One ant is so small that it can be ignored. Thousands of ants can produce amazing power.
16 years ago, Alipay, which started in Taobao electric business, once proposed a dream: the future world, financial services will not be exclusive to a few people, but a service that every consumer can get whenever and wherever possible.
In October 2014, Alipays parent company was named after ants.
Up to now, ants financial technology business serves 1 billion domestic consumers and 80 million small and micro businesses, and has been highly recognized by the capital market.
One month ago (October 2020), ant group, which planned to be listed on the science and technology innovation board, won the favor of 29 top strategic investors including social security fund, with a total market value of 2.1 trillion yuan, which is expected to become the largest IPO in the world in history.
But the dramatic reversal took place on the eve of listing bell ringing, and constantly breaking through peoples expectations. The senior executives of ant group were interviewed by four ministries and commissions, and the micro loan business, which accounts for nearly half of the profits, is facing new restrictions. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has announced that it will suspend its listing
According to the reporter of Caijing, the duration of ant groups suspension of listing depends on several key factors: when will the formal draft of the new regulations on small loans be determined, and when the rectification plan will be approved? But in any case, under the regulatory spotlight, ant group is experiencing an unprecedented critical moment since its inception.
Here, Chinas financial regulatory authorities rarely make frequent calls for financial innovation.
On November 2, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, also said at the Hong Kong financial technology week that large technology companies have changed the rules of the game, but the protection of trade secrets and consumer privacy is a great challenge.
On the same day, the official wechat of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Interim Measures for the management of online small loan business (Draft for comments) for public opinions (hereinafter referred to as the Interim Measures for online small loan). The small loan business with tight document supervision is one of ant groups main businesses.
On November 6, at the regular policy briefing of the State Council, Liu Fushou, chief lawyer of the CIRC, directly said that he would bring all financial activities into the unified regulatory scope according to the financial attributes of financial technology.
The wind started at the end of Qingping, and the relevant regulatory statements and actions did not suddenly emerge overnight. Before that, the financial regulatory warning faced by ants has appeared.
In September this year, the peoples Bank of China issued the Trial Measures for the supervision and management of financial holding companies (hereinafter referred to as the financial control measures), which pointed out that the financial holding companies that meet the following conditions should be included in the supervision: first, the controlling shareholders and actual controllers are domestic non-financial enterprises, natural persons and recognized legal persons; second, the substantial control of two or more types of financial institutions; and third, the financial holding companies are subject to supervision The total assets or entrusted assets of financial institutions under substantial control reach a certain scale, or financial holding companies need to be established according to the requirements of macro prudential supervision. Ant group holds high gold content licenses such as payment, banking, insurance, fund, small loan, etc., and is bound to face strong financial control supervision.
In response to strong supervision, ant group formally appointed Li Chen, vice president of ant group, as the groups compliance director during the double 11 period, reporting directly to CEO Hu Xiaoming. Industry insiders pointed out that the establishment of such a post, ant group is to show the worlds determination to do a good job in compliance.
Next, ant group will reorganize its business according to the official documents issued by the new regulations on small loans, so it will face a series of adjustments from personnel to business. An industry personage told finance and economics reporter.
Some people in the industry pointed out that in order to meet the regulatory requirements and meet the listing conditions, the possibility of splitting ant groups restructuring business into listed companies also exists. It is not ruled out that the financial services such as payment, small loan and fund sales can be separated.
Although the industry has a lot of speculation about ant groups sudden failure in IPO due to the new regulatory policy on the eve of IPO, many authoritative figures told Caijing that the unprecedented collective voice of Chinas financial regulators is a ringing bell for the game between innovation and supervision in recent years, and has a far-reaching impact on financial technology innovation and regulatory system.
At about 9:00 on November 2, the official wechat of China Securities Regulatory Commission announced: today, the peoples Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange have held regulatory interviews with Ma Yun, the chairman of the board of directors, and Hu Xiaoming, the president of ant group.
At that time, it was less than three days before the listing bell of ant group. Although the employees of ant group feel that it is not right, few people put aside their busy time on the eve of listing to examine what is happening.
Later, Guo Wuping, director of the Consumer Protection Bureau of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued an article in the media, pointing out that Huabei and Jiebai infringed on the rights and interests of consumers.
