Recently, many public private equity funds aim at the new method of Bank + military industry.
Since last Monday, Shenwan bank and the national defense and military industry index have gained more than 5% and 4% respectively among the 28 Shenyi industry indexes, according to choice data. The measurement data of Everbright metalworking also showed that the position of public offering partial equity funds increased slightly last week. Although the proportion of financial sector allocation changed little, the proportion of defense and military industry and some cyclical sectors increased.
Cathay Pacific Fund believes that last week, the rapid rotation between plates has reflected the current institutions on the pro cyclical varieties and growth plate of these two directions of great divergence. In the case of market turnover temperature and upward, and can not reach the level of July, the pro cyclical plate will continue to be strong, or the growth plate will counter attack. In the future, we may need to seek joint forces in these two directions.
Liu Ankun said that combined with the current market consensus on the cycle style, and the low valuation of the financial sector and low institutional positions, the next stage is expected to become the focus of attention on the cycle style. In addition, if the valuation of the financial sector as the later cycle also recovers to a certain level, it may mean that the cycle style has been deduced to the end, and the market will choose a new direction; in the growth style, the attention of military industry stocks is very high at present, and the short-term military orders are supported, and the performance is expected to significantly exceed expectations in the first quarter of next year. In the medium and long term, the fourteenth five year plan has great impact on security All attach great importance to it. The market has two to three times the expected growth space for military aircraft, missiles, UAVs, etc., so it is recommended to pay attention to it.
Spear and shield?
From a deeper point of view of stock selection, this portfolio also has its inherent investment logic. PanYao asset said that from the perspective of buying stocks, the industries and companies they like have the characteristics of undervalued, high growth, low allocation, low attention and catalysis, and banks and military industry conform to their stock selection logic.
In their view, bank stocks are the current white horse blue chip industry with a higher margin of safety, while military stocks are the industry with high quality growth in the next few years. The combination of the two can be described as the strongest shield and the strongest spear.
The strongest shield: banking sector
Among the above five stock selection preferences of PanYao assets, undervalued bank stocks have reached the extreme. At present, the valuation level of A-share bank shares is at the historic bottom area. At the same time, the safety margin of the banking sector also comes from the high dividend. If the fluctuation of stock price is ignored, the dividend has high investment value.
Banks are also in line with their second preference for their chosen industry: growth. In the short term, the logic of A-share bank shares growth lies in the macroeconomic recovery and the relief of profit pressure. At the same time, banks also meet their preference for low industry requirements, low attention and low allocation, and institutional positions are close to the bottom of history.
Industry insiders generally believe that once the fundamental reversal logic of bank shares is gradually recognized by the market, institutions can increase their positions and open up the upward space of stock prices.
The strongest spear: military industry plate
PanYao asset believes that the biggest bright spot of the military industry plate lies in the high growth of certainty. In the past 13th Five Year Plan period, most of them were in the development stage of weapons and equipment. In the next 14 Five Year Plan period, they believe that the orders of the military industry will be in an accelerated growth period.
In their view, there are many high growth segments in the military industry, such as the missile industry chain, aviation industry chain, composite materials and other sub sectors. In the next three to five years, the industry is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 30% to 50%, which is better than most industries in the current domestic macro environment. At the same time, the high barrier of military industry makes the industry structure stable, and the industry growth probability will directly reflect on the performance of relevant listed companies.
In addition, from the perspective of market transactions, the military industrys spring market rose faster in most years. Although the historical rule will not remain unchanged, with the orders of the 14th five year plan entering the large volume stage, there is a greater probability that the spring agitation of the military industry will come ahead of time this year.
Of course, the static valuation of the military industry is not cheap, but people in the industry still believe that there are investment opportunities with structural differentiation. Dong Jizhou of Taixin Fund pointed out that the stage of even rain and dew in the military industry plate has passed, and has gradually entered the stage of value growth. The correlation between the underlying stock price trend and fundamentals is increasingly high, and bottom-up stock selection is the key to obtain excess returns.
Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607