The cycle has just started, the period of adding positions, the cycle opportunities continue to appear, follow the trend and other securities research headlines are calling on investors to embrace a new round of cyclical market.
On November 23, the market was full of joy. The Shanghai stock index rose 1.09% to 3414.49, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.74% and the gem rose 0.72%. The transaction volume of the two cities totaled 954 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 10.51 billion yuan from the north.
On the disk, coal, nonferrous metals and other resources plate became the main force of the rise, followed by securities companies and other financial follow-up to jointly promote the Shanghai index. Wind data showed that among the primary industry indexes of CITIC Securities, the coal index rose 5.13% in a single day, leading the market. Nonferrous Metals and petroleum and petrochemical indexes ranked second and third with 3.13% and 2.18% respectively. Big banks and banks as a whole rose.
In terms of individual stocks, Zhengzhou coal power, Xishan coal power, Datong Coal Industry and other 4 shares were trading, while the non-ferrous plate was trading limit of hongchuang holding, Chihong Zinc Germanium and sotong development.
Basically, the price rise has become an important reason for the rally of cyclical stocks. Taking basic metals as an example, Shanghai aluminums main force has soared from 11225 yuan / ton to nearly 15865 yuan / ton. It is expected to hit the peak of 17250 / T in 2017.
The current quotation of Shanghai coppers main force is 53970 yuan / ton, which has already broken through the high point in 2017.
CITIC futures believes that the macroeconomic indicators continue to improve, and the optimism brought about by vaccines is still continuing; in terms of supply and demand, Chinas copper consumption is not weak in the off-season, power consumption is stable, and the production and sales of home appliances and automobiles are performing well. At the same time, the linkage between nonferrous metals stocks and futures has been strengthened again recently, and speculative funds have promoted the short-term rotation of nonferrous commodities.
Under the big rise, the institutions also continue to voice optimism.
The cycle has just started, the period of adding positions, the cycle opportunities continue to appear, follow the trend and many other securities companies research headlines are calling on investors to embrace a new round of cyclical market.
We believe that looking forward to the next six months, as the epidemic gradually passes through the most dangerous time, the economy may continue to exceed expectations. Cycle stocks will appear Davis double-click, driving the index into a new rise. Fund activity will rise further, which will become an important force for the index to go up. New era securities analyst fan Jituo said in the research paper.
Wang Jun, chief strategic analyst of BOC securities, believes that for the cyclical industry, the key issue now is not whether to allocate, but how much to allocate. The market is systematically underestimating the magnitude and sustainability of cyclical industry earnings. Considering that the current investors have great differences on the cyclical market, the industry level recommendation is more short-term and short-term, so from the perspective of investment sentiment, the cyclical industry also has a large positive expectation gap.
Wang Jun said that as of November 20, the monthly yield of shenwanwan nonferrous metals industry was 18.2%, which returned to the first place in the whole industry. At the same time, the prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, etc. of overseas bulk commodities also continuously set new highs in this round. Considering that this round of short-term recovery, the momentum of industry fundamentals is very strong, and the subsequent election of Biden, the implementation of US fiscal stimulus, the commercialization of vaccines and other value catalysts that are conducive to the cycle are introduced in succession. Now, we should firmly continue to increase the position of the cycle plate and take it as the preferred style for configuration next year.
According to Wang Jun, there are three main logics in the cycle of adding positions
First, under the mode of global symbiosis, the demand stimulus of consumer countries is transformed into the capacity of manufacturing countries and the prices of bulk commodities are driven;
Second, the depreciation of the US dollar is persistent. Under the background of RMB appreciation and rising inflation expectations, the undervalued profits of nonferrous metals, black metals, real estate and finance are improved, and the industry awareness tends to be strong; (refer to international game - deduce 2008 from the relationship between appreciation and inflation)
Third, the strong cycle under the weak domestic stimulus, the supply side structural reform constraints continue, the weak stimulus continues to optimize the industry pattern, the overseas demand brings the industry profit improvement, and the cycle leader premium is obvious.
Wang Jun said that in terms of specific allocation, investors who pursue steady absolute return will choose the large Pro cyclical financial sector as the first choice. The main logic is that under the background of RMB appreciation, the continuous increase of long-term interest rate is a big probability event, and the widening of long-term interest rate brings about the continuous improvement of banks undervalued profits; for investors pursuing elasticity, it is suggested that strong cyclical resources should be put into operation Is the preferred configuration. Compared with the upgrading experience of Japanese manufacturing industry, the largest increase of copper and aluminum reached 175% and 289% from 1975 to 1982. The most undervalued oil and petrochemical industry, oil prices fall, stagflation, upward repair space is large; transportation profit recovery is strong, the global recovery during the epidemic period is benefited.
However, some investors believe that the speculation of cyclical stocks often comes and goes in a gust of wind. When investors have insufficient judgment on the market, rash entry is not a good choice.
The fluctuation of the cycle is not small. Its hard to hold on to those who have no faith. Plate is not crazy, just restless. An institutional source said.
Some analysts also believe that the cycle may last for a limited period of time. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 to the first quarter of next year may appear obvious phased dominance. This is an important factor that supports the pro cyclical style and can continue to lead for a quarter or so.
However, in the medium and long term, the style trend in the medium and long term is determined by the relative strength of profit expectations of traditional economy and emerging industries. At present, whether according to our profit forecasting model or the attitude of the decision-makers to increase leverage, the trend of medium and long-term emerging industry performance is far from over.
Tianfeng Securities said that from the persistence of excess earnings, building materials and chemical industry have the most advantages. One of the reasons may be that the chemical and building materials industry has a better pattern and more alpha companies with cyclical growth attributes, so it can attract more medium and long-term funds. However, the nonferrous metals, steel and mining industries lack significant growth and u03b1 attribute of individual stocks. The overall u03b2 depends on the elasticity of demand side. Therefore, it lacks the attention of long-term funds and relies more on short-term funds to form short-term trading opportunities. Stock prices are easy to rise and fall, and it is relatively difficult to make money. From the strength of excess earnings, building materials, nonferrous metals and chemical industry have the most advantages. Taking into account the special circumstances of this round of PPI recovery range, such as the expectation of global economic recovery brought by vaccines, the logic of Tob consumption of building materials may be affected by the three red lines of real estate. At the same time, considering the problem of sustainability, chemical industry is the first choice, followed by basic metals. Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368
Tianfeng Securities said that from the persistence of excess earnings, building materials and chemical industry have the most advantages. One of the reasons may be that the chemical and building materials industry has a better pattern and more alpha companies with cyclical growth attributes, so it can attract more medium and long-term funds. However, the nonferrous metals, steel and mining industries lack significant growth and u03b1 attribute of individual stocks. The overall u03b2 depends on the elasticity of demand side. Therefore, it lacks the attention of long-term funds and relies more on short-term funds to form short-term trading opportunities. Stock prices are easy to rise and fall, and it is relatively difficult to make money.