The idea of delayed retirement scheme emerges: who will be the first batch of delayed retirees

 The idea of delayed retirement scheme emerges: who will be the first batch of delayed retirees

In September this year, the Ministry of human resources and social security, in response to a letter from netizens on the policy of delaying retirement, said that it was seriously studying relevant policies and measures in accordance with the deployment and requirements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, in order to meet the needs of population aging and life expectancy extension.

The 21st century economic report found that compared with the previous statements, there may be new changes in the thinking of delaying retirement policy. The statement on delaying retirement in the recently published learning guidance hundred questions does not appear the previously hotly debated word of differentiated treatment. Instead, it means that in accordance with the ideas of small steps and slow walking, flexible implementation, and strengthening incentives, we will adhere to the combination of unified provisions and voluntary choice, and make small adjustments step by step, so as to reduce social vibration and strive for more support.

No mention of differentiated treatment

As early as June 2012, delaying retirement was put on the agenda. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in November 2013 further clarified the reform direction of gradual delayed retirement.

However, there is no specific plan on how to gradually delay retirement. In 2016, Yin Weimin, then Minister of the Ministry of human resources and social security, publicly said that the plan for delaying retirement that is being formulated will adhere to three principles: one is to walk slowly and gradually. The second is to treat them separately and implement them step by step; the third is to give advance notice and make public announcement.

Since the retirement age of men and women in Chinas retirement system is not the same, men retire at 60, female employees retire at 50, and female cadres at 55. Therefore, the mainstream view at that time suggested that men and women should be treated differently, and that the policy of delaying retirement should be implemented.

When explaining the principle of differentiated treatment and step-by-step implementation, Li Zhong, then spokesman of the Ministry of human resources and social security, also said, it is not necessary to implement delayed retirement for all social groups at the same time. We will choose the group with relatively low retirement age and gradually implement it from this part of the group.

The 21st century economic report found that the expression of delaying retirement in the recently published 100 questions on learning guidance did not mention the word differentiated treatment. Instead, it said that it would adhere to the idea of small steps and slow walking, flexible implementation and strengthening incentive, adhere to the combination of unified provisions and voluntary choice, and make small and gradual adjustments.

In response, Chu Fuling said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that walking slowly in small steps still follows the original idea, that is, only a few months are delayed a year, and the target age is gradually reached through a long historical period.

Flexible implementation is a matching policy with strengthening incentive. Chu Fuling further explained that the policy will give a minimum and maximum retirement age range for everyone to make a choice, and then reflect the orientation of paying more and paying more in pension calculation and distribution. For example, the retirement age range in the United States is 62-70 years old, and the normal retirement age is 66 years old. People who retire at the normal retirement age can get full pension; those who retire below or above the normal retirement age receive reduced or excess pension.

No matter what the speed is, the difference between men and women is not reflected in the difference between men and women. For example, women can delay retirement a little faster than men, and then gradually narrow the gap between mens and womens retirement age. This will not only be relatively fair, but also virtually reduce the resistance to reform, and avoid the fragmentation of the system. Chu Fuling told the 21st century economic report.

According to media reports, at present, there are mainly two kinds of deferred retirement schemes recognized in the industry: the first is to delay the retirement age of men and women simultaneously; the second is to unify the retirement ages of men and women, and then delay them together.

Judging from the current policy orientation, the first option may be more consistent. Qi Chuanjun, Deputy Secretary General of the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that if we first unify the retirement age of men and women and then delay it together, womens retirement age will be raised by 3-5 years in a few years. Although it is a step in place, it is not in line with the policy goal of gradually delaying retirement.

Since there is no mention of differentiated treatment , it is necessary for men and women to implement it simultaneously, and gradually reduce the gap between men and womens retirement age by controlling the rhythm. For example, Qi Chuanjun points out that, for example, women can extend four months a year and men can extend three months a year. It is equivalent to delaying the retirement age of women by one year for three years and delaying the retirement age for men and women by one year for four years. After about several decades, the retirement age of men and women will be gradually delayed to the target age, such as 65.

According to Chu Fuling, according to data from more than 160 countries and regions around the world, about two-thirds of men and women have the same retirement age and about one-third have different retirement ages. Generally speaking, the retirement age of men is higher than that of women.

