The wealth code behind the fad: bubble Mart IPO valuation or more than $6 billion

category:Finance
 The wealth code behind the fad: bubble Mart IPO valuation or more than $6 billion


For the valuation of the company, paopaopao Ma te told the Securities Daily that everything is subject to the announcement of the Hong Kong stock exchange. However, a senior investment banker believes that the valuation is in line with the current capital market expectations of bubble Mart.

Wang Chunxia, CEO of lega think tank, said in an interview with Securities Daily that the market value and valuation of bubble Mart should not be limited to toys or blind boxes. Because in an era of per capita GDP exceeding $10000, the expansibility of things that can bring spiritual pleasure will be boundless. If there is an indicator that can test the pleasure value of a product, then it can be called emotional value, emotional valuation method. There is bound to be huge space for Chinas emerging consumption in the future. Although it may not be possible to find a mature path overseas to fully benchmark, the super species in this field will also create miracles in the capital market.

27476 blind boxes were sold

In the prospectus, bubble Mart called itself a company promoting the culture of trendy toys, but in real life, many young people still regard it as a synonym for blind box.

In the mouth of senior Fan Li Tian, the doll in the blind box is called baby. Li Tian is a young teacher, but her love for baby is rarely known. We seldom talk about blind boxes in the office. It seems that it is a shame for adults to be obsessed with toys. As a matter of fact, Li Tian will go offline to buy new products every time. Most of the time, she chooses end box. She told reporters that the end box refers to buying all the new products at one time. There are usually 12 blind boxes in a large box, and occasionally there is a hidden model. Although the probability of getting hidden items is not high, she still wants to collect each set of blind boxes.

After hearing the news that paopaopao Mart was about to be listed, Li Tian was surprised to ask, did we buy it for listing?

In the first three quarters of this year, the sales volume of bubble Mart blind box products was 27476, with a year-on-year increase of 70.5%; the average price of blind box products was 46 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%.

Among them, the online platform is one of the fastest growing channels, with the revenue share of 9.4%, 20.0% and 32.0% from 2017 to 2019, and further increased to 40.9% in the first half of 2020.

It is worth noting that in the first half of 2020, the revenue of bubble mart tmall flagship store was 147 million yuan, an increase of 122.2% compared with the same period in 2019; while the revenue of bubble box extractor small program was 162 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.3%. In the double 11 activities of tmall in 2019 and 2020, the sales volume of bubble mart tmall flagship store ranked first in the category of model game of tmall.

456 million yuan

Bubble marts revenue channel is not limited to selling blind boxes.

In the first three quarters of this year, the revenue of bubble Mart was 1.544 billion yuan, an increase of 49.3% year-on-year; the gross profit rate was 64%, which was 63.7% in the same period of last year.

The companys revenue sources include commodity sales, exhibition revenue, license fee income and other income.

As of June 30, 2020, bubble Mart has operated 93 IP, including 12 self owned IP, 25 exclusive IP and 56 non exclusive IP. Among them, bubble Mart launched 16 new IP in the first half of the year, and is expected to launch 14 or more IP in the second half of the year. In 2019, the revenue generated by the top four IP will exceed 100 million yuan.

In terms of product composition, bubble Mart brand products are divided into proprietary IP, exclusive IP and non exclusive IP. Among them, proprietary IP includes Molly, dimoo, Bobo & coco, Yuki, and exclusive IP includes pucky, themonsters and satyrory.

Is the blind box mode difficult to replicate?

According to frost Sullivans report, bubble mart is the largest and fastest growing fashion toy company in China based on its revenue in 2019 and its revenue growth rate from 2017 to 2019. Among them, according to the retail sales in 2019, bubble marts share in Chinas fashion toy market is 8.5%.

In user portraits, bubble marts fan base mainly covers people aged 15 to 35, who have high energy consumption and are keen to share and display. According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research Report, it is estimated that there are 3 million to 5 million people (mainly concentrated in the 18-35-year-old group) in China, and the main consumer force is generation Z (people born between 1995 and 2009).

It can be said that the market potential of domestic blind box game has emerged, but in the whole industry, does bubble Mart have core competitiveness?

Blind box business model is highly reproducible, and the core barrier lies in the advantages of platform integration. Shenwan Hongyuan research paper believes that bubble mart will rank first in the Chaozhou game market with an 8.5% market share in 2019. The second tier players include IP stations, 1983 and 52toys. There are many players in the blind box industry, but there are many players in the blind box industry. However, there are many players in the industry who only do a single link in design, production or sales, and there are relatively few players in the whole industry chain. Bubble mart, with its strong IP exploration and operation promotion capabilities, has established an integrated platform covering the entire IP operation value chain to improve its IP business value and enhance its brand awareness and liquidity.

Wang Chunxia, CEO of laiga think tank, told reporters that paopaopao Matt is the only closed-loop enterprise that has formed the whole industrial chain. Upstream has its own group of designers and is constantly signing new designers. In midstream manufacturing and operation, chaoplay generally adapts to OEM factories rather than self built factories. Large volume bubble mart is the best choice for OEM factories. Downstream channel, bubble Mart offline stores + robot stores + online direct stores mode is almost the only one in the industry.

Source: Securities Daily editor: Yang Qian_ NF4425