Can the valuation of blind box No.1 stock soar 19 times after transferring to the board

 Can the valuation of blind box No.1 stock soar 19 times after transferring to the board

Recently, documents from the Hong Kong stock exchange show that bubble Mart has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and disclosed the post hearing information set. Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities (29.530, - 0.37, - 1.24%) were co sponsors.

A year and a half later, bubble Mart plans to officially land in Hong Kong stock market. According to media reports, its IPO value is the highest or more than 6 billion US dollars (about 39.4 billion yuan), and its value has soared by 1870%, becoming one of the best board stocks.

When delisting from the new third board, the market value was 2 billion

According to the public information, bubble mart is a fashion retail company integrating design, procurement and sales.

However, since 2015, bubble Mart began to switch to IP operation and introduced blind box. Unexpectedly, blind box has become the key point of its transformation.

In April 2016, bubble mart and Hong Kong Kenny swork Company Limited successfully reached a strategic cooperation on the brand image of Molly, becoming an important global strategic partner of the image. Two months later, bubble mart tmall flagship store was launched, which also marks the opening of its online business.

(photo source / bubble Mart stock offer book)

After winning Molly, bubble marts performance began to grow rapidly.

From 2017 to 2019, the revenue of bubble Mart increased from 158 million yuan to 1.683 billion yuan, with the growth rate of 225% and 227% respectively in recent two years. At the same time, its performance also turned losses into profits. In 2017, it recorded a net profit of 1.56 million yuan, and in 2019, it realized a net profit of 451 million yuan, an increase of 224 times compared with that in 2017.

Secondary market performance, listed in the new third board, bubble Mart trading is not active. On April 2, 2019, bubble Mart was delisted from the new third board. Before delisting, the stock price of bubble Mart was 17.32 yuan per share, corresponding to a total market value of 2 billion yuan.

Valuation soared by 1870% after board transfer

33 year old founder or worth 10 billion

In fact, at the time of delisting from the new third board, bubble Mart has revealed that its directors hope to gain more access to the international and market through the Hong Kong stock exchange.

Back in October 2010, Wang Ning, who was born in 1987, went to Beijing to start a business, and established bubble mart with reference to the loft model of Japans well-known grocery retail stores.

Less than a year after its establishment, bubble Mart has obtained several million yuan of angel investment from Mai Gang, an entrepreneurial workshop. Since then, they have successfully completed round a and round B respectively, led by mochishan venture capital and jinhuifeng investment.

(source / wind)

In April this year, bubble Mart completed the pre IPO round of financing, led by Huaxing new economic fund and zhengxingu capital, with an amount of more than 100 million US dollars.

Ten years after its establishment, bubble mart will be listed in Hong Kong. According to media reports, its last round of financing has reached 2.5 billion US dollars (about 16.4 billion yuan). The valuation is 720% higher than when it was delisted from the new third board a year ago.

Bubble marts IPO in Hong Kong is expected to raise $200 million to $300 million, with Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities as co sponsors.

According to the market estimate, according to the valuation expectation given by bubble mart to investors before IPO, the market value of bubble mart is expected to be between 4 billion and 5 billion US dollars after IPO, with the highest value or more than 6 billion US dollars, which is at most double the valuation of $2.5 billion in the previous round of financing.

If the market estimates the highest valuation of $6 billion (about 39.4 billion yuan), bubble Mart from the new third board to Hong Kong stocks, the highest value or soared 1870%, becoming one of the most bullish board stocks.

Can the blind box first share sustain the market value of 10 billion yuan?

If the successful landing of the Hong Kong stock market, bubble mart will also become the first blind box.

From the development of bubble mart, the success of its business is inseparable from the popularity of blind box.

According to the prospectus, bubble Mart operates a total of 85 IP, including 12 self owned IP, 22 exclusive IP and 51 non exclusive IP. From 2017 to 2019, the sales volume of products jointly developed by self owned IP, exclusive IP and non exclusive IP totaled 45.864 million yuan, 340.149 million yuan and 1384.209 million yuan, accounting for 29%, 66% and 82.1% respectively.

(photo source / bubble Mart stock offer book)

From 2017 to 2019, bubble Mart sold 968800, 6567300 and 24450300 blind boxes respectively. In the first half of 2020, 13.514 million blind boxes were sold.

(photo source / bubble Mart stock offer book)

At present, offline self operated retail stores are the main sales channel of bubble mart, and the proportion of online channel sales is increasing. In 2019, the proportion of its online channel revenue to total revenue has risen to 32%. In the past double 11, the sales of bubble mart tmall flagship store reached 142 million yuan, becoming the first member of 100 million yuan club in the category of big toys.

(photo source / bubble Mart stock offer book)

It is worth noting that the gross profit rate of bubble Mart shows a rapid upward trend, and its gross profit rate will reach 64.8% in 2019, which is 17% higher than that in 2017.

(photo source / bubble Mart stock offer book)

Blind box + IP gold absorption combination makes bubble marts performance show explosive growth. In 2019, its net profit will reach 451 million yuan, which is 286 times higher than that in 2017.

(photo source / bubble Mart stock offer book)

However, the business model of blind box is highly reproducible. Where are the barriers of bubble Mart?

Shenwan Hongyuan research report believes that bubble Mart has established an integrated platform covering the entire IP operation value chain by virtue of its strong IP exploration and operation promotion capabilities, so as to improve its IP business value and enhance its brand awareness and liquidity.

However, some people in the industry said that the lack of independent IP development capability of bubble mart is the core factor restricting the development of bubble Mart. Once the more popular exclusive or non exclusive IP license agreement expires, it will face the risk of being unable to continue to obtain authorization.

Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of China Fund News_ NBJ9607