Sure enough, it fell! A shares buy drunk market suddenly brake? Thats what the agency says

category:Finance
 Sure enough, it fell! A shares buy drunk market suddenly brake? Thats what the agency says


Affected by the news of reducing holdings, on November 24, liquor stocks showed a significant decline. Among them, the liquor stock index fell sharply at the beginning of trading, falling more than 4% at one time, and the market value evaporated more than 180 billion. Within the plate, the hot shares of highland barley wine close to the limit, Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye and other leading stocks fell more than 1%. At the same time, the liquor index in the early trading also fell more than 2%, and more than 22 billion capital fled by midday.

It is worth noting that some liquor stocks are still strong. In the morning of November 24, the golden Maple wine industry opened again, during which the price limit was once set. According to the companys latest announcement, said that the production and operation situation is normal, there is no significant matter affecting the abnormal fluctuation of the companys stock trading price.

Despite the continuous reduction of capital holdings, it is difficult to hide the preference of funds. From the recent northward capital and hot money trends, alcohol stocks are still the target of institutional capital positions. From the perspective of the industry, some small liquor companies should be paid attention to, and it is suggested to seize the opportunity of plate rotation, and the third and fourth line liquor market will last until the first half of next year.

Buy drunk market suddenly brake

Liquor stocks fell 180 billion

For many days in a row drunk market a shares, suddenly began to sober up.

In the morning of November 24, liquor stocks showed a significant decline. In the morning of the same day, the liquor index opened low and went low, with a rapid decline of more than 4% and the market value of liquor fell more than 180 billion yuan. By midday, the index fell more than 1%.

From the perspective of the plate, the hot stocks of highland barley wine once approached the limit, with the decline narrowed by 7%; Jinhui liquor fell by more than 6%, and Yilite and Kouzijiao fell by more than 3%.

And yesterday due to the expected surge in channel sales and market attention leading shares Maotai also appeared obvious adjustment. On the morning of the same day, Maotai in Guizhou fell more than 1% and closed at 1771.04 yuan at noon.

In the liquor sector, 24 component stocks were floating green. In a short half day, more than 22.5 billion funds fled the liquor sector, and the fund holding was reduced dramatically.

At the same time, the liquor stock index is also difficult to cover the decline. In the morning of the same day, the liquor index also showed a significant decline. The intraday index once fell more than 2%, and the market value evaporated more than 100 billion yuan. By midday, the index fell 0.7%.

Large shareholders and large private placement successively reduced their holdings

270 billion leading companies are not afraid of rising

In fact, the drunk market suddenly brake, and a number of successive capital reduction action.

On the evening of November 23, Yanghe company announced that Jiangsu blue alliance Co., Ltd. would reduce its shares of Yanghe shares by block trading from November 18 to November 20, 2020, accounting for 1.50% of the total share capital of Yanghe. Query block trading data, from November 18 to November 20, Yanghe shares in the three days of block trading shares was just 22.6267 million shares, which is the number of shares reduced by blue alliance, with a total transaction amount of 3.755 billion yuan.

According to the public information, blue alliance was the main holding platform for the management and backbone of Yanghe company when it was reformed. Many of the main shareholders behind the blue alliance were the old leaders of Yanghe shares, including the former chairman of Yanghe Group and the chairman of Yanghe shares.

Data show that since this year, the share price of Yanghe shares has risen by more than 60%, and since October 12, the share price has risen by more than 40%. After the stock price is high, the driving force of institutions to reduce holdings and cash out will also be strengthened.

Coincidentally, Yanjing Beer, the leader of beer stocks sought after by institutions, also issued a notice of reducing its holdings yesterday evening.

On the evening of November 22, Qingdao beer also announced that from November 16 to 17, a physical company of Fosun International Co., Ltd. transferred 502000 H shares of the company through centralized bidding. Trading records show that since September 1, 2020, Fosun International Co., Ltd. has reduced 36.502 million shares through block trading or call auction for six times, with a transaction amount of about HK $2.487 billion, equivalent to RMB 2.105 billion.

However, these reduced holdings of alcohol stocks did not suffer too much negative effects. On the morning of November 24, Yanghe shares still rose more than 3% in the morning, Yanjing beer was red, and Qingdao Beers share price fell slightly.

