Liu He: the domestic big cycle is not self closed and self-sufficient

category:Finance
 Liu He: the domestic big cycle is not self closed and self-sufficient


Todays world is experiencing a great change that has not happened in a century. Chinas development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, but both opportunities and challenges have new development and changes. Many of the problems we have encountered are medium and long-term, many of which have not been experienced before. We need to deepen our understanding and effectively deal with them from a strategic perspective. In a sense, resolving challenges is opportunity. The proposal put forward to speed up the construction of new development pattern is a major strategic decision made by the Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee under Comrade Xi Jinpings core in accordance with Chinas new development stage, new historical tasks and new environmental conditions. It is another important theoretical achievement of Xi Jinpings socialist economic thoughts with Chinese characteristics in the new era.

First, this is an active choice to adapt to the changes in the stage of economic development in China. Economic development is a spiral rising process, and it is also phased. Different stages correspond to different demand structure, industrial structure, technical system and related ways, which require the development mode to keep pace with the times. In a considerable period of time after the reform and opening up, the per capita income level of our country is relatively low. We give full play to the low cost advantages of labor force and other factors, seize the important opportunities of economic globalization, make full use of the opportunities of international division of labor, form a two ends outside development model of market and resources, participate in the international economic cycle, and promote the rapid economic growth, and the peoples life from insufficient food and clothing to a well-off society in an all-round way. After a long period of efforts, Chinas per capita GDP exceeds 10000 US dollars, and the demand structure and production function have changed greatly. The phenomenon of the internal circulation of the production system is not smooth and the supply and demand are disjointed. The problem of neck sticking is prominent and the complexity of structure transformation increases. To solve this contradiction, we need to change our development to rely on innovation driven, improve the quality and level of supply and promote high-quality development. This is the gateway to the economic development of a big country. We should actively adapt to changes, strive to overcome difficulties and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern.

Second, it is a strategic measure to deal with the complex international environmental changes. Since the new century, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation have accelerated, the pattern of World Trade and industrial division of labor has undergone major adjustments, and the balance of international power has shown a trend of change. After the international financial crisis in 2008, the global market contracted, the world economy fell into a sustained downturn, and the momentum of the international economic cycle weakened. In recent years, populism is prevailing in the major western countries, trade protectionism is on the rise, and economic globalization has encountered a counter current. The epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia has been widespread and far-reaching. The trend of reverse globalization is more obvious. The global industrial chain and supply chain are facing significant impact and risk is increasing. In the face of new contradictions and challenges brought about by the changes of external environment, we must adjust the path of economic development according to the situation. While trying to break through the international cycle, we should further smooth the domestic big cycle, enhance the autonomy and sustainability of economic development, enhance resilience, and maintain the stable and healthy development of Chinas economy.

Third, this is the inherent requirement of giving full play to the advantages of Chinas super large economies. The important feature of circular economy is that it can drive domestic and international markets, and it must provide internal and external support. After more than 40 years of development since the reform and opening up, Chinas economy has grown rapidly, and the conditions and foundation of the domestic big cycle are increasingly improved. From the perspective of demand potential, China has formed the worlds largest and most potential market with a population of 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups. As China moves into the ranks of high-income countries, the huge domestic market continues to expand. In terms of supply capacity, Chinas savings rate is still high, with the worlds most complete and largest industrial system and complete supporting capacity, 130 million market players and more than 170 million talents with higher education or various professional skills, and R & D capacity has been continuously improved. From the perspective of both supply and demand, we have many conditions to realize the internal circulation and promote the internal and external dual circulation. We must make good use of the advantages of large countries economy in depth and breadth to give full play to the scale effect and agglomeration effect. The market is the most scarce resource in the world. By building a new development pattern and expanding domestic demand, we can release huge and lasting momentum and promote the steady recovery and growth of the global economy.

The guidance of economic development strategy is an important guarantee for the long-term stable and healthy development of Chinas economy. Since the reform and opening up, we have complied with the trend of economic globalization, implemented the export-oriented development strategy, and made great achievements in economic development. In the face of the two major shocks of the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis, we have implemented the strategy of expanding domestic demand, effectively dealt with external risks, and promoted the transformation of economic development to domestic demand led. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, based on the development and changes of domestic and foreign situations, the Party Central Committee has made a timely judgment that Chinas economic development has entered the new normal, and put forward major strategic ideas to promote the supply side structural reform. It has promoted and deepened the supply side structural reform in accordance with the eight character policy of three deletions, one reduction and one subsidy and consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smooth flow, which has effectively improved the relationship between supply and demand. Facing the major changes in the global political and economic environment and adapting to the new characteristics of Chinas development stages, the CPC Central Committee accurately studies and judges the general situation, and puts forward the strategy of building a new development pattern based on the current situation and focusing on the long-term. This is not only the progressive deepening of supply side structural reform, but also the integration and upgrading of Chinas previous development strategy, which has great practical and far-reaching historical significance.

