Since the third quarter, glass has become the most urgent and the largest price increase segment in the whole photovoltaic industry chain, and the price doubled in just four months.
The price of photovoltaic glass has been rising all the way from July and August. At present, the price of the mainstream large single of 3.2mm coated glass is 42 yuan / m2, and the price of small single is as high as 48 yuan-50 yuan / square meter, Wang Shuai, senior analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told interface news, it has reached a historical peak.
Glass is one of the important packaging materials for photovoltaic modules. Its strength and transmittance directly determine the life and power generation efficiency of the modules. The modules are the final products of the photovoltaic industry.
At present, photovoltaic glass is experiencing unprecedented price increase and capacity gap, and the profit and shipment of module enterprises are suffering from losses. Whether the photovoltaic glass can achieve the annual goal of photovoltaic installation set by the government is also facing a big test.
For the current photovoltaic industry, how big is the glass capacity gap?
Considering the rush to install at the end of the year, the glass gap in the fourth quarter should be much larger than this.
The top management of another leading component enterprise in China told the interface news that the head enterprises had long-term guarantee, and there were few cases of delaying orders due to glass supply problems, and the main loss was the sharp increase in costs. However, the second and third line component enterprises will stop production due to lack of glass, resulting in default delivery.
According to the above-mentioned executives, large module factories basically sign long-term orders with photovoltaic glass factories, but lock the quantity but not the price. The components have the nature of futures. If large factories want to continue to carry out the original orders, they need to bear the profit erosion brought by the sharp increase of glass price at this stage..
With the continuous decline of the cost of the main photovoltaic industry chain, the packaging cost based on auxiliary materials is gradually becoming the main part of the cost of photovoltaic modules.
Wang Shuai believes that the main reason for the continuous rise in glass prices since the third quarter is the shrinking demand affected by the epidemic situation in the first half of the year, which has been released intensively since the middle of May. However, the glass production line is relatively stable and the construction period of new production capacity is long, resulting in short-term shortage of supply.
In recent years, the internal technical wind direction change of photovoltaic industry is also the indirect catalytic factor of glass shortage.
Song Hao, director of investor relations of Jingke Technology (601778. SH), analyzed the interface news. At present, the product line of photovoltaic modules is diversified, and there are 158.75mm, 182mm, 210mm and other sizes in the market, which leads to structural shortage of glass. Jingke technology is one of the leading developers of photovoltaic power station in China.
In addition, the rapid increase in the market share of double glass components also led to a substantial increase in glass consumption.
Photovoltaic modules are sandwich structure, that is, the cells connected in series are packaged with packaging materials. The conventional single glass module structure is glass + glue + battery plate + glue + back plate material , while the double glass module is to replace the back plate with glass. Song Hao said.
Double glass components are the mainstream type of double-sided components. The double-sided module uses double-sided battery to replace the traditional back panel with photovoltaic glass or transparent backplane, which can increase benefits by using back power generation, and has the advantage of per kilowatt hour cost. Therefore, double-sided components have become one of the mainstream methods of efficient component packaging.
According to industry estimates, the market share of double glass components has reached 30% this year, an increase of 10% over last year, and it is expected that the market share will exceed 60% in three years.
According to the companys announcement and Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the domestic PV glass production capacity is expected to increase by 6900 tons / day this year. Among them, 58% of Xinyis light energy and 29% of Fletts.
BOC Securities pointed out that due to the impact of the early epidemic situation, the construction progress of some new production capacity of photovoltaic glass this year is slower than expected, the annual production plan is expected to be lower than expected, and the effective output is expected to increase by about 600000-800000 tons.
Recently, China Southern Glass Group and Qibin group announced that they intend to build 4800 T / D and 1200 T / D photovoltaic glass production capacity respectively, but the production time will be from the end of 2021 to the middle of 2022.
In the face of high price and shortage of glass, the profit and shipping loss of component enterprises believe that the one size fits all production capacity policy of glass enterprises and the state is the main reason for the current situation.
Component manufacturers believe that the upstream glass manufacturers should take the initiative and take the initiative to ensure the supply together with the downstream component enterprises.
According to GlobalData statistics, the above six enterprises ranked first, second, third, fourth, fifth and seventh in the world.
Glass enterprises do not agree with the accusations of photovoltaic enterprises.
The relevant person in charge of fulette told interface news reporters that it was unreasonable for photovoltaic enterprises to blame the glass production capacity for the problem. In the final analysis, the expansion pace of photovoltaic industry is too fast, and the demand is concentrated in the second half of the year, and there is no time for glass enterprises to adjust production capacity..
The person in charge revealed that at present, the glass enterprises are full of orders, and it is expected that the shortage of supply will continue until the Spring Festival next year. With the gradual release of new production capacity, there will be some relief after the festival.
A securities analyst, who did not want to be named, also believed that the mismatch in the pace of expansion of various links in the photovoltaic industry chain is a long-standing problem in the industry, which is the important reason for the glass shortage this time.
Many industry insiders told interface news that with the launch of new production capacity, the tension of glass supply will be eased in the next year. However, the overall supply and demand will still be tight in view of the new production capacity restriction of the glass industry and the long production cycle of the glass production line.
