Guizhou Maotai urgently clarifies, but its market value still exceeds 88 billion a day

category:Finance
 Guizhou Maotai urgently clarifies, but its market value still exceeds 88 billion a day


Guizhou Maotai also said that the fourth quarter sales plan has been incorporated into the annual sales plan and included in the disclosed financial budget for 2020. The proportion of direct sales revenue of the company in the fourth quarter of 2020 will not change significantly compared with the first three quarters, and the target of achieving an increase of 10% or so in 2020 compared with the previous year has not changed.

However, even after the announcement of clarification, the stock price of Maotai in Guizhou Province was still high in the morning trading on November 23, reaching 1809 yuan in the intraday. The companys latest breakthrough of 1800 mark was on September 3. As of todays closing, Guizhou Maotai closed at 1790.21 yuan, with a market value of 88.2 billion yuan higher than the previous trading day.

The Oolong incident dates back to November 20.

This afternoon, the official account of Moutai Guizhou released an article entitled Moutai marketing release heavy signal: direct sales and volume aggregation and stable market. According to the article, on November 18, Guizhou Maotai liquor held a forum on direct sales channel dealers in 2020. The meeting revealed that by the end of October, Maotai had cooperated with 68 direct marketing channel operators, including high-quality enterprises in the fields of e-commerce, supermarket, state-owned enterprises, tobacco chain, etc., and the construction of channel flattening has achieved preliminary results. In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2020, its direct sales channel plans to sell 4160 tons of Feitian Maotai liquor.

What is the concept of 4160 tons? Based on 2124 bottles per ton of Feitian Maotai, the corresponding quantity is 8.8358 million bottles; if the sales plan of Maotai liquor in 2020 announced by Guizhou Maotai in December last year is 34500 tons, the direct sales volume of Guizhou Maotai in the fourth quarter will be 12.06% of the annual planned volume, and the proportion will be even greater if it is put in the fourth quarter alone. The reporter noted that after the publication of the above-mentioned articles, most reports have given such an interpretation and said that Guizhou Maotai Liquors main business income in the direct sales channel from January to September this year reached 8.433 billion yuan. On this basis, if 12.06% of the annual sales plan is added, the proportion of direct sales may even exceed 20%, and direct selling is considered to have a disguised form The effect of price increase has an obvious effect on increasing Maotais profit.

However, for this increase in direct sales channel investment will increase performance, Guizhou Maotai denied in the Clarification Announcement. Ouyang Qianli, a liquor researcher, said in an interview with the international financial news that this mainly depends on whether the performance of direct sales channels belongs to Maotai Group or joint-stock company. In addition, the price of direct marketing channel is also one of the factors to be considered.

Maotais direct sales channel can not be equal to the direct sales caliber disclosed at the report end. The latter is mainly the data statistics of the companys Direct stores. In the forum, the direct sales channels are mainly direct consumer oriented channels such as commercial supermarkets and online channels, which are jointly delivered by group marketing companies and joint-stock companies. On November 22, Guosheng Securities pointed out in its research report that the direct sales channels in Maotai forum and Guizhou Maotai financial statements need to be differentiated.

Guosheng securities further pointed out that, according to the calculation, considering the restrictions of related party transactions of marketing companies of Maotai Group, assuming that the marketing companies put in average every quarter in the second half of the year, it is estimated that 1550 tons of 4160 tons will be supplied by the group marketing company, and about 2600 tons will be supplied by the joint-stock company. According to the estimation of 53% net interest rate, the increased net profit is about 954 million yuan By the fourth quarter of 2020, it is estimated that the income and net profit will be increased by about 7% / 8%, covering the negative effects of donations on profits.

Reporters noted that the official announcement of Moutai WeChat official account released by Moutai official WeChat: heavy sales signal: direct sales, volume and stable market, has been deleted, and according to a reporter familiar with Moutai in the afternoon, this chapter has been misread.

As for the Clarification Announcement of Guizhou Maotai, Shen Meng, director of Xiangsong capital, said in an interview with the reporter of international financial news that he had the intention to meet the requirements of Xinpi: the planned sales data previously published may have an important impact on the stock price expectation of Maotai, but the data source is not from the official announcement, which may cause market speculation on the companys fourth quarter performance, or will be supervised The information disclosure violation is determined by the administrative department.