Differentiation of some liquor stocks

Northward, hot money has a heavy position

It is worth noting that todays liquor stock market has significantly adjusted, but there are still some strong performance stocks.

In the morning of November 24, Jinfeng liquor industry opened again, during which the price limit was once impacted. And this is also the unit for four consecutive trading days brush limit board position. By midday, Jinfeng liquor industry rose more than 5%.

It is not difficult to see from the dragon and tiger list data that this kind of popular small market value liquor stocks are becoming hot money chasing targets. According to the after hours data on November 23, the top five purchases of the day totaled 118.704 million yuan, accounting for 19.43% of the total transaction value of the day. A number of well-known hot money business departments participated in these stocks, including Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. headquarters, CICC fortune Wuhan Xingye Road Securities Business Department, etc.

At the same time, on November 23, it bought more than 1.8 billion yuan of Guizhou Maotai and more than 60 million yuan of Yanghe shares.

Securities companies are still optimistic about wine market

The prospect of small wine enterprises is still optimistic

Despite the obvious adjustment of liquor stocks, the prospects of liquor enterprises are still optimistic in the eyes of many securities and business opportunities organizations.

Founder Securities pointed out that there are two core reasons for the continuous rise of liquor and even rice wine stocks in the third and fourth tier in recent years: first, liquor has continued to rise to a new high since this year, with high market attention. Affected by the epidemic situation in the first and second quarters, the performance of financial statements has declined, and the third quarter has resumed elastic growth, especially for the third and fourth tier liquor companies. Looking forward to the half year performance vacuum period, it will be again in the first and second quarters of next year Secondly, the market style tends to seek for the plate with high certainty. Liquors fundamentals and stock price performance have been recognized and sought after, and the valuation tolerance has been improved.

Founder Securities pointed out that in the past, the market had always regarded liquor as a cyclical industry. Now, after time of refining, it has finally accepted the consumption attribute of liquor, and the overall valuation has moved up. It will be normal in the future. The industry trend will continue to rise in the future at least five years. The performance of high-end and secondary high-end will continue to improve, and liquor will be given a new valuation system. It is suggested that we should grasp the cyclical rising market of high-end liquor. The performance of high-end liquor is stable, with high certainty. The trend of secondary high-end price is becoming more and more clear. We can see the growth of more than three years.

According to the food and beverage team of Societe Generale Securities, in the past liquor investment cycle, the plate always rose in the order of price from high to low. Recently, the increase of the third and fourth line mark was higher, and some investors in the market worried that the plate market was coming to an end. We dont think the market will stop here. In the first half of next year, the third and fourth line will still have a good performance.

Tianfeng Securities said that the recent liquor plate volatility is significant, mainly due to the influence of funds and emotions, and the underlying fundamental support factor is the strong possibility of improvement on a month on month basis in the next three quarters. In the long run, the overall valuation center of liquor plate is expected to stabilize from 20-30 to 30-40 median. However, CICC had made a contrary judgment on the valuation of small wine companies before, and clearly gave a cautious bearish view. At present, the speculation of some small wine enterprises has deviated from the fundamentals or have a large overdraft on the growth of performance, which is driven by funds. We think it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact brought by the fall of short-term sentiment. CICC also pointed out that from the perspective of fundamentals, the core logic of liquor bull market in the past five years has not changed, and the future is still the process of price upgrading and brand concentration. The high-end, secondary high-end and light bottle liquor leaders will continue to increase market share and obtain sustainable and deterministic growth. Source: China Fund News Editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Tianfeng Securities said that the recent liquor plate volatility is significant, mainly due to the influence of funds and emotions, and the underlying fundamental support factor is the strong possibility of improvement on a month on month basis in the next three quarters. In the long run, the overall valuation center of liquor plate is expected to stabilize from 20-30 to 30-40 median.

CICC also pointed out that from the perspective of fundamentals, the core logic of liquor bull market in the past five years has not changed, and the future is still the process of price upgrading and brand concentration. The high-end, secondary high-end and light bottle liquor leaders will continue to increase market share and obtain sustainable and deterministic growth.