The night of supervision came. In a few hours, the article four ministries and commissions interviewing senior ants read 100000 + in the official micro blog of the CSRC alone, and more than 10000 people praised it.
Just a week ago (on the evening of October 26), the initial IPO inquiry of ant group was completed. Ma Yun announced at the Bund financial summit that this would be the miracle of the largest listing in the history of mankind.
Ant groups final issuing price of a shares is 68.8 yuan per share. Influenced by the regulatory policy on the evening of the 2nd, ant groups business model changed. Its 2.1 trillion yuan market value ushered in a market dispute on the eve of listing. An executive of a fund company told Caijing on the same day that ant group was facing the problem of business model reconstruction.
On the evening of November 3, a notice issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the Shanghai Stock Exchange) pressed the pause button for all this. Shanghai Stock Exchange informed ant group to suspend its A-share listing plan in Shanghai Stock Exchange. Affected by this, ant groups plan to simultaneously list H shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will also be postponed.
The reason given by the Shanghai Stock Exchange is that recently, the actual controller, chairman and general manager of your company have been jointly supervised and interviewed by relevant departments, and your company has also reported major events such as changes in the regulatory environment of financial technology. This material event may cause your company to fail to meet the requirements of issuance and listing or information disclosure.
There is a general consensus in the industry that the regulatory environment for financial technology has changed, that is, the Interim Measures for online small loans issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on the first day. The new regulations will greatly increase the compliance cost of ant groups micro loan business, and then affect the business profit prospects and the rationality of IPO valuation.
After three months of busy work, many employees of ant group realized the seriousness of the problem. According to the reporter of Finance and economics, on the night of being informed of the suspension of listing, ant group held an emergency meeting at the middle and high levels, aiming to stabilize the morale of the army and unify understanding.
Later, ant group in the official wechat to investors said: for the trouble caused to investors, ant group is very sorry. We will properly handle the follow-up work in accordance with the relevant rules of the two exchanges.
In fact, the advent of regulatory night is not without trace.
On October 24, Ma Yun, the actual controller of ant group, directly criticized financial regulation at the Shanghai Bund financial summit, saying that Basel Accord is like a club for the elderly, which aims to solve the aging and complex problems of the financial system which has operated for decades; China is not a financial systemic problem, but the risk of lack of a healthy financial system; and he reminds regulators that no The airport can be managed in the same way as the railway station, not in the future as it was yesterday.
On October 24, Ma Yun, the controller of ant group, criticized financial regulation at the Shanghai Bund financial summit, calling the Basel Accord like a club for the aged; and reminded regulators that we cant manage the airport by the way of managing railway stations, we cant manage the future by the way of yesterday. Figure / IC
Ma Yuns comments were hot and caused controversy for several days.
You know youre arbitraging, they know youre arbitraging, you know they know youre arbitraging, they know you know they know youre arbitraging, but youre not only arbitraging, you scold them. A melon eating crowd joked in the circle of friends.
A week later, on October 31, the meeting of the financial committee proposed to respect international consensus and rules, strengthen supervision, and fully incorporate financial activities into supervision according to law. Subsequently, the ant group was publicly placed in the regulatory spotlight.
In mid November, a few days after IPO reversals, the working state and rhythm of ant Z space at No. 556 Xixi Road, Xihu District, Hangzhou were as normal as before, and the business was normal. In the evening, people working overtime were still busy in the bright lights.
Passers-by still cant help but look up at this building that has and is yearning for by countless people, although the atmosphere inside the building has changed from excitement half a month ago to a little silent.
No one in the company raised the issue of listing again. The temporary failure of listing is not only a damage to the interests of employees, but also a psychological blow. We all know in our hearts that mentioning can not solve the problem, it will only make people feel frustrated. Close to the ant group of people to the finance and economics reporter frankly, can not underestimate the impact of this incident on the morale of the ant group.
In response to strong supervision, ant group formally appointed Li Chen, vice president of ant group, as the groups compliance director during the double 11 period, reporting directly to CEO Hu Xiaoming. Industry insiders pointed out that the establishment of such a post is to show the worlds determination to do a good job in compliance.
According to the reporter of Caijing, Li Chens actual work has not changed due to the new appointment, because he was originally responsible for the compliance work. However, the establishment of the chief compliance officer means that all business departments within ant group will be more awed by compliance. The above-mentioned people pointed out that the future must be compliance first.
