Shanghai Composite Index recovers 3400 points

category:Finance
 Shanghai Composite Index recovers 3400 points


Non ferrous metal prices continue to rise

The logic of cyclical stock strength is very simple, that is, price rise. On the one hand, as the economy recovers from the epidemic, the demand increases sharply. Compared with the strong growth of downstream industries, the growth of upstream basic cyclical industries lags behind, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. On the other hand, in response to the epidemic, liquidity is injected into the world, weakening the US dollar, and increasing inflation expectations, resulting in the rise of commodities, thus driving the rise of cyclical stocks. In addition, this winters La Nina phenomenon was superimposed, and the northern resource provinces were cooling down in large areas. All localities launched emergency plans for severe weather, which led to poor transportation, intensified the supply contradiction of non-ferrous metals and coal, and further increased the price.

In terms of non-ferrous metals, according to the statistics of London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, zinc and other inventories are in the historical low area, and prices have continued to rise since the second half of the year. On Monday, the main contract prices of Shanghai aluminum futures exchange hit a new high in more than three years, Shanghai copper hit a new high in two and a half years, and Shanghai zinc hit a new high in a year and a half. From the years low point, the cumulative increase was nearly 50%.

Non ferrous metal prices continue to rise, but also stimulate A-share non-ferrous plate in the near future. On Monday, the nonferrous metals plate index rose 2.83% in volume, reaching a new high in two and a half years, while transactions reached a new high in more than five years. Hongchuang holdings, Chihong Zinc and germanium trading, Mingtai aluminum, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yuguang Gold lead and other intraday trading also rose.

Zhongyuan Securities said that driven by the positive fiscal and loose monetary policy, industrial metal prices rebounded rapidly to the high level in recent years, and nonferrous metals had passed the dark moment. Under the background of several years of capital expenditure slowdown in mining industry, the speed of capacity release may be slower than the pace of economic recovery, and the price of non-ferrous metals will maintain a positive trend in 2021. It is suggested to focus on industrial gold And new energy metals.

Coal: both import and inventory decline

Due to the repeated overseas epidemic situation, the import of coal decreased sharply. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, Chinas coal import volume in October was 13.726 million tons, 11.959 million tons lower than that of 25.685 million tons in the same period of last year, a decrease of 46.56%. Compared with 18.676 million tons in September, it decreased by 4.95 million tons and 26.5% month on month. The scale of coal import decreased rapidly for three consecutive months. From January to October, Chinas coal imports totaled 253.155 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 8.3%, which was larger than that of 4.4% from January to September.

According to the latest statistics of China Coal Industry Association, as of the end of October, coal enterprises had stored 61 million tons of coal, a decrease of 4.3% on a month on month basis; 57.75 million tons of coal were stored in the main ports of China, with a decrease of 6.37 million tons, or 9.9%; of which, 27.76 million tons were stored in northern ports, with a decrease of 2.42 million tons on a month on month basis, a decrease of 8.8%; 29.99 million tons of coal were stored in southern ports, with a decrease of 3.95 million tons, or 11.6%.

Due to the decline of import and inventory, and the winter heating, coal demand has entered the peak period. Since the low point, steam coal has increased by nearly 30%, coking coal has increased by more than 30%, and coke has increased by more than 60%. Affected by the price rise, coal stocks have also strengthened frequently recently. On Monday, the plate index soared by 5.12%, leading the two cities to rise, and the trading volume greatly increased by more than one time. Zhengzhou coal power, Datong coal industry, Xishan coal power and Yanzhou coal industry were up and down. Xishan Coal and power after the dragon and tiger list shows that Shenzhen Stock connect exclusive seats at the same time to buy one and sell three, respectively bought 94.06 million yuan, sold 49.84 million yuan, and bought 44.22 million yuan net. Buy three seats for institutions, buy 44.24 million yuan. One is also a special seat for institutions, with 234 million yuan sold. Societe Generale Securities said that on the supply side, the blue sky defense war began, and at the same time, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces issued a blizzard warning, and the two factors superimposed, supply and transportation will continue to be tense. In terms of demand, a number of economic data continued to recover, and coal demand entered a seasonal Pro cycle. It is expected that the coal price strength will maintain until the end of the year. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Due to the decline of import and inventory, and the winter heating, coal demand has entered the peak period. Since the low point, steam coal has increased by nearly 30%, coking coal has increased by more than 30%, and coke has increased by more than 60%. Affected by the price rise, coal stocks have also strengthened frequently recently. On Monday, the plate index soared by 5.12%, leading the two cities to rise, and the trading volume greatly increased by more than one time. Zhengzhou coal power, Datong coal industry, Xishan coal power and Yanzhou coal industry were up and down.

Xishan Coal and power after the dragon and tiger list shows that Shenzhen Stock connect exclusive seats at the same time to buy one and sell three, respectively bought 94.06 million yuan, sold 49.84 million yuan, and bought 44.22 million yuan net. Buy three seats for institutions, buy 44.24 million yuan. One is also a special seat for institutions, with 234 million yuan sold.

Societe Generale Securities said that on the supply side, the blue sky defense war began, and at the same time, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces issued a blizzard warning, and the two factors superimposed, supply and transportation will continue to be tense. In terms of demand, a number of economic data continued to recover, and coal demand entered a seasonal Pro cycle. It is expected that the coal price strength will maintain until the end of the year.