On December 27, 2019, on December 27, 2019, on the work arrangement for the next year, Li Baofang, the former chairman of Maotai Group, once said that in 2020, in terms of share allocation, one is to continue to sign contracts with dealers in accordance with the principle of no increase or decrease; second, supply goods to supermarkets, e-commerce and group purchase plans in accordance with the idea of flattening; and the third is to increase the amount of shares High self operation scale.

In the view of CAI Xuefei, an analyst in the liquor industry, Maotai plans to sell 4160 tons of Feitian Maotai through direct sales channels. Whether it is launched through a joint-stock company or Maotai Group, the ultimate goal is to increase market supply before the liquor peak season comes, so as to cool down the hot market, so as to stabilize the price and stabilize the market.

According to the public information, at the forum of direct marketing channel dealers on November 18, Maotai said that the long-term good fundamentals of the liquor industry would not be changed, and the phenomenon that Maotai liquor would be in the sellers market for a long time in the future would not be changed. All channel merchants should clear their inventory in important festivals, prevent hoarding of Maotai liquor and increase the price of sales, so as not to boost the flames and stir up the Maotai liquor market Market price .

Since the third quarter, the first batch price of Feitian Maotai has risen rapidly to about 2800 yuan. First, the market demand is strong, and the second is that some channels are blocked. With the strength of direct sales channels in the fourth quarter, we believe that the rising trend of approval price is expected to be gradually eased. On November 22, China Thailand securities once claimed in its research report.

In addition, a sales manager of Maotai liquor store in Guizhou Province told reporters that the terminal price of Feitian Maotai liquor was still rising slightly. At the end of October, the retail price of a single bottle of Maotai liquor was more than 2500 yuan, and now it is maintained at about 2700 yuan / bottle.

At present, most consumers obsession with Maotai is not because of its social attributes, but because of its collection value or its financial attributes. An industry person in the liquor industry chain analyzed to the reporter that the retail price of a 500ml 53 degree Feitian Maotai is 1499 yuan, which is the same as the official retail price. However, the current market circulation price has already stood at 2000 yuan, even more than 2300 yuan in some areas, which is huge Large arbitrage space, so hoarding Maotai liquor has become the consensus of most consumers or investors.

A month ago, a reporter from the international financial news visited the Maotai self operated shop of Maotai international hotel in Maotai Town, Huairen, Guizhou Province. At 8:00 a.m., a long line of liquor buyers had already formed in front of the exclusive shop. According to the latest regulations of the hotel, the guests can book a bottle of Feitian Maotai with their ID card and room card. The price is 1499 yuan. It is worth mentioning that the reporter noticed that in addition to the hotel guests who buy wine, there are also yellow cattle waiting at the door of the self-supporting shop. Two thousand five (per bottle), sell or not The scalpers will take the trouble to ask every passenger who comes out of the self operated shop this sentence. If someone agrees to the transaction, they will skillfully take out their mobile phones and prepare to pay and deliver the goods. So, at present, continue to increase direct sales, whether Maotai can solve the thirst of the market? According to Ma Fei, an expert in brand management and chairman of Jiudu consulting, previously told reporters that if Maotai continues to incline to direct sales and increase the amount of investment, it will have a certain deterrent effect on cracking down on traditional dealers price increase and sales reluctance. However, market management must be carried out for a long time to be effective. Reporter Ma Yunfei editor Shen Yujie responsible editor sun Xiao source: International Finance News Author: Ma Yunfei responsible editor: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619

A month ago, a reporter from the international financial news visited the Maotai self operated shop of Maotai international hotel in Maotai Town, Huairen, Guizhou Province. At 8:00 a.m., a long line of liquor buyers had already formed in front of the exclusive shop. According to the latest regulations of the hotel, the guests can book a bottle of Feitian Maotai with their ID card and room card. The price is 1499 yuan. It is worth mentioning that the reporter noticed that in addition to the hotel guests who buy wine, there are also yellow cattle waiting at the door of the self-supporting shop.

So, at present, continue to increase direct sales, whether Maotai can solve the thirst of the market? According to Ma Fei, an expert in brand management and chairman of Jiudu consulting, previously told reporters that if Maotai continues to incline to direct sales and increase the amount of investment, it will have a certain deterrent effect on cracking down on traditional dealers price increase and sales reluctance. However, market management must be carried out for a long time to be effective.

Reporter Ma Yunfei

Editor Shen Yujie

Sun Xiao, editor in charge