2u3001 Accurately grasp the scientific connotation of building a new development pattern

The economic and social development during the 14th five year plan period should take promoting high-quality development as the theme, deepen the supply side structural reform as the main line, and reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, so as to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. The key to building a new development pattern lies in the realization of economic circulation and smooth industrial connection. The fundamental requirement is to enhance the innovation and relevance of the supply system, solve various neck and bottleneck problems, and smooth the national economic cycle. To achieve this, we must deepen reform, expand opening up, promote scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading. In order to achieve a high level of integrity of the national economic system as the goal, we should highlight the key points, grasp the main contradictions, strive to break through the blocking points, link up production, distribution, circulation and consumption, and realize the dynamic balance of supply and demand.

To understand the connotation of the new development pattern and guide practice scientifically, we need to grasp several important relations.

From the perspective of the relationship between supply and demand, we should adhere to the main line of deepening supply side structural reform. At present and for a period to come, the main contradiction faced by Chinas economic operation is still on the supply side, the supply structure can not adapt to the change of demand structure, and the varieties and quality of products and services are difficult to meet the multi-level and diversified market demand. We must continue to deepen the supply side structural reform, improve the supply systems ability to meet domestic demand, and lead and create new demand with innovation driven and high-quality supply. In the process of adhering to the supply side structural reform as the main line, we should attach great importance to the demand side management, adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, and always combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening the supply side structural reform.

From the perspective of the relationship between the domestic big cycle and the domestic and international dual cycle, the domestic cycle is the foundation and the two are unity. The international market is an extension of the domestic market, and the domestic large cycle provides a solid foundation for the domestic and international dual cycle. Giving full play to Chinas super large-scale market advantages will provide more broad market opportunities for all countries in the world. Relying on the domestic big cycle, China will attract global commodity and resource elements, and create Chinas new international cooperation and competitive advantage. The domestic big cycle is not self-contained and self-sufficient, nor is it a small cycle of various regions. Whats more, it is impossible to do everything on its own and give up international division of labor and cooperation. We should adhere to the dual cycle of opening and cooperation, strengthen open cooperation, and interact more closely with the world economy, so as to improve the efficiency and level of the domestic big cycle. It can be said that to promote the dual cycle, we must adhere to the implementation of a wider range, wider areas and deeper level of opening up.

From the perspective of the relationship between deepening reform and promoting development, we must comprehensively deepen reform to build a new development pattern. The construction of a new development pattern is a development problem, but it is essentially a reform issue. We must use reform thinking and reform methods to form a dynamic market subject, establish an effective incentive mechanism, create an institutional environment to encourage innovation, remove the system, concept and interest fetters that hinder the smooth flow of domestic large circulation and domestic and international circulation, and break the institutional and institutional barriers that hinder the market-oriented allocation of production factors and the circulation of Commodity services, so as to form an efficient and standardized system A unified domestic market with fair competition and full opening will form a high standard market-oriented, legalized and international business environment, reduce the transaction costs of the whole society, build a high-level socialist market economic system, and realize the great development of social productivity.

uff081uff09 Promoting scientific and technological innovation to play a key role in smooth circulation. Speeding up the self-reliance and self-improvement of science and technology is the key to smooth the domestic circulation and shape Chinas active position in the international big cycle. We should strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological strength, carry forward the spirit of scientists, encourage bold exploration and reasonable questioning, strengthen basic research and pay attention to original innovation. We should adhere to the problem orientation, face major issues of national economic and social development, and strengthen applied research. It is necessary to strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, concentrate on key core technologies, forge long supply chain boards and make up for short ones. We should give full play to Chinas market advantages, promote the industrialization and large-scale application of new technologies, develop advanced and applicable technologies, and realize the development of technologies along the path from available to easy to use. Innovation driven ultimately depends on talents and education. We should fully stimulate the innovative vitality of talents, cultivate, introduce and make good use of talents in an all-round way, create more world-class scientific and technological leading talents and innovation teams, and cultivate young scientific and technological talents reserve forces with international competitiveness. We should build a high-quality education system, promote the whole society to increase human capital investment, strengthen the training of basic research talents, and strengthen the cultivation of innovative, applied and skilled talents. It is necessary to strengthen international scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation, and promote the upgrading of scientific and technological capabilities under the open conditions.

