Smart money changes into hidden secrets

category:Finance
 Smart money changes into hidden secrets


Since 2018, in the continuous buy and buy process, the impression of traditional white horse stocks, such as foreign capitals preference for consumption, has been deeply imprinted in the minds of A-share investors. However, the recent foreign painting style mutation, began to sell some of the traditional white horse stocks, add some cyclical stocks.

According to Oriental Wealth data, in the last three days, the top three companies with the largest reduction scale of northward funds were Midea Group of 697 million yuan, Haier Zhijia of 650 million yuan, Hikvision of 615 million yuan. Aier Ophthalmology, Angel yeast and Yili shares also suffered different degrees of reduction; at the same time, some cyclical stocks were increased by northward funds, such as jiacang Xuji Electric 442 million yuan, Wanhua chemical 441 million yuan and Baosteel Shares of 347 million yuan, Tianqi lithium, PetroChina, Juhua shares, etc. have also been varying degrees of increase.

Chen Xiaoping, chairman of Shanghai Hedao Asset Management Co., Ltd., said that after several years of growth, the value of consumer Baima shares has been high. Although the industry is still booming, institutional investors are divided. Relatively speaking, cycle stocks are cheap and fully adjusted. The smooth progress of overseas vaccine development contributes to the global economic recovery. The global inventory cycle bottoms out, leading to a sharp rise in global commodity prices. This pattern is expected to continue until the end of the economic recovery.

Layout mystery

In recent years, the investment ability of foreign capital has been recognized more and more, especially the ability to arrange in advance. For example, in 2018, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 24.59%, while foreign investors continued to buy and buy in that year, and the annual net inflow of A-share capital reached 294.2 billion yuan.

Fu Gang, chairman of Hedong Asset Management Co., Ltd., said that there is a consensus in the current market, that is, the money supply is greatly increased under the epidemic situation. In the capital driven market, the pro cyclical plate is worth looking forward to. The investment period of foreign capital is too long, and they tend to attach more importance to the valuation. In 2018, foreign investors increased their positions in A-shares and some public offerings decreased their positions, which were all related to the investment period. From the perspective of long-term investment, cyclical stocks are more attractive than consumer stocks at the current time point.

In Chen Xiaopings view, foreign capital and public offering have similar styles in the past two years, and both follow the logic of value investment. He believes that public funds are also gradually transferring part of their positions to the cyclical sector, but there is a lag in the periodic reports of public funds, which is expected to be reflected in the annual report. Due to the large number of white horse stocks held by public funds, in the long run, they have stable returns, and it is unlikely that they will change substantially from consumer stocks to cyclical stocks.

Fu Gang predicts that the public offering may also switch to the pro cyclical sector by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, because of the large volume of foreign investment and the high switching cost between plates, the layout should be advanced.

Follow the trend with caution

Pang Jianfeng believes that this is mainly because the restrictions on foreign investment into Chinas stock market have been significantly reduced last year, and a number of international well-known index funds were included in a shares last year, but this effect has been weakened this year.

Fu Gang believes that foreign capital will continue to flow into a shares, one of the important factors is the expected appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which will greatly increase the attractiveness of RMB assets.

With the foreign investors quietly buying cycle stocks, should investors follow the copy operation of foreign capital and arrange periodic stocks at the same time?

From the perspective of game theory, it is possible to increase the distribution of Pro cyclical plates in the short term. However, the pro cyclical sector involves many industries such as finance, real estate, nonferrous metals, coal and so on. With a large number of individual stocks, only by careful selection can we copy the operation well. Pang Jianfeng said.

Chen Xiaoping said that the operation of foreign capital has certain reference value. But all investment activities must be based on their own trading system and their own in-depth thinking of logic. It is not the wisest way to follow anyones copy operation . At present, the periodic stock market has been launched, with the corresponding macro logic support. The economic recovery will benefit from the wrong valuation.

Simple copy homework , such as foreign investment buy which I buy, do not necessarily make money. With its own investment logic and the increase of foreign investment buying, there will be a significant alpha improvement. Said Fu Gang.

Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NBJ9607