Central bank net investment of 20 billion yuan institutions: no need to worry about rapid monetary tightening

category:Finance
 Central bank net investment of 20 billion yuan institutions: no need to worry about rapid monetary tightening


The average opening price of the main repo contract was 10.02% lower than that of the inter day weighted repo contract, and the average opening price of the main repo contract was 10.2% lower than that of the open day of the main repo contract, which was 10.02% lower than that of the first day.

Earlier, the central bank said at a news conference that the current monetary policy is at a relatively balanced level, and there is no need to reduce the policy interest rate to provide extra liquidity for the banking system. From the perspective of long-term, short-term and medium-term liquidity, the liquidity of the banking system is maintained at a reasonable and sufficient level. In this case, the purpose of maintaining liquidity can be met by over continuation of conventional tools such as MLF and open market operations.

How to treat the subsequent changes of monetary policy? CICC believes that the subsequent central banks monetary policy exit is more a quantitative exit than a price exit, because the price has already exited. In the short term, credit events may make the central bank take care of market liquidity, and the interest rate of money market may fall at the end of the year.

CITIC Goodwin said there was no need to worry about rapid monetary tightening. He pointed out that the breaking of the belief in Gangyu and the reform and opening up of the financial market are in progress, but it is also a fact that there are a large number of small and micro enterprises and relatively lack of investment knowledge among residents in China. In the short term, leaving bank credit is not in line with the reality, and the major policy of regulating monetary policy may be to stabilize leverage, control risk and develop together with reform and opening up. Therefore, from the perspective of the direction of monetary policy next year, it is the general trend to control the credit supply and smooth the leverage ratio; at the same time, the current inter-bank liquidity has been at a relatively low level, if it continues to tighten, it may cause policy cliff and rapid deleveraging, which is not conducive to economic development. It is expected that monetary policy and regulatory policy will advance at a steady pace, there is no need to worry about tightening in the short term, and marginal easing is still needed in the medium and long term.

Jianghai Securities said that the interest rate dropped significantly on Monday, and the financial stability Council made the latest statement on the issue of credit bond default at the weekend, saying that it would uphold the zero tolerance attitude and maintain market fairness and order. We should strictly investigate and deal with all kinds of illegal acts such as fraudulent issuance, false information disclosure, malicious transfer of assets and misappropriation of issuance funds in accordance with the law, severely punish all kinds of evasion and cancellation of debts and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors. This statement eased the short-term pressure on the default of credit bonds and avoided further impact on liquidity. In addition, the central bank net released liquidity, so interest rates fell. For the later market, Jianghai Securities believes that: in the short term, the liquidity risk caused by the deterioration of early credit risk will lead to the rebound of interest rate bond yield, and the market will be repaired in the later stage. In the medium term, whether the credit default eases or not depends on the improvement of economy and credit qualification of enterprises. Since this round of epidemic, the macro leverage ratio of each subject has increased significantly. Once the policy starts to withdraw next year, the default pressure of enterprises may increase, so it is not optimistic that the credit risk will ease in the medium term. If the policy focuses on the malicious evasion and cancellation of debt, it will still help to ease the pressure of disorderly default of credit bonds, which will lead to liquidity risk. If the increase of credit risk does not cause liquidity risk, the environment of interest rate bond will be more favorable. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

For the later market, Jianghai Securities believes that: in the short term, the liquidity risk caused by the deterioration of early credit risk will lead to the rebound of interest rate bond yield, and the market will be repaired in the later stage. In the medium term, whether the credit default eases or not depends on the improvement of economy and credit qualification of enterprises. Since this round of epidemic, the macro leverage ratio of each subject has increased significantly. Once the policy starts to withdraw next year, the default pressure of enterprises may increase, so it is not optimistic that the credit risk will ease in the medium term. If the policy focuses on the malicious evasion and cancellation of debt, it will still help to ease the pressure of disorderly default of credit bonds, which will lead to liquidity risk. If the increase of credit risk does not cause liquidity risk, the environment of interest rate bond will be more favorable.