Maotai goes through 1800 more, 15 liquor companies have doubled their gains this year
In the face of such a hazy clarification, Maotais share price directly rose by nearly 3%. Two months later, Maotais stock price rose 4.08% to 1790.21 yuan.
In fact, it is not only Maotais share price that has gone through the dust, but also other liquor stocks. If we look at the absolute increase since this year, Maotais achievement of nearly doubling from the lowest price of 960 yuan to the highest price of 1828 yuan this year is not to be proud of. Jinhui liquor, with the highest increase of more than five times, is proud of the liquor market. Jiugui Liquor has a maximum increase of more than 3 times. Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao and St shede, Yanghe, Wuliangye, gujinggong, Laobaigan, Yingjia gongjiu and other Baijiu brothers, whose biggest increase in the year exceeded that of Maotai, Guizhou.
(chart / liquor stocks with the largest increase since 2020 exceed Guizhou Maotai varieties)
Short term valuation has reached a record high, and securities companies still need to pay attention to long-term value
So, in the face of the Xi Da Pu Ben Carnival of Baijiu stocks, what should we do about it? Will this be a new wave of feast or will it be the rest of the banquet?
According to Kou Xing, chief analyst of food and beverage industry of Huaxi Securities, from the perspective of wholesale price performance, the prices of high-end liquor such as Maotai and Wuliangye will continue to rise. This will drive the whole industry to continue the business cycle. In theory, all enterprises in the middle and lower reaches will have the opportunity of performance growth. In recent years, under the background of steady decline of total demand and total output, the whole industry has achieved high performance growth by raising prices. From the slope of performance growth, the growth rate of middle and lower reaches liquor will be faster, and the secondary high-end liquor with strategic upgrading, product price focusing and marketing promotion guaranteed will have higher performance elasticity.
For high-end liquor, it is not so much a commodity as a commodity that consumers buy at a premium. Consumers of Feitian Maotai are not sensitive to its price, and the elasticity of supply and demand does not seem to be applicable to high-end liquor.
Along with it, secondary high-end liquor also has the market space of precise substitution. According to the food and beverage weekly report of Tianfeng securities, Feitian Maotais approval price is maintained at about 2840 yuan, and the terminal price is at 3000 yuan / bottle. The price of Wuliangye in the eight dynasties was maintained at 960 yuan and 840 yuan in Luzhou Laojiao. At present, from the channel situation, the high-end liquor channels are at the historical low inventory level, Maotai continues to be in short supply, and the market circulation price still has room to rise. Wuliangye seems to recognize that a bottle of Maotai can change three bottles of Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 also keep a close eye on Wuliangyes every move. The secondary high-end liquor did not try to reach the customers of Maotai, but chose to cultivate its own territory. Instead, it realized the common prosperity development with Maotai. This may be the foundation of the high-end and secondary high-end liquor prices to soar.
Nowadays, the new years day and Spring Festival traditional liquor consumption peak season is approaching. The industry price rise in the name of consumption upgrading is expected to continue to spread to the second and third tier liquor brands. In the price range of 300 yuan to 600 yuan, there are many competing products and their market positioning is more fuzzy. Can they really form a tacit understanding of market segmentation and price like Maotai and Wuliangye?
If the liquor of the second and third tier brands only raises the price simply without the support of strategic coordination, product quality improvement and market share increase, then the price battle may not be far away. So, what reason does its stock price valuation (P / E ratio) leave Maotai far behind?
According to the industrial development logic, brand is the core competitive factor of liquor enterprises, and the industry differentiation trend is irreversible. Sichuan financial securities also said that the third quarter is the traditional peak season for liquor sales, and the growth of liquor industry has changed from the last round of expansion growth to the squeeze growth under brand differentiation, and the sales and profits of high-end liquor enterprises are still rising, while some of them are still improving However, the growth rate of regional and third and fourth tier liquor companies will decrease significantly, and the performance differentiation of liquor enterprises will increase.