The idea of delayed retirement scheme emerges: who will be the first batch of delayed retirees

 The idea of delayed retirement scheme emerges: who will be the first batch of delayed retirees

This means that in the next five years, the deferred retirement scheme is expected to be implemented. Who would be the first to delay retirement?

In September this year, the Ministry of human resources and social security, in response to a letter from netizens on the policy of delaying retirement, said that it was seriously studying relevant policies and measures in accordance with the deployment and requirements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, in order to meet the needs of population aging and life expectancy extension.

The 21st century economic report found that compared with the previous statements, there may be new changes in the thinking of delaying retirement policy. The statement on delaying retirement in the recently published learning guidance hundred questions does not appear the previously hotly debated word of differentiated treatment. Instead, it means that in accordance with the ideas of small steps and slow walking, flexible implementation, and strengthening incentives, we will adhere to the combination of unified provisions and voluntary choice, and make small adjustments step by step, so as to reduce social vibration and strive for more support.

Chu Fuling, a professor at the school of insurance at the Central University of Finance and economics and director of the China Social Security Research Center, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that the previously hotly debated idea of women take the lead in delaying retirement until men and women retire together may have changed, and it is more likely that men and women will implement the postponement of retirement at the same time.

As early as June 2012, delaying retirement was put on the agenda. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in November 2013 further clarified the reform direction of gradual delayed retirement.

However, there is no specific plan on how to gradually delay retirement. In 2016, Yin Weimin, then Minister of the Ministry of human resources and social security, publicly said that the plan for delaying retirement that is being formulated will adhere to three principles: one is to walk slowly and gradually. The second is to treat them separately and implement them step by step; the third is to give advance notice and make public announcement.

Since the retirement age of men and women in Chinas retirement system is not the same, men retire at 60, female employees retire at 50, and female cadres at 55. Therefore, the mainstream view at that time suggested that men and women should be treated differently, and that the policy of delaying retirement should be implemented.

The 21st century economic report found that the expression of delaying retirement in the recently published 100 questions on learning guidance did not mention the word differentiated treatment. Instead, it said that it would adhere to the idea of small steps and slow walking, flexible implementation and strengthening incentive, adhere to the combination of unified provisions and voluntary choice, and make small and gradual adjustments.

In response, Chu Fuling said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that walking slowly in small steps still follows the original idea, that is, only a few months are delayed a year, and the target age is gradually reached through a long historical period.

No matter what the speed is, the difference between men and women is not reflected in the difference between men and women. For example, women can delay retirement a little faster than men, and then gradually narrow the gap between mens and womens retirement age. This will not only be relatively fair, but also virtually reduce the resistance to reform, and avoid the fragmentation of the system. Chu Fuling told the 21st century economic report.

Judging from the current policy orientation, the first option may be more consistent. Qi Chuanjun, Deputy Secretary General of the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that if we first unify the retirement age of men and women and then delay it together, womens retirement age will be raised by 3-5 years in a few years. Although it is a step in place, it is not in line with the policy goal of gradually delaying retirement.

Since there is no mention of differentiated treatment , it is necessary for men and women to implement it simultaneously, and gradually reduce the gap between men and womens retirement age by controlling the rhythm. For example, Qi Chuanjun points out that, for example, women can extend four months a year and men can extend three months a year. It is equivalent to delaying the retirement age of women by one year for three years and delaying the retirement age for men and women by one year for four years. After about several decades, the retirement age of men and women will be gradually delayed to the target age, such as 65.

In the future, it is necessary to keep the policy of male and female professors in the Southwest University of economics and law for a long time. With the implementation of the policy of encouraging childbearing and the deepening of aging in China, women still face great pressure in coordinating the balance between work and family. Therefore, it is not mature to implement the same retirement age as men.

Womens early pension can be regarded as a kind of allowance and compensation for womens unpaid family work. Liu Wan told the 21st century economic news reporter that only when the public welfare undertakings replacing the family care model are fully developed, the social care service system for the old and the young is improved, and more and more women can get rid of the family work and the traditional division of labor mode, and the retirement of men and women at the same age will be realized.

According to Chu Fuling, according to data from more than 160 countries and regions around the world, about two-thirds of men and women have the same retirement age and about one-third have different retirement ages. Generally speaking, the retirement age of men is higher than that of women.