The impact on young peoples employment is limited

If the old people delay retirement, will they occupy the jobs of young people? Its hard to find a job at 35, not to mention delaying retirement to 65 Every time the voice of delaying retirement comes out, the voice about the difficulty of young and old people to find a job fills the Internet.

In the middle of this year, due to the centralized retirement of a group of post-60 employees in the public institution where Zhang Qian (not her real name) worked, the proportion of new recruits in her unit increased by five times compared with previous years, reaching the highest ever.

According to statistics, from 2011 to 2019, 4.5 million-9.45 million people in China have entered the ranks of over 65 years old people each year. How does delayed retirement affect the employment market?

For Zhang Qian, a unit with a fixed establishment, delaying retirement will have a certain impact on the employment of young people, but the impact is also limited. Qi Chuanjun told the 21st century economic report that because we are implementing a gradual policy of delaying retirement, which is equivalent to delaying retirement for only a few months a year, the rate of job vacancies will not significantly slow down. In terms of total employment, the declining speed of the working age population is fast, which corresponds to the slow and long process of gradual delay in retirement, forming a certain hedging effect.

In 2019, Chinas endowment insurance dependency ratio (number of employees / retirees) is 2.65:1, that is, close to three people supporting one person; if the policy of delaying retirement is not implemented, the book learning guidance hundred questions reveals that the dependency ratio of endowment insurance will drop to 1.03:1 by 2050, almost one person supporting one person. The burden pressure of young people, especially the on-the-job workers, can be imagined.

Yang Hualei and others from the school of public management of Zhongnan University of economics and law have made a calculation result that under the current pension system with defined payment, the policy of postponing the statutory retirement age does not occupy the current and future welfare of the working population, but improves the welfare of the working population.

The mechanism is that delaying retirement increases the per capita income, thus increasing the expenditure on consumption, saving, raising children and supporting the elderly, and improving the welfare of the working population. At the same time, delaying retirement reduces the burden of support and support of each labor force, increases the share of personal consumption and savings, and improves the welfare of the labor force.

Can the gap be filled?

As we all know, the aging population is the main factor affecting social security expenditure. The book learning guidance hundred questions predicts that under the current system framework, the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees across the country will not be able to offset the current payment by 2029, and the accumulated balance will be exhausted around 2036.

Therefore, delaying the timely introduction of retirement policy is also considered to be a good medicine to solve the problem of pension income and expenditure. According to the research estimate of calculation and management of Chinas endowment insurance fund, the pension fund can increase by 4 billion yuan and reduce expenditure by 16 billion yuan every year after the retirement age is delayed, which will reduce the fund gap by 20 billion yuan.

However, the experts interviewed believe that delaying retirement can delay the time window for the arrival of endowment insurance fund gap and alleviate the scale of endowment insurance fund gap, but it can not fundamentally solve the problem of endowment insurance fund gap.

According to Liu Wans calculation, it is assumed that the normal age of male (female) pension will be raised from 60 to 65 in 2049 at the rhythm of delaying three months every year from 2025. The study finds that delaying retirement will gain nearly 25% of the decline space of the system support ratio in 2050, and the peak period of the pressure on the elderly will be greatly delayed.

According to the 21st century economic report, from 1998 to 2017, the total amount of subsidies from all levels of finance to the endowment insurance fund for urban employees reached 4.11 trillion yuan, almost equivalent to the accumulated balance of 4.39 trillion yuan in the basic old-age insurance system for urban employees in the same period, equivalent to more than 90% of the pension balance from financial subsidies.

How to maintain the financial sustainability of the endowment insurance system? Liu Wan suggested that: first, we should gradually delay the normal retirement age, postpone the huge pressure of the imbalance of pension income and expenditure, and exchange time for space; second, stabilize the budget of annual fiscal transfer payment to pension, and reduce the pressure of future financial support; third, accelerate the pace of pension investment and operation, do a good job in state-owned assets allocation, and constantly expand the fund scale; fourth, we should appropriately control the pension Fifth, we should build a multi-level pension insurance system, expand the coverage of the second pillar such as enterprise annuity and occupational annuity, and promote the construction of the third pillar such as personal savings pension insurance and commercial endowment insurance We should not rely on the basic endowment insurance system. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF4368