Ants spear of innovation
Looking back on the rapid development history of the past 16 years, ants financial technology innovation began with Taobao.
In fact, cloud knows
Cant escape Taobaos prison
Every second of heartache
Every time I cry, I wake up for a second
Only the heart is begging
Im really tired
There are too many memories
hold one s breath
If you can find you by climbing on the eaves
The grievances of love need not be clarified...
In the view of more industry insiders, the volume of its wind also reflects the deep feelings between Ma Yun and Taobao. In May 2003, Alibaba founded Taobao. Com. As a large online retail and business district in the Asia Pacific region, Taobao has made it possible for thousands of Chinese households to shop at home.
This also sows a seed for ant groups innovation in the field of financial technology. In the same year (2003) autumn, Alipay was quietly born on the industrial chain of Taobaos e-commerce platform business. It is worth noting that the first year of Alipay came out, the China UnionPay came out and helped banks gradually realize the transfer of bank cards.
Alipay, which did not connect with the Bank of China, though it was only a niche business at the time, has formed potential pressure on the traditional four party clearing mode and traditional payment institutions represented by banks, and laid a foreshadow for the subsequent regulatory new rules.
For the relationship between Taobao and Alipay, the ant group introduced in its prospectus, recall that we first set up Alipay, in order to solve the trust problem of transactions, so that strangers can do business even after thousands of miles away.
In the solution of the innovative ideas and technical support of transaction trust, Alipay has been developing all the way. In 2009, Alipay launched Alipay mobile terminal APP five years after its launch. In the following year, it launched fast payment, and launched a two-dimensional code payment product in 2011. At present, the market share of the third party mobile payment is over 50%.
Ge Huayong, the former chairman of China UnionPay, once said that Chinas payment instruments have developed from cash to bank card and then to card free payment in the past 30 years. Every change is an innovation. A senior scholar called the change of payment method since the founding of new China as great change, which was supported and promoted by technology. Payment change is not only due to the rapid renewal of payment form, but also from the promoters behind the payment reform. From the initial bank led evolution, it has gradually evolved into the two largest payment giants with Alipay and WeChat as the harbinger.
In 2011, the central bank issued the first 27 third party payment licences, which Alipay covered. At the same time obtaining the license, the central bank meant that its payment business should be strictly regulated by financial supervision. Besides, the sweep code payment, which supported the share of its larger mobile payment, had experienced many stages of development, such as the initial stage, the regulatory halt, the continuous exploration and the restart.
Industry insiders said that Internet payment more or less has the direct connection bank mode, directly across the clearing this link. After cutting to the Internet connection, the payment institution and the bank are completely disconnected, and the clearing is done through the online connection, just as the bank does the clearing through the central bank system. Inter bank clearing has become centralized, and relevant business supervision can be controlled.
Some regulators once told Caijing that the trade-offs in the face of financial innovation are: on the one hand, for the financial innovation of Internet technology giants, regulators do not want to be labeled as hindering innovation, so they are once more inclusive; on the other hand, efficiency and risk are like twin brothers. At different stages, supervision needs to grasp the main contradictions in a specific period.
In the process of innovation, ant not only has a game with financial supervision, but also often confronts with traditional financial institutions, especially commercial banks.
Because at that time, compared with the huge scale of banking business, Alipay was still niche, but its convenience and safety soon won the favor of consumers. Alipay has also become a fashion for young people.
The scale of the rapid expansion of innovative products such as Alipay and Yu Ebao deeply touched the cheese of banks. Five years later, under financial supervision, financial technology companies returned to the source of science and technology, and commercial banks began to set up financial technology companies and launched a technology revitalization.
However, with traditional commercial banks and other payment institutions competing to follow suit, the scale of yuebao has declined year after year. According to the data of the third quarter report of 2020 released by Tianhong Yuebao money market fund on October 28, the scale of yuebao at the end of the third quarter was 1.19 trillion yuan, much smaller than that in the same period in 2018 and 2017.
