1 u2012 in October, the sales area of commercial housing in the city was 6.709 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings was 5.26 million square meters, a decrease of 4.8%; the sales area of office buildings was 266000 square meters, a decrease of 19.4%; the sales area of commercial business buildings was 474000 square meters, an increase of 89.6%.
From the data, we can see that the housing market and the office market in Beijing are showing a polarization state of rising and falling.
Office vacancy rate rises
Li Hua (not his real name), a tenant of an office building on Jianguo Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, last month withdrew his office area he had rented for nearly a year.
After experiencing the epidemic situation, renting office buildings is also a venture capital. Since online office can solve the problem, we can save the expenses of renting office buildings, which can be used for channel operation and business expansion. On November 18, Li Hua told the times weekly that for small and medium-sized enterprises, the rental cost of office buildings is a very expensive and boring fixed expenditure.
In terms of grade B office buildings, a large number of vacant areas appeared in the third quarter. The overall vacancy level increased by 1.4% - 14.9%, and the rent decreased by 1.9% to 241 yuan / m2 per month.
According to Colliers International, in the next 15 months, Beijings property market will usher in a new supply of nearly 2 million square meters of office buildings. The imbalance between supply and demand will intensify and continue until 2021, and the vacancy rate will peak to nearly 25% next year.
In fact, since the beginning of 2019, the supply of office buildings in Beijing has exceeded the demand.
According to the latest research report of Jones Lang LaSalle, there are several indicators of Beijing market reaching 10-year low in 2019. In 2019, the overall commercial real estate market in Beijing will slow down, especially the office building market, and the market demand will slow down for the first time in 10 years. In the class A office building market, the annual net absorption in 2019 decreased by 32% year-on-year; meanwhile, the citys vacancy rate increased from 6% at the end of 2018 to 11.3%, reaching the highest level since 2010.
2020 will be a critical period for the market to seek solutions and potential growth opportunities, said Mi Yang, director of North China research at Jones Lang LaSalle. Entering the adjustment period is also conducive to the market to further complement the short board and lay the foundation for long-term growth.
Housing market is on the rise
Just when the office market is chilly, the residential market presents a lively scene.
The first half of this years property market is very cold, and the second half is very hot, especially at the end of September and the beginning of October. On November 20, a real estate consultant from the Asian Games Village, Chaoyang District, Beijing, told the times weekly that a large part of the reason for this phenomenon was that the epidemic in the first half of the year suppressed the purchase demand of most people. When the epidemic situation was under control, it was naturally put on the agenda to buy a house or change a house with high quality.
According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in October, the number of new customers of second-hand houses in Beijing chain family increased by about 8% month on month, and the absolute value was the maximum monthly value since 2019, and the number of houses with viewing also increased by about 18%. The seasonal rebound of the market at the end of the year will gradually start. It is expected that the actual volume of second-hand residential buildings in Beijing rebounded month on month in November, but the range is weaker than that in the same period last year. The annual turnover of second-hand housing in Beijing was about 160000 units, the largest since 2017, with a year-on-year increase of about 10%.
Real estate companies are also aware that consumer demand will be released in large quantities. In the second half of the golden nine silver ten sales peak season, many real estate enterprises make marketing strategies of fast selling and vigorously promoting sales.
According to the official website of Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, a total of 22 projects were issued with pre-sale certificates (including advance notice) in September, and 8 projects were issued with pre-sale certificates in only one day on September 30.
On September 30, rongchuang Xiangshan No.1 Hospital opened, with sales of 4.53 billion yuan in three hours; on the same day, Yihe Jinmao Mansion opened with an opening sales of 5.06 billion yuan.
On November 20, Zhang Xiang (pseudonym), the marketing director of a real estate enterprise in Beijing, admitted to the times weekly that the performance target in the first half of the year should be completed in the second half of the year, and it will take half a year to complete the sales volume of one year.
From September 1 to October 31, Evergrande achieved a total contract sales amount of 181.97 billion yuan through a 70% discount promotion of all products.
From November 5 to November 11, the number of units purchased reached 24699 in seven days, with a total of 36.79 billion yuan.
According to the house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities by the National Bureau of statistics, in August, the selling prices of newly-built commercial houses in Beijing rose by 0.6% month on month, and the prices of second-hand residential buildings rose by 0.7% month on month in Beijing; in September, the selling prices of newly-built commercial houses in Beijing rose by 0.3% month on month, and the prices of second-hand houses rose by 0.4% in October u3002
Some industry experts predict that from the current overall sales situation in 2020, the Spring Festival sales peak season in 2021 will be ahead of schedule.
When it is less than 2 months from 2021, the impact of the three red lines on the industry has begun to show.
At the Wanke Southern regional media exchange meeting, Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke Group, said: the influence of the three red lines is no less than the land bidding, auction and listing system in 2002. This means that the real estate industry major game rules change, will affect all real estate enterprises.
With such a large number of variables in the real estate industry, most real estate enterprises will hoard grain. On November 20, Li Naichao, President of Beijing Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, told the times weekly that in this years real estate industry, some enterprises are very likely to fail to meet the performance standards. In order to narrow the gap between the target amount and the target amount, enterprises vigorously promote sales, which may lead to the Spring Festival sales promotion season ahead of schedule. Zhang Xiang said frankly that since the end of October, the company has been preparing for the Spring Festival Promotion. In addition to continuing the previous marketing activities, the company will also shorten the time for the new market to enter the market, and move the projects expected to open at the beginning of 2021 to the end of 2020. Li Naichao said that the early opening and discount promotion of enterprises in the past years were only to improve the performance, but from this year, it also meant fighting against risks and dealing with unknown variables in the industry. Source: time weekly editor: Chen Hequn_ NB12679
With such a large number of variables in the real estate industry, most real estate enterprises will hoard grain.
Zhang Xiang said frankly that since the end of October, the company has been preparing for the Spring Festival Promotion. In addition to continuing the previous marketing activities, the company will also shorten the time for the new market to enter the market, and move the projects expected to open at the beginning of 2021 to the end of 2020.
Li Naichao said that the early opening and discount promotion of enterprises in the past years were only to improve the performance, but from this year, it also meant fighting against risks and dealing with unknown variables in the industry.