Ding Wenlei, executive director of Shandong Hangyu Energy Co., Ltd., told interface news that the construction period of glass projects is very long. Generally, the construction period of glass kilns is more than one and a half years, and it needs at least one quarter to upgrade the production capacity.
The industry calls on the government to release the approval of the new production line of photovoltaic glass.
According to the report of Finance and Economics on November 6, a person in charge of the Ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) said that it was studying and revising the relevant policies to moderately relax the glass capacity replacement conditions. The relevant departments planned to implement a policy different from the traditional float glass to release the production capacity as soon as possible.
Due to the slowdown in domestic demand around the Spring Festival, it is expected that the price of photovoltaic glass will appear a rational correction in the first quarter of next year. Wang Shuai predicted that, considering the strong demand of the photovoltaic industry, the price trend in the second half of next year will be mainly fluctuating.
In her opinion, the driving force for the rise of glass prices is insufficient. First, it has reached a historical high. Second, component factories purchase mainly by long orders, and the price will not be raised any more. The demand for the December list has slowed down compared with that in November.
Song Hao pointed out that the current national glass policy will limit or increase the cost of new scarce glass production capacity, and add to the demand of photovoltaic industry, and the possibility of intermittent price rise of glass in the next few years is high.
Under the long-term expectation of strong demand and tight supply, photovoltaic enterprises began to seek alternative solutions to relieve glass difficulties.
According to the interface news, photovoltaic glass is indeed the first choice for dual glass modules. However, there are two feasible alternatives in the industry, namely, float glass and transparent backplane materials.
A securities analyst who did not want to be named told interface news that the photovoltaic glass is the mainstream product of ultra white calendered glass, which has higher performance than ordinary glass. Due to the shortage of supply, the common float glass can also replace the back plate glass in the double glass module. Although the application is limited, it can play a part in alleviating the problem.
At the same time, transparent backplane is also expected to usher in a wave of development dividend due to the shortage of photovoltaic glass. Replacing traditional backplane with transparent backplane is also a product type of double-sided components.
It is expected that transparent backplane and related components as glass substitutes are expected to occupy a certain market share in the future.
The price of transparent back panel was higher than that of glass before, and it has not been applied in large area in empirical research, so the market demand is limited. This round of glass prices skyrocketed, the demand for transparent back panel will increase. Song Hao pointed out that the two alternatives sacrifice part of the conversion efficiency and reliability, but do not constitute a core obstacle.
Lin Jianwei, chairman of Chinalco (300393. SZ), told interface news that the companys existing transparent backplane production capacity of 10 million square meters is in full production. China to start a new round of capacity expansion, is expected to put into use in the third quarter of next year.
According to industry data, the global shipment volume of transparent backplane components is about 2.5gw in 2019, and is expected to reach 7gw in 2020.
Since the second half of this year, due to the epidemic situation, production accidents and safety self inspection and other factors in Xinjiang, the price of silicon materials has risen rapidly, driving the general rise of other manufacturing links such as silicon wafers, batteries and components.
Affected by the epidemic situation, the overall installed capacity in the first half of this year was less, and the price of components dropped sharply, with the lowest value of 1.4 yuan per watt. Song Hao said that after September, the price of components rebounded rapidly driven by the rising prices of silicon and glass. At present, the spot price is at the level of 1.7-1.8 yuan per watt, up nearly 30%.
He believes that from the perspective of power station development, the component price of 1.7-1.8 yuan can not meet the minimum requirement of return on capital, and most projects may be postponed to next year or even after.
It is a general trend that the cost of photovoltaic products continues to decline. There is no need for power station developers to develop projects at high prices. The power station is their long-term income source, and the initial cost is an important factor affecting the overall income level Song Hao said. In the first half of the year, 11.5gw of photovoltaic capacity was added in China, which was basically the same as last year. The industry had expected that, boosted by the results of subsidy bidding and the new capacity of photovoltaic energy consumption in the whole year, nearly 30GW of new photovoltaic capacity will be added in the second half of the year, and 40-43gw of new photovoltaic capacity will be added in the whole year. This figure will be more than 30% higher than last year. Last year, Chinas newly added photovoltaic capacity was 30.1gw. Peng Peng believes that under the influence of this round of rising prices of upstream materials, the price of components will reach a high level, which will reduce the expected installed capacity of this year. It is estimated that the new installed capacity will be reduced by 7-8gw compared with the original estimate.. Source: interface news editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368
It is a general trend that the cost of photovoltaic products continues to decline. There is no need for power station developers to develop projects at high prices. The power station is their long-term income source, and the initial cost is an important factor affecting the overall income level Song Hao said.
In the first half of the year, 11.5gw of photovoltaic capacity was added in China, which was basically the same as last year. The industry had expected that, boosted by the results of subsidy bidding and the new capacity of photovoltaic energy consumption in the whole year, nearly 30GW of new photovoltaic capacity will be added in the second half of the year, and 40-43gw of new photovoltaic capacity will be added in the whole year.
Peng Peng believes that under the influence of this round of rising prices of upstream materials, the price of components will reach a high level, which will reduce the expected installed capacity of this year. It is estimated that the new installed capacity will be reduced by 7-8gw compared with the original estimate..