In the field of financial management, at the end of 2016, the default of Qiaoxing bond triggered the early warning of financial innovation risk. As an important part of participation, zhaocaibao, a financial management platform of ant financial services, sold the split private equity bond products (qiaoxingbond) to public investors, breaking the regulatory provisions on the number of non-public offerings and the lower limit of investment, leading to the privatization of private placement. The overseas Chinese debt incident directly points out that the platform should not go beyond the intermediary function to re process and design products.
In March of the next year (2017), ant financial services (formerly known as ant financial) announced that it would only do tech (Technology) in the future, support financial institutions to do well in fin (Finance), from fintech to techfin, and in the future, it would only be a sales platform to provide technical and big data support for financial institutions.
At the same time, Jing also said frankly, it is undeniable that in the previous tech, we wanted to access some financial product manufacturing. However, ant financials strong point is technology, which can complement each other by cooperating with financial enterprises. Therefore, we should step back and return to the position of tech, and fin has less things.
Compared with Ma Yuns high-profile remarks in 2008, ant financial services attitude towards financial institutions at this time is softer and more modest.
Some people in the industry also pointed out that in the development process of ants, there may be some regulatory and market disputes, but we also see the value and benefits that ants bring to the whole financial industry. The growth of ant groups business does not absolutely have a huge impact on the financial industry, but also forms a growth of dislocation with the bank.
The shield of regulatory risk control
With the release of the new regulations on small loans on the Internet, the controversy between ant group and financial supervision has become a consensus.
The Interim Measures for small loans on the Internet was actually soliciting opinions before. This time, it was published in a hurry. It was really aimed at the ants. Several insiders close to the regulation told Caijing that the restrictions on leverage in the new regulations are the biggest blow to ant group, and they are also ridiculed by the industry as hitting the snake to seven inches.
Previously, as joint loans were not included in the scope of leverage, the leverage ratio was not calculated in the statement through asset-backed securities (ABS). As a result, the registered capital of ant group is too small.
According to the prospectus of ant group, in the first half of 2020, ant groups micro loan technology platform contributed to a total credit balance of 2.15 trillion yuan. Among them, the consumer credit balance represented by Huabei and jiebei (the main bodies are Chongqing ant small and micro loan Co., Ltd. and Chongqing ant Shangcheng small loan Co., Ltd.) amounts to 1.73 trillion yuan. It is worth noting that in the credit balance promoted by the micro loan technology platform, the proportion of actual loans or asset securitization realized by financial institutions is about 98%.
For this reason, in the view of most people in the financial industry, it is a correct choice for the regulatory authorities to suspend the listing of ant group, because if the risks hidden in its business are not revealed at this time, the interests of investors will not be effectively protected.
Chinas economy may continue to boom for a long time, but it is impossible to avoid a time when there is a correction and setback. On the surface, once the ABS asset package is sold, the buyer assumes the risk, which has nothing to do with ants, and the risk seems very small. Before 2007, the U.S. banking industry actually thought so. But the whole financial system is connected, and the losses and holes have to be filled by someone, ants or someone else. In the end, it will spread to the whole banking industry, which is the so-called systemic crisis. Some senior people in the financial industry have stressed that risks will never be eliminated but transferred. Ant group can only transfer the risk, absolutely can not eliminate the risk, can hide and delay the risk at most, but if it erupts at the same time, it may lead to terrible systemic risk. And its very likely that the common people will pay for it.
In the research report led by him, through the comparison of samples, it is found that the large-scale science and technology credit has a higher degree of adaptability with small-scale, short-term credit history, small and medium-sized enterprises. For this reason, Huang Yiping believes that big technology credit can find a feasible path for Inclusive Finance. In loans for small and medium-sized enterprises, large-scale technology risk control is more reliable than traditional bank risk control.
However, with regard to the effectiveness of large technology credit risk control after changes in the financial cycle and financial market environment, Huang Yiping said that this should also be a common concern and concern of regulatory authorities, and we need further research and analysis to confirm. But even if the financial cycle changes, the comparative advantage of this big data risk control model relative to the traditional model should still be maintained, because of the advantages of data and model.
Another concern of supervision is that when the risk is excessively concentrated on the actual controller of private enterprises, what kind of impact will be brought if the risk breaks out. Authorities close to the central bank have expressed similar concerns, ant group, after all, is a private enterprise, but it serves so many users. If there is a big problem, the risk is actually concentrated on one person (Ma Yun), and the impact or risk is completely uncontrollable.
