Bank + military industry for institutional warehouse adding
Recently, many public private equity funds aim at the new method of Bank + military industry.
Since last Monday, Shenwan bank and the national defense and military industry index have gained more than 5% and 4% respectively among the 28 Shenyi industry indexes, according to choice data. The measurement data of Everbright metalworking also showed that the position of public offering partial equity funds increased slightly last week. Although the proportion of financial sector allocation changed little, the proportion of defense and military industry and some cyclical sectors increased.
Shenwanwan indexs rise ranking since last Monday
Cathay Pacific Fund believes that last week, the rapid rotation between plates has reflected the current institutions on the pro cyclical varieties and growth plate of these two directions of great divergence. In the case of market turnover temperature and upward, and can not reach the level of July, the pro cyclical plate will continue to be strong, or the growth plate will counter attack. In the future, we may need to seek joint forces in these two directions.
From the perspective of segmentation, Liu Ankun, manager of RONGTONG reverse Strategy Fund, said that the next stop of the diffusion of Pro cyclical style may focus on the big finance in the later cycle, while in the growth style, military industry stocks are worthy of attention.
Liu said that, combined with the consensus recognition of the current market for cycle style, and the low valuation of financial sector and low institutional position, the next stage is expected to become the focus of attention of cycle style. In addition, if the valuation of financial sector as a post cycle is restored to a certain level, it may mean that the cycle style has been deduced to the end, and the market will choose a new direction; in the growth style, the current attention of military industry stocks is quite high, and there is short-term support from military orders. The performance is expected to exceed expectations in the first quarter of next year. In the medium and long term, the 14th five year plan is expected to be more than expected for an All of them attach great importance to the market, which has two to three times the expected space for the future growth of military aircraft, missiles, UAVs, etc., so it is suggested to pay attention to it.
Spear and shield?
In their view, bank stocks are the current white horse blue chip industry with a higher margin of safety, while military stocks are the industry with high quality growth in the next few years. The combination of the two can be described as the strongest shield and the strongest spear.
The strongest shield: banking sector
Among the above five stock selection preferences of PanYao assets, undervalued bank stocks have reached the extreme. At present, the valuation level of A-share bank shares is at the historic bottom area. At the same time, the safety margin of the banking sector also comes from the high dividend. If the fluctuation of stock price is ignored, the dividend has high investment value.
Banks are also in line with their second preference for their chosen industry: growth. In the short term, the logic of A-share bank shares growth lies in the macroeconomic recovery and the relief of profit pressure. At the same time, banks also meet their preference for low industry requirements, low attention and low allocation, and institutional positions are close to the bottom of history.
Industry insiders generally believe that once the fundamental reversal logic of bank shares is gradually recognized by the market, institutions can increase their positions and open up the upward space of stock prices.
From the perspective of market trading, bank stocks have both relative returns and absolute returns in the fourth quarter. The logic behind this is that funds tend to increase their positions in undervalued products because they lock in returns at the end of the year. However, the upward trend of the banking sector this year is not only driven by configuration, but also by the smooth underlying logic. Therefore, the market will be more sustainable. They have gradually increased the position allocation of the banking sector in the third quarter.
The strongest spear: military industry plate
PanYao asset believes that the biggest bright spot of the military industry plate lies in the high growth of certainty. In the past 13th Five Year Plan period, most of them were in the development stage of weapons and equipment. In the next 14 Five Year Plan period, they believe that the orders of the military industry will be in an accelerated growth period.
In their view, there are many high growth segments in the military industry, such as the missile industry chain, aviation industry chain, composite materials and other sub sectors. In the next three to five years, the industry is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 30% to 50%, which is better than most industries in the current domestic macro environment. At the same time, the high barrier of military industry makes the industry structure stable, and the industry growth probability will directly reflect on the performance of relevant listed companies.
Of course, the static valuation of the military industry is not cheap, but people in the industry still believe that there are investment opportunities with structural differentiation. Dong Jizhou of Taixin Fund pointed out that the stage of even rain and dew in the military industry plate has passed, and has gradually entered the stage of value growth. The correlation between the underlying stock price trend and fundamentals is increasingly high, and bottom-up stock selection is the key to obtain excess returns.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607