The impact on young peoples employment is limited

If the old people delay retirement, will they occupy the jobs of young people? Its hard to find a job at 35, not to mention delaying retirement to 65 Every time the voice of delaying retirement comes out, the voice about the difficulty of young and old people to find a job fills the Internet.

According to statistics, from 2011 to 2019, 4.5 million-9.45 million people in China have entered the ranks of over 65 years old people each year. How does delayed retirement affect the employment market?

For Zhang Qian, a unit with a fixed establishment, delaying retirement will have a certain impact on the employment of young people, but the impact is also limited. Qi Chuanjun told the 21st century economic report that because we are implementing a gradual policy of delaying retirement, which is equivalent to delaying retirement for only a few months a year, the rate of job vacancies will not significantly slow down. In terms of total employment, the declining speed of the working age population is fast, which corresponds to the slow and long process of gradual delay in retirement, forming a certain hedging effect.

More importantly, economic development will create new job demands. The data shows that in the past seven years, the number of new jobs in Chinas cities and towns has been maintained at more than 13 million every year. Therefore, the total number of jobs is not fixed, but dynamic growth, there is no problem of who occupies the jobs, and the suitable positions for the elderly and young people are not simply linear substitution relationship. Qi Chuanjun said.

In 2019, Chinas endowment insurance dependency ratio (number of employees / retirees) is 2.65:1, that is, close to three people supporting one person; if the policy of delaying retirement is not implemented, the book learning guidance hundred questions reveals that the dependency ratio of endowment insurance will drop to 1.03:1 by 2050, almost one person supporting one person. The burden pressure of young people, especially the on-the-job workers, can be imagined.

The mechanism is that delaying retirement increases the per capita income, thus increasing the expenditure on consumption, saving, raising children and supporting the elderly, and improving the welfare of the working population. At the same time, delaying retirement reduces the burden of support and support of each labor force, increases the share of personal consumption and savings, and improves the welfare of the labor force.

With the rapid development of Chinas economy and society and the acceleration of population aging, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above in China has rapidly increased from 15.5% in 2014 to 18.1% in 2019. Last year, there were 4.39 million new elderly people aged 60 and above, while the labor force population aged 16-59 decreased by 890000.

Therefore, delaying the timely introduction of retirement policy is also considered to be a good medicine to solve the problem of pension income and expenditure. According to the research estimate of calculation and management of Chinas endowment insurance fund, the pension fund can increase by 4 billion yuan and reduce expenditure by 16 billion yuan every year after the retirement age is delayed, which will reduce the fund gap by 20 billion yuan.

According to Liu Wans calculation, it is assumed that the normal age of male (female) pension will be raised from 60 to 65 in 2049 at the rhythm of delaying three months every year from 2025. The study finds that delaying retirement will gain nearly 25% of the decline space of the system support ratio in 2050, and the peak period of the pressure on the elderly will be greatly delayed.

Especially in the short and medium term, the policy effect is strong, and the annual pension gap will be reduced by 40% - 70% before 2050. However, after 2050, the long-term effect of delaying retirement will begin to weaken significantly, indicating that it is difficult to avoid a huge gap in future pension payments, Liu Wan told the 21st century economic report.

According to the Ministry of human resources and social security, by the end of 2019, the accumulated balance of basic endowment insurance fund for urban employees will reach 5462.3 billion yuan. However, behind the trillion pension stock is the result of continuous blood transfusion by all levels of finance.

According to the 21st century economic report, from 1998 to 2017, the total amount of subsidies from all levels of finance to the endowment insurance fund for urban employees reached 4.11 trillion yuan, almost equivalent to the accumulated balance of 4.39 trillion yuan in the basic old-age insurance system for urban employees in the same period, equivalent to more than 90% of the pension balance from financial subsidies.

How to maintain the financial sustainability of the endowment insurance system? Liu Wan suggested that: first, we should gradually delay the normal retirement age, postpone the huge pressure of the imbalance of pension income and expenditure, and exchange time for space; second, stabilize the budget of annual fiscal transfer payment to pension, and reduce the pressure of future financial support; third, accelerate the pace of pension investment and operation, do a good job in state-owned assets allocation, and constantly expand the fund scale; fourth, we should appropriately control the pension Fifth, we should build a multi-level pension insurance system, expand the coverage of the second pillar such as enterprise annuity and occupational annuity, and promote the construction of the third pillar such as personal savings pension insurance and commercial endowment insurance We should not rely on the basic endowment insurance system.