In addition to the above problems, the ant group monopoly and invasion of personal privacy, which are frequently mentioned by market participants in recent years, are also regarded as two major concerns of supervision.
On November 2, Guo Wuping, director of the consumer rights and Interests Protection Bureau of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), wrote an article, pointing out that when the regulatory authorities investigate and punish licensed financial institutions, they should also carry out extended investigations into relevant financial technology companies. In view of oligopoly, we should organize and carry out consumer questionnaire survey on whether there is abuse of market dominant position by relevant companies. We should strengthen the law enforcement and justice of anti-monopoly and anti unfair competition, prevent the winners from taking all and big shops bullying customers, and infringe on consumers right of independent choice and fair trade.
Li Qing, a researcher at the China Economic System Reform Research Association, and others believe that the abuse of market dominance in the anti-monopoly law includes two elements, one of which is indispensable. One is that the enterprise has a dominant position in the relevant market, which needs to be determined by many factors such as whether the enterprise can determine the transaction conditions (such as price and quantity), or it can be inferred by market share. Second, enterprises have abused this dominant position, such as unfair high price and low price, refusal to trade, designated transaction, tied sale and so on.
Li Qing and others believe that the data obtained from them show that in 2019, Alipay and WeChat paid no market share in mobile phone payment in China, and the market share of an operator in the relevant market reached 1/2.
On November 10, the State Administration of market supervision and Administration issued the anti-monopoly guidelines in the field of platform economy (Draft for comments), which put forward the important principles of creating a fair competition order, aiming to prevent and stop monopoly behaviors in the field of platform economy. On the day of the release of the draft, the stock price of large technology platform companies fell sharply.
Ji Shaofeng, an expert on small and micro credit, believes that large-scale Internet enterprises, relying on their technological advantages to master a large amount of data and supplemented by the external characteristics of Internet technology, are likely to form a dominant market position, resulting in monopoly and unfair competition. Using the data, information and customer resources obtained from the business ecosystem of Ali and Alipay, the ant group can quickly gain financial competitive advantage. However, when using the big data of personal consumers to conduct credit evaluation, a lot of data will involve personal privacy, such as payment, consumption and electricity trading data. Ali, sesame score and ant group can not be clear. Clearly define their respective boundaries and data application scope.
In early 2018, the Alipay circle was in the Alipay annual bill. Some participants found a line of special words: I agree with sesame service agreement, and acquiescence consent. For a while, sesame credit infringed on personal privacy and fermented, and then apologized and ended with Alipay.
In fact, financial regulators have been releasing strong regulatory signals in the early stage.
In September 2019, fan Yifei, vice president of the peoples Bank of China, made a very serious speech at the 9th China payment and clearing forum. He said: for some time, some Internet enterprises have used their institutions to cross nest payment business with other financial businesses such as credit, forming a business closed loop. The business processing process is difficult to be penetrated and supervised, and it is very easy to cause risk spread across the market. At the same time, he stressed that such institutions did not fully understand and grasp the risk nature and business boundary of financial business, and hoped that they actively cooperate with supervision, effectively rectify the credit business beyond the scope of business, and eliminate the potential risks of expanding cross financial business through payment.
It is worth noting that, although the financial regulatory authorities are worried about financial technology products such as joint loans, licensed financial institutions are very willing to cooperate with head financial technology companies such as ant group. Before that, an industry person once told Caijing: the amount of loans made by cooperating with ants is very popular, and many banks still cant get it.
Huabei, Jiebai and Baitiao have been successfully operated for seven or eight years, and the non-performing rate has been well controlled. This is a high-quality asset verified by the market. A head financial technology company told Caijing that small and medium-sized banks just lack good assets, so in the process of joint loans, head financial technology companies are relatively stronger.
The person further pointed out: small and medium-sized banks are weak in risk control, especially in dealing with online business. In fact, it is a problem whether these small and medium-sized banks have the ability to do online risk control, which should be borne by the joint loan according to the proportion of capital contribution.
