Sure enough, it fell! A shares buy drunk market suddenly brake? Thats what the agency says

category:Finance
 Sure enough, it fell! A shares buy drunk market suddenly brake? Thats what the agency says


Affected by the news of reducing holdings, on November 24, liquor stocks showed a significant decline. Among them, the liquor stock index fell sharply at the beginning of trading, falling more than 4% at one time, and the market value evaporated more than 180 billion. Within the plate, the hot shares of highland barley wine close to the limit, Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye and other leading stocks fell more than 1%. At the same time, the liquor index in the early trading also fell more than 2%, and more than 22 billion capital fled by midday.

Buy drunk market suddenly brake

Liquor stocks fell 180 billion

For many days in a row drunk market a shares, suddenly began to sober up.

In the morning of November 24, liquor stocks showed a significant decline. In the morning of the same day, the liquor index opened low and went low, with a rapid decline of more than 4% and the market value of liquor fell more than 180 billion yuan. By midday, the index fell more than 1%.

In the liquor sector, 24 component stocks were floating green. In a short half day, more than 22.5 billion funds fled the liquor sector, and the fund holding was reduced dramatically.

Within the plate, the previous hot stocks such as Guyue Longshan and Kuaijishan all fell more than 6%.

Large shareholders and large private placement successively reduced their holdings

On the evening of November 23, Yanghe company announced that Jiangsu blue alliance Co., Ltd. would reduce its shares of Yanghe shares by block trading from November 18 to November 20, 2020, accounting for 1.50% of the total share capital of Yanghe. Query block trading data, from November 18 to November 20, Yanghe shares in the three days of block trading shares was just 22.6267 million shares, which is the number of shares reduced by blue alliance, with a total transaction amount of 3.755 billion yuan.

According to the public information, blue alliance was the main holding platform for the management and backbone of Yanghe company when it was reformed. Many of the main shareholders behind the blue alliance were the old leaders of Yanghe shares, including the former chairman of Yanghe Group and the chairman of Yanghe shares.

Coincidentally, Yanjing Beer, the leader of beer stocks sought after by institutions, also issued a notice of reducing its holdings yesterday evening.

According to the announcement, Shanghai Chongyang Strategic Investment Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings of 22.9769 million shares (0.82% of the total share capital) on November 20. After the equity change, the shareholders shareholding ratio will reach 4.999999%, which is no longer a shareholder holding more than 5% of the companys shares. Chongyang investment intends to continue to reduce its equity shares in the company in the next 12 months.

On the evening of November 22, Qingdao beer also announced that from November 16 to 17, a physical company of Fosun International Co., Ltd. transferred 502000 H shares of the company through centralized bidding. Trading records show that since September 1, 2020, Fosun International Co., Ltd. has reduced 36.502 million shares through block trading or call auction for six times, with a transaction amount of about HK $2.487 billion, equivalent to RMB 2.105 billion.

However, these reduced holdings of alcohol stocks did not suffer too much negative effects. On the morning of November 24, Yanghe shares still rose more than 3% in the morning, Yanjing beer was red, and Qingdao Beers share price fell slightly.

Northward, hot money has a heavy position

In the morning of November 24, Jinfeng liquor industry opened again, during which the price limit was once impacted. And this is also the unit for four consecutive trading days brush limit board position. By midday, Jinfeng liquor industry rose more than 5%.

At the same time, on November 23, it bought more than 1.8 billion yuan of Guizhou Maotai and more than 60 million yuan of Yanghe shares.

However, there are also signs that institutional funds are gradually withdrawing while buying. After November 23, the Longhu list of Guyue Longshan showed that the seats of the two institutions appeared in the selling list, selling 63.94 million yuan and 39.9 million yuan respectively. In addition, according to the dragon and tiger list of Lanzhou Huanghe, there were also two institutions that bought and sold seats at the same time on November 23, which were the overall net sales of 1.7 million yuan and 330000 yuan respectively.

The prospect of small wine enterprises is still optimistic

Despite the obvious adjustment of liquor stocks, the prospects of liquor enterprises are still optimistic in the eyes of many securities and business opportunities organizations.

Founder Securities pointed out that in the past, the market had always regarded liquor as a cyclical industry. Now, after time of refining, it has finally accepted the consumption attribute of liquor, and the overall valuation has moved up. It will be normal in the future. The industry trend will continue to rise in the future at least five years. The performance of high-end and secondary high-end will continue to improve, and liquor will be given a new valuation system. It is suggested that we should grasp the cyclical rising market of high-end liquor. The performance of high-end liquor is stable, with high certainty. The trend of secondary high-end price is becoming more and more clear. We can see the growth of more than three years.

According to the food and beverage team of Societe Generale Securities, in the past liquor investment cycle, the plate always rose in the order of price from high to low. Recently, the increase of the third and fourth line mark was higher, and some investors in the market worried that the plate market was coming to an end. We dont think the market will stop here. In the first half of next year, the third and fourth line will still have a good performance.

Tianfeng Securities said that the recent liquor plate volatility is significant, mainly due to the influence of funds and emotions, and the underlying fundamental support factor is the strong possibility of improvement on a month on month basis in the next three quarters. In the long run, the overall valuation center of liquor plate is expected to stabilize from 20-30 to 30-40 median. However, CICC had made a contrary judgment on the valuation of small wine companies before, and clearly gave a cautious bearish view. At present, the speculation of some small wine enterprises has deviated from the fundamentals or have a large overdraft on the growth of performance, which is driven by funds. We think it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact brought by the fall of short-term sentiment. CICC also pointed out that from the perspective of fundamentals, the core logic of liquor bull market in the past five years has not changed, and the future is still the process of price upgrading and brand concentration. The high-end, secondary high-end and light bottle liquor leaders will continue to increase market share and obtain sustainable and deterministic growth. Source: China Fund News Editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Tianfeng Securities said that the recent liquor plate volatility is significant, mainly due to the influence of funds and emotions, and the underlying fundamental support factor is the strong possibility of improvement on a month on month basis in the next three quarters. In the long run, the overall valuation center of liquor plate is expected to stabilize from 20-30 to 30-40 median.

However, CICC had made a contrary judgment on the valuation of small wine companies before, and clearly gave a cautious bearish view. At present, the speculation of some small wine enterprises has deviated from the fundamentals or have a large overdraft on the growth of performance, which is driven by funds. We think it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact brought by the fall of short-term sentiment.

CICC also pointed out that from the perspective of fundamentals, the core logic of liquor bull market in the past five years has not changed, and the future is still the process of price upgrading and brand concentration. The high-end, secondary high-end and light bottle liquor leaders will continue to increase market share and obtain sustainable and deterministic growth.