, the industrial chain has a solid foundation, and the industry fundamentals usher in a medium and long-term upward trend.

1) Model supply: Overseas Tesla and European automobile giants are abundant in model supply, which is expected to continue to exceed expectations; domestic transformation vehicle enterprises represented by BYD, as well as new automobile manufacturing forces such as Weilai, ideality, Xiaopeng and Weima may continue to provide popular models.

2) Product price: part of the rise, upward signs have been shown, catalyzing plate sentiment. For example, the main demand side, long logic: lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide u2192 6F u2192 electrolyte industry chain; product upgrading, copper foil ultrathin.

3) Performance level: in 2021, the demand will continue to grow at a high speed and relatively certain. The leader of industrial chain segmentation will fully benefit. The future performance is expected to rise quarter by quarter on a month on month basis. The performance consolidation will become the core catalyst for the plate market.

[highly recommended

On November 30, 20:00-22:00, Changsheng time u00b7 2020 property market closing meeting, Yao Changsheng, deputy editor in chief of Netease media and senior real estate personage, gave a live interpretation of the course. The price of the course was 1999 yuan / person, and the top 200 applicants were entitled to a special price of 799 yuan / person. If you have any questions, please add the Houchang village fairy wechat (money163888) for consultation.

Source of this article: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of securities companies in China_ NB12679