Ants current business, most of which are not even joint loans, is a complete loan assistance mode, that is to say, it does not pay its own money at all. Its role in the business is to provide customer flow, provide risk control, provide post loan services and so on. In essence, everything is provided and controlled by ant, and the only thing is that the money is not provided by itself. A senior risk controller also told Caijing that (ANT) its role here is to charge service fee , not to earn interest margin, that is to say, pure off balance sheet business, which is also the root cause of the fact that it is not subject to leverage constraints to a certain extent. If such businesses are not unified into the regulatory perspective, given that the real risk is still completely controlled by it, it is still completely responsible for it Its not responsible, so its more dangerous.
In fact, in the IPO prospectus, ant group did not disclose the details of the joint loan. In addition to the overall scale of consumer credit and the overall contribution proportion of ant group, more detailed information such as the specific partners, the proportion of joint loans, and the proportion of joint loans still remain a mystery.
According to the reporter of Caijing, many experts and scholars have other opinions on the current practice of supervision. There is no problem in controlling leverage, but what is the reasonable proportion of investment? Is there a timetable for eliminating regulatory inequality? These are all worth discussing.
Clearing up the supervision of financial technology
Since March 2017, ant group announced that it would only do tech (Technology) in the future and support financial institutions to do well in fin (Finance), it has positioned its role in financial science and technology as a consignment platform to provide technical and big data support for financial institutions.
Based on the above technology platform positioning mode, ant group completed a balance loan of 2.15 trillion yuan (mainly relying on the joint loan and loan assistance mode). But obviously, ant groups positioning of this technology platform failed to evade the sword of financial regulation.
According to the financial attributes of fintech, all financial activities should be brought into the scope of unified supervision. Liu Fushou, chief lawyer of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, once again clarified the concept of financial technology and regulatory rules in his speech at the State Councils regular policy briefing earlier this month.
From the regulatory interview to the release of new regulations on small loans, and then to the suspension of listing, the problems faced by ant group and financial supervision no longer stay at the level of game, and both financial technology and financial supervision have been reset.
In the previous IPO, ant groups price per share was 68.8 yuan, with a static P / E ratio of nearly 100 times, which was equivalent to the valuation of technology stocks, and its technology attribute was recognized by the capital market. Nevertheless, questions such as lending companies in the guise of science and technology, making money in finance and taking the valuation of technology have been accompanied by ants. After a series of conferences on financial technology, such as the financial technology committee, the financial group will have a series of changes.
On October 31, less than a week after Ma Yuns shelling financial regulation on the Bund, the special meeting of the financial commission proposed that financial activities should be fully regulated in accordance with the law and that the same businesses and entities should be treated equally. Afterwards, the content of the meeting was considered to be the regulatory setting for the follow-up of financial technology and financial innovation.
Subsequently, Guo Wuping, director of the Consumer Protection Bureau of the CBRC, wrote an article: financial technology is a technology driven financial innovation, its foothold is finance, and its essence is financial services. The article further emphasizes that the core of products such as Huabei, Baitiao and willful payment is not fundamentally different from the credit cards issued by banks, while the products such as jiebei, jintiao and micro loan are not fundamentally different from the micro loans provided by banks.
Some senior people in the financial industry believe that the core of the new small loan regulation is actually to require ant group to increase the proportion of its own capital contribution. In this way, if there is a risk, the ant itself will bear a lot of risk. In this way, ants can carry out business more carefully and reduce the possible losses of financial institutions.
The direct impact of this on the ant group is to reduce the efficiency of the use of funds. With the increase of loan scale, the capital requirement is higher, and the capital profit margin is maintained at a certain level, which will not change with the scale enlargement, and the profit making effect will be greatly reduced.
Affected by the Interim Measures for small loans on the Internet, it is not limited to the ant group. In the view of some industry insiders, the Interim Measures for small online loans are not so much for ant group, but for bigtech company and its joint loan business similar to ant group.
Generally speaking, financial technology companies that carry out joint lending business through Internet small loan licenses are divided into head, waist and tail. The head is represented by ant group, while the waist is represented by Du Xiaoman, Jingdong digital technology, 360 digital technology and didi finance. The tail is mainly some P2P transformed companies. The person in charge of a financial technology company carrying out the joint loan business told Caijing that the new rules will mainly bring a fatal blow to many bottom players, while for the head company, it mainly limits its development scale.
