Resources funds rise sharply, public offering short-term positive Pro cyclical stocks

category:Finance
 Resources funds rise sharply, public offering short-term positive Pro cyclical stocks


Resource class B and ETF rose sharply

On November 23, the pro cyclical plate showed strong performance. Benefited from this, the market price of resource classified fund B rose sharply or even rose, and the floor price of resource ETF soared at the same time. By the end of the day, the B shares of coal B, coal B and coal B were up and down, and the turnover reached 1.7905 million, 1.2752 million and 28.8007 million respectively. In addition, iron and steel B rose by 8.42%, while the prices of nonferrous metals B and resource B rose by 6.19% and 5.99% respectively.

In terms of ETF, the price of coal ETF increased by 5.83%, the energy ETF of GF fund increased by 4.47%, and the increase of resource ETF, energy ETF and raw material ETF of huitianfu fund exceeded 3%.

Since the beginning of November, the plate index of non-ferrous metals, steel, household appliances, mining and other sectors has increased by more than 10%.

Benefited from the strength of Pro cyclical plate, the net value of related funds rose sharply. Wind data shows that a number of nonferrous and resource index funds have increased by more than 15% since November, with the highest increase of more than 20%. Xincheng CSI 800 nonferrous metals rose by 22.75%, leading the resource funds. Funds such as China Southern Shenwan nonferrous metals ETF, China Thailand securities nonferrous metals industry, China Southern Securities Shenwan nonferrous metals ETF, UBS China Securities upstream and other funds all increased by more than 15%. In addition, active partial equity funds that reallocate resource stocks, such as Oriental pillar industry, moto enterprise optimization, new trend optimization of Chinese businessmen and Huabao resource optimization, have also seen significant growth since this month.

As for the core logic of the strong performance of the pro cyclical sector, Yang Xiaobin, manager of the Golden Eagle Industrial Integration fund, said that the epidemic situation was alleviated, the US presidential election was launched, the expectation of economic recovery at home and abroad was improved, and the investment risk preference was increased. As the recovery of economic fundamentals continues, more adjustment in the first half of the pro cyclical plate market will continue.

The core logic reflected by Pro cycle , reverse cycle and weak cycle is: in the whole process of macroeconomic improvement, is it beneficial or damaged. Of course, few industries will suffer from the macroeconomic recovery, but investors will definitely choose the areas that benefit most directly. Yang Xiaobin said.

Wells Fargo believes that one of the conditions to start a big market for cyclical stocks is: a substantial improvement in demand; a sharp contraction in supply; and an extremely loose liquidity. At present, the global liquidity remains loose, but the marginal is slowing down; the overseas supply side is affected by the repeated epidemic situation, and there is a certain contraction, but with the vaccine landing, the supply side constraints will be gradually eliminated; the improvement of demand under the economic recovery is the most core driving force at present, and the superposition vaccine has made significant progress, the economic recovery expectation is strengthened, and the cycle product valuation repair logic will also be strengthened To change.

Deppon fund related people said, in the second and third quarter, the domestic economy gradually recovered, and some pro cyclical industries showed good performance elasticity. In December, procyclical plate, undervalued and roe stable varieties may have better returns.

Procyclical logic may continue to

Global economic recovery completed

Will market styles change? How many plate cycles are there?

BAOYING Fund said that the current market deduction is from liquidity driven to fundamental driven logic. In the first quarter of next year, the cost performance ratio of valuation will be a factor to be considered by the market. In such an environment, the allocation of industries depends not only on the prosperity, but also on the valuation. In the medium term, under the background of the gradual recovery of the global economy, Chinas exports continue to rise, helping Chinas economy to continue to rise, and A-share earnings are still in the process of accelerating the upward trend. The recovery of the economy has brought more obvious investment opportunities to more pro cyclical industries. The overlapping fields of export chain and post real estate cycle, such as household appliances, light industry, auto parts, etc., and bulk commodities, such as nonferrous metals, chemical industry, coal, and financial real estate, have good opportunities.

In Yang Xiaobins view, how to develop the pro cyclical plate in the future needs to pay attention to the fading of the impact of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the economic recovery at home and abroad, and the exit rhythm of regulatory policies. At present, the domestic and international economy has not recovered to the level before the epidemic, and vaccine research and development and production as well as large-scale vaccination still need time, so it is difficult to significantly tighten the policy. On this basis, the pro cyclical logic will continue to the end of the global economic recovery, about half a year. The investment and research team of Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that the increase of overseas vaccine landing probability will further boost the recovery expectation of global growth, especially those industries and fields damaged by the epidemic situation. Based on this, the configuration mainline of Pro cycle is maintained. A boost in risk appetite and a recovery in economic fundamentals will all benefit from the stock targets with an upward resonance in the economy, including automobiles, household appliances and some traditional industries with lower valuations. In addition, the gap between contact and non-contact industries will be narrowed under the expectation of vaccine, and the sectors that have been greatly impacted by the epidemic in the early stage, such as aviation and tourism, are expected to perform in the short term.

In Yang Xiaobins view, how to develop the pro cyclical plate in the future needs to pay attention to the fading of the impact of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the economic recovery at home and abroad, and the exit rhythm of regulatory policies. At present, the domestic and international economy has not recovered to the level before the epidemic, and vaccine research and development and production as well as large-scale vaccination still need time, so it is difficult to significantly tighten the policy. On this basis, the pro cyclical logic will continue to the end of the global economic recovery, about half a year.

The investment and research team of Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that the increase of overseas vaccine landing probability will further boost the recovery expectation of global growth, especially those industries and fields damaged by the epidemic situation. Based on this, the configuration mainline of Pro cycle is maintained. A boost in risk appetite and a recovery in economic fundamentals will all benefit from the stock targets with an upward resonance in the economy, including automobiles, household appliances and some traditional industries with lower valuations. In addition, the gap between contact and non-contact industries will be narrowed under the expectation of vaccine, and the sectors that have been greatly impacted by the epidemic in the early stage, such as aviation and tourism, are expected to perform in the short term.