From the individual stock point of view, as the domestic and even global rare earth leading stocks, northern rare earth in November has accumulated a rise of 36%. On November 24, northern rare earth became the favorite stock of the main capital, and the net capital inflow ranked first with 880 million yuan.
Behind the frequent changes of rare earth stocks is the Carnival in the spot market. A few days ago, a number of rare earth varieties rose rapidly.
In light rare earth, praseodymium and neodymium are the most attractive. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, as of November 24, praseodymium and neodymium oxide reported 387500 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 16% in November, and praseodymium neodymium alloy at 502500 yuan / ton, with an accumulative increase of more than 20% in November, both of which have reached new highs in nearly three years.
Among the medium and heavy rare earth elements, terbium, dysprosium and other oxides are active. Among them, the price of terbium oxide on November 24 was 6025 yuan / kg, which increased by 24% in November, reaching a new high in more than eight years.
CITIC Securities believes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and NdFeB consumption is expected to increase. With the slowing down of the epidemic situation, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and the demand may continue to warm up, while the contraction trend of upstream supply remains unchanged, and rare earth prices are expected to continue to rise.
Why are rare earth spot prices rising?
In terms of supply, the growth rate of rare earth supply side is slow in recent years, with imported resources accounting for about 30% of Chinas rare earth supply. With the standardization of rare earth market, there are more separation capacity idle in the industry, which leads to the slowdown of rare earth supply growth. It is estimated that the total supply of rare earth will be about 350000 tons by 2025, but there will be a gap in the supply of rare earth in the face of the rapid growth of demand side.
New energy vehicles, wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries support the demand for rare earth permanent magnets. After the epidemic situation improved, downstream orders continued to increase in the fourth quarter, supporting the price rise of rare earth materials.
Business agency analysts said that at present, Myanmars customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import supply of medium and heavy rare earth, and the recent positive downstream demand has supported the continuous rise in the market price of medium and heavy rare earth.
In addition, with the official entry into force of the export control law of the peoples Republic of China on December 1, the market expects that Chinas rare earth export may further shrink, and the global supply of rare earth may further shrink, which is expected to push the price of rare earth to continue to rise.
Strategic value of rare earth will continue to increase
Recently, Jinli permanent magnet said in an investigation conducted by the organization that the company has formulated strategic reserve strategy for rare earth raw materials, especially heavy rare earth raw materials. According to the price trend of upstream rare earth raw materials and the companys orders in hand, the company will timely adjust the inventory strategy and inventory structure of rare earth raw materials, and purchase rare earth raw materials as safety inventory, so as to ensure the rare earth raw materials required by the companys production.
According to the third quarter report of Jinli permanent magnet in 2020, as of September 30, 2020, the ending balance of the companys inventory of raw materials was 307 million yuan, an increase of 35.41% over the end of the previous year.
Huahong technology recently said that the companys comprehensive utilization business of rare earth resources is mainly to recycle and reuse waste NdFeB permanent magnetic materials, and produce high-purity rare earth oxides through oxidation, roasting, acid dissolution, separation, purification and other professional processes. With the wide application of rare earth permanent magnet materials in new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, medical devices and other fields, the supply of rare earth raw materials is in short supply, and the price of rare earth raw materials has also increased. Huahong technology said, the company intends to cooperate with southern rare earth to build a comprehensive utilization project with an annual treatment of 60000 tons of magnetic material waste, and the project is progressing orderly. CITIC Securities said that under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to increase. In recent years, the United States, the European Union, Japan and other major economies have successively issued policies to include rare earth in national strategic resource reserves. As an indispensable key raw material for high-tech development, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to increase. Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4368
CITIC Securities said that under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to increase. In recent years, the United States, the European Union, Japan and other major economies have successively issued policies to include rare earth in national strategic resource reserves. As an indispensable key raw material for high-tech development, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to increase.