With regard to the compliance and supervision of technology enterprises in the name of various financial services, Che Ning, Deputy Secretary General of Beijing Network Law Research Association, believes that the current discussions are either focused on the relationship between regulation, arbitrage and innovation, or on the basis of valuation. The real problem is not only to supervise the technology enterprises in the financial field, but also to comprehensively evaluate the impact of the current background, determine its real and appropriate functional positioning, and then build a governance framework for the future.
There is no doubt that in the face of the increasingly complex international and domestic development environment, encouraging scientific and technological innovation and promoting the core position of the real economy in Chinas overall modernization drive will continue to be upheld. Based on this, Che Ning pointed out that in this sense, the financial technology surname Jin or technology is not the main aspect of the contradiction. We need to see that the positioning of financial capital is a means rather than an end, and the key is to effectively prevent and control risks on the basis of the realization of economic and social functions, in place without dislocation, which also requires regulatory innovation.
The most fundamental is to explore the use of new regulatory methods represented by flexible supervision and behavioral supervision; further, strengthen the coordination and convergence of the top-level design and law enforcement; more importantly, enrich the business ecology in the fields of finance, science and technology and the real economy, and consolidate the long-term foundation for the development of the industry. Che Ning believes that, for example, alternative public infrastructure can be built in the fields of payment and credit, which can fundamentally weaken the monopoly advantage of platform enterprises, and then explore a new way of regulation that is different from the rats tail, hurting the skin and returning to the public.
Ji Shaofeng believes that the public opinion caused by the ant incident goes far beyond the scope of Finance and supervision. From this, it extends to the questioning of its commercial monopoly, the moral trial of seizing high interest rates, and the dissatisfaction of the public on Chinas inclusive financial system and small and micro financial services of banks. The deeper thinking also touches on the publics opinion on the allocation and supervision of financial resources of state-owned banks and private finance The status of private enterprises and unfair treatment in the market.
Ma Yun argued that the bank did not mention the pain points of Chinas finance, because no one is an encyclopedia and there is no omnipotent God. The most fundamental problem in Chinas finance is not pawnshop thought, not Basel agreement, but the uneven allocation of resources brought about by the dual system and the credit failure faced by private enterprises and small and micro enterprises. Ji Shaofeng said bluntly that Chinas financial technology companies should not be subversive and revolutionary to Chinas financial industry, but should be co-workers and menders. It is competition and cooperation rather than confrontation. This is determined by the economic structure of Chinas ownership system and has nothing to do with technology. Through the innovation of financial technology, private financial capital promotes Chinas banking industry to be more open and equal, to better serve industries and micro businesses. Financial technology companies and private financial capital use the flexibility of the mechanism and the advantages of being close to the market. They should join hands with banks in the system to make progress, and at the same time, they will gradually increase the share and credibility of private capital in the financial market This is the real choice.
IPO prospect and valuation adjustment
Financial technology supervision changes, countless people sigh: if ant group wants to go public as it is, it is not easy!
Some people in the industry pointed out that there is a possibility that ant group will restructure its business and split its listing. It is not ruled out that the financial services such as payment, small loan and fund sales will be separated. However, this involves very complex business structure and equity changes, which can not be completed overnight. Even if there is no spin off in the end, there may be new changes in the original businesses, and the business scale and risk control system will be different.
According to the original plan, ant was priced at 68.8 yuan per share. The total market value of ant group was 2.1 trillion yuan, more than double the previous round of financing valuation. A + H shares raised the highest or more than 260 billion yuan, setting a new record for the largest IPO in the world. The unprecedented enthusiasm of investors also shows the recognition of this valuation.
Zhang Xiaorong, President of the Institute of deep science and technology, told Caijing that ant groups 2.15 trillion yuan loan mainly relies on the joint loan and loan assistance mode. If the proportion of investment specified in the new regulations on small online loans should not be less than 30%, this means that the capital of ant group will be supplemented to hundreds of billion yuan according to the new regulations on small online loans. This number will put a lot of pressure on the ants, which will not only greatly reduce their loan space, but also their profit margins.
According to the reporter of finance and economics, in view of the fact that the growth rate of ant groups performance is almost certain to decline, many people in the industry believe that the valuation of ant group will inevitably be lowered, but the difference lies in the reduction range.
Ji Shaofeng, a senior small and micro credit personage, said bluntly: as half of ants profits come from highly leveraged credit business, the new rules will directly reduce ants credit related profit of 10 billion yuan to about 4 billion yuan, corresponding to the valuation of 2 trillion yuan, the direct valuation will drop below 1.5 trillion yuan.