uff082uff09 Promote supply, create and lead demand, and realize benign interaction between supply and demand. To smooth the circulation of the national economy, efforts should be made to optimize the supply structure, improve the quality of supply, unswervingly build a manufacturing power, a quality power, a network power and a digital China, give priority to the transformation of traditional industries, develop strategic emerging industries, and accelerate the development of modern service industries. The vitality of micro market main body is in the core position in optimizing the supply system. We should protect property rights equally according to law, provide a good environment for entrepreneurs to capture new needs, develop new technologies, develop new products, and create new models, so as to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. We should speed up the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system and improve the policy support system for expanding domestic demand. We should strengthen the basic role of consumption in economic development, comprehensively promote consumption, enhance traditional consumption, cultivate new consumption and develop service consumption. We should give full play to the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure, expand the investment space, optimize the investment structure, promote the equipment renewal and technological transformation of enterprises, and promote the construction of a number of major projects with strong foundation, increased functions and long-term benefits. The real estate industry affects investment and consumption, and is related to peoples livelihood and development. We should adhere to the position that the house is for living, not for speculation, adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, implement policies according to the city, improve the long-term rental housing policy, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

uff083uff09 We will promote finance to better serve the real economy and improve the modern circulation system. Finance is the blood of real economy. We should adhere to the direction of serving the real economy, carry out structural adjustment of the financial system, vigorously increase the proportion of direct financing, reform and optimize policy based finance, improve the policies of financial support for innovation, give full play to the pivotal role of capital market in promoting the high-level circulation of science and technology, capital and the real economy, and improve the level of financial science and technology. Circulation is an important basis for smooth economic circulation. It is necessary to build a modern logistics system, improve the comprehensive transportation channel, comprehensive transportation hub and logistics network. It is necessary to implement the construction of high standard market system, improve the operation mechanism of factor market, strengthen the construction of social credit system and settlement system, and reduce institutional transaction costs.

uff084uff09 Promote new urbanization and coordinated development of urban and rural areas. China is in the period of rapid development of urbanization, which not only creates huge demand, but also improves effective supply. We should give full play to the leading role of central cities and urban agglomerations, implement major regional strategies, build modern metropolitan areas, and form a number of new growth poles. Urban and rural regional economic cycle is an important aspect of the domestic big cycle. We should promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side, ensure the safety of grain and other important agricultural products, and firmly support the chassis of economic development. We should implement the strategy of Rural Revitalization in an all-round way, strengthen the use of industry to supplement agriculture and the city to lead the countryside, and release the needs of rural farmers. We should promote the equal exchange and two-way flow of urban and rural elements, and enhance the vitality of agricultural and rural development. It is necessary to promote the three spatial patterns of urbanized areas, main agricultural product producing areas and ecological functional areas to give full play to their comparative advantages and provide superior products. We should improve the mechanism of regional strategic planning and market integration, optimize regional division of labor, deepen regional cooperation, and better promote the common development of developed and underdeveloped regions, the eastern, central, Western and northeast regions.

uff086uff09 A higher level of integration into the global economy will be promoted. We should further expand market access, create a fairer market environment and introduce foreign capital at a higher level. We should accelerate the innovation and development of trade, improve the quality of exports, expand imports, and promote the basic balance of current account and balance of payments. We will promote the one belt, one road, high quality development, achieve high-quality introduction and go out at a high level. We should promote the construction of an open world economy, promote the construction of a community of shared future for mankind, form a more close and stable global economic cycle system, and promote all countries to share the opportunities and achievements of the in-depth development of globalization.

The construction of a new development pattern is a systematic and deep-seated change related to the overall situation. At the historical juncture of the two centenary goals, we should face the future, take the initiative to implement new development strategies, unswervingly deepen reform, expand opening up, promote innovation, firmly grasp the strategic opportunities provided by the unprecedented great changes in a century, speed up the construction of a new development pattern, comprehensively promote the construction of a socialist modern country, and march towards the second centenary goal u3002