However, more views believe that the formal draft of the new regulations on small online loans has not yet been published, and the impact of changes in regulatory conditions on ant performance remains to be observed.
Another valuation factor mentioned is ant groups own positioning.
In the secondary market, there is a huge difference in PE multiple between financial stocks and technology stocks. The PE multiples of the former are usually around 10 times, while those of the latter are usually higher than 60 times. The PE multiples of Jingdong, pinduoduo and Baidu companies are far more than 60 times. Therefore, according to which positioning valuation has a huge impact on the market value.
A researcher who keeps following ant group told Caijing: ant group used to be based on the valuation of technology companies. In the future (valuation), the attributes of Finance and technology will be considered, especially if it may change from light capital to heavy capital business.
Before this ant group valuation, there are not many domestic companies for comparison. Therefore, institutions in the valuation analysis more use the comparison with the same type of international enterprises.
Ant group, a brokerage Research Institute, had previously given a valuation of nearly 1.8 trillion yuan. Corresponding to its profit forecast in 2021, it is about 36 times PE. The specific valuation logic is as follows: in terms of digital payment and business services, it benchmarked with PayPal, an overseas payment giant; in terms of digital financial technology micro loan technology platform business, it referred to consumer finance companies such as lending club and 360 finance; the financial technology platform benchmarked Jiaxin wealth management and Oriental Wealth, one of the largest online securities brokers in the United States; and the insurance technology platform referred to risk management in the United States And the insurance brokerage company.
The three core standards of ant groups valuation in the future are: the core technical capability, the close combination of technology and finance, and the development expectation of future profit growth. I think it still needs to see whether ants business is greatly affected after financial supervision. Wang Pengbo, a senior financial analyst in the financial industry, said, if the valuation is based on financial stocks, the ants financial logic is not taken into account. It has developed financial business on the basis of science and technology.
In addition to valuation, another issue that attracts public attention is when ants can restart IPO?
On November 17, at the third innovation economy forum, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that whether ant group has a timetable for listing depends on how the government reorganizes the regulatory framework for financial technology enterprises, and how companies respond to the regulatory environment.
A fund executive told Caijing that the time may be more than a year. If an enterprise can not be listed because of major issues, it will take at least six months before it can report new materials, so I think the deadline should be one year.
However, as time goes on, people are more pessimistic about the IPO timetable of ant group. The expectations of an investment banker who did not want to be named have been extended to more than five years. In the future, when ants start listing again, the performance period required in the prospectus may need to be all under the new regulatory policy. Listing needs to disclose the performance information of three-year period. Considering the time required by the previous policies and the time required to complete the listing process, it will be at least five years later for ants to complete the listing again.
He explained to Caijing: of course, the estimated restart time is based on maintaining the existing business structure. If we divest the network micro loan business which is greatly affected by the new regulatory policies, it may shorten the time to restart listing.
However, some people in the industry have expressed different views. Even if the network micro loan business is separated and listed separately, the speed of listing may not be accelerated. If we want to split up, we need to withdraw the application for re declaration after adjustment, involving major asset restructuring, major changes in statements during the reporting period, which need to be adjusted, and so on, which will take longer. Wang Jiyue said.
Previously, Chongqing ant Consumer Finance Co., Ltd., which is 50% owned by ant group, was approved for construction in September this year. According to the reporter of Caijing, in addition to setting up a chief compliance officer, ant groups businesses and departments related to micro loans are facing a more difficult situation. On the one hand, they are waiting for the new regulations to be formally implemented, and on the other hand, they are also trying to find ways to adjust them.
Although there are different opinions on the specific timetable, many people agree that the release time of the new online small loan regulation will be the key factor affecting the IPO restart time of ant group. What ants can do at present is to rectify and wait.
On November 30, 20:00-22:00, Changsheng time u00b7 2020 property market closing meeting, Yao Changsheng, deputy editor in chief of Netease media and senior real estate personage, gave a live interpretation of the course. The price of the course was 1999 yuan / person, and the top 200 applicants were entitled to a special price of 799 yuan / person. If you have any questions, please add the Houchang village fairy wechat (money163888) for consultation.
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