Today, the three major A-share stock indexes opened high, and the pattern of Shanghai strong and deep weak was obvious. The gem index had a sharp decline at the beginning, and then followed the Shanghai index to fluctuate upward.
From the disk, pro cyclical market reappearance, related plates continue to be sought after by funds.
By the end of the noon, the mining, nonferrous metals and chemical industry in shenwanyi class industries increased by more than 2%, ranking among the top three.
In terms of concept plate, the top gainers were basically related to procyclical industries. Among them, industrial metals, coal mining and lithium index ranked among the top three, with an increase of more than 4%.
For the strong cyclical plate, the market gives higher expectations. Yuanda investment consultant said that the market is in a pro cyclical structural bull market, which promotes the index to rise in rotation and the bottom of the market gradually rises.
Jufeng investment advisers believe that after the end of the third quarter, pro cyclical plate strength and technology stocks rebound, indicating that the cross year market has begun.
Anson securities analysis, the market is still in the pattern of upward shocks. In Chinas sustained economic recovery, vaccine gradually approaching, Pro cyclical will be expected to continue to be the main line of A-share market, among which, the demand side has its own inventory cycle and industry cycle logic, and the supply side has the direction of contraction or capacity exit. The sustainability of these directions can exceed market expectations. The industry focuses on: liquor, white electricity, automobile (including new energy automobile industry chain), chemical industry, machinery, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, insurance, banks, securities companies, military industry, semiconductor, etc.
Drinking market continues
Today, rice wine, liquor, beer plate continued to rise. Benefited from the large volume of direct sales in the fourth quarter, which is conducive to the thickening of performance, Guizhou Maotai, the leader, opened up sharply today, and once again stood at 1800 yuan / share. By midday, it was up 3.96% to 1788 yuan / share.
In addition, in the liquor sector, the trading limit of jinzhongjiu was up, Laobaigan liquor was up by more than 6%, and St shede was up by more than 4%; in the yellow rice wine sector, Kuaijishan and Jinfeng liquor were both trading at the limit for three consecutive days.
Beer sector stocks rose across the board, the wind beer index rose 2.51%, within the plate * ST Xifa, Lanzhou Huanghe, Yanjing Beer, Qingdao beer rose more than 3%.
Morgan Stanley recently released its economic and asset outlook for 2021. Xing Ziqiang, the banks chief economist in China, Wang Ying, China market strategist, and others continue to be firm bullish on a shares in the latest report, and the CSI 300 index is expected to rise 14% by the end of next year.
Earlier, Goldman Sachs also gave an optimistic forecast for the Asia Pacific stock market, and expected the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (excluding Japan index) to return 18% in dollar terms next year.
In addition to support, foreign investors are also increasing their positions. With the rapid development of funds, the market is also in a good position.
Wind data shows that as of the morning close, the net inflow of funds from Beishang exceeded 3 billion yuan.
How to layout the industry in the follow-up cycle?
Huaan Securities pointed out that the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly, which continued to benefit the new energy metal plate. Restricted by the supply side reform and other factors, the release space of new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is limited in the future, the aluminum inventory is at a low level, and the supply exceeds demand or the aluminum price continues to fluctuate at a high level. In terms of cost, alumina production capacity is still in continuous release, which suppresses the price of alumina. Overall, electrolytic aluminum profit or will continue to maintain high.
Zhongyuan Securities said nonferrous metals are expected to usher in a new stage of development. Under the background of economic recovery, large-scale stimulus policies will further boost demand, and the low inventory of industrial metals will trigger the price upward; the development momentum of new energy vehicles will accelerate, new energy vehicles in China and Europe will grow rapidly, the supply of cobalt and lithium will decline, and the supply and demand pattern will improve, and the price of new energy metals is expected to rise.
Tianfeng securities that, cold winter has come, optimistic about coal prices remain high, so as to repair the performance of steam coal plate.
Anxin Securities pointed out that the current port coal price is higher than the same period last year, and the price rise has exceeded market expectations. At present, the valuation of coal plate is at the bottom of history, and the rise of coal price is expected to promote the performance growth of listed companies, and then promote the rebound of plate valuation.
Zhongtai securities mentioned that with the beginning of large-scale snowfall in the north, the future demand will gradually switch to the off-season, and the social inventory de stocking will slow down significantly in late November 2019, and it is expected that the situation will be similar this year. Different from the cost promotion of steel price in the third quarter, this round of steel price rise has indeed improved the profit per ton of steel, especially benefited from the downstream automobile and household appliances boom and the cold-rolled varieties with limited capacity increment, the profit has returned to a higher level. It is expected that the industry profit in the fourth quarter will go up to a higher level, and we can continue to pay attention to the steel stock market.
Securities strategy: A-share is brewing a wave of upward market
For the aftermarket, how do securities companies see it?
During the bull market, capital moved forward alternately on the main road and the auxiliary road, which was due to the gradual change of fundamentals. In the first half of this year, science and technology and consumption led the rise, the early cycle of the third quarter rose, and the cycle after the fourth quarter was taking effect.
Guotai Junan Securities:
In the next quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index will remain volatile, with 3100-3500 shocks. RMB appreciation and external risks will fall. A shares will be in a more friendly trading window. The recovery of trade is the core driving force of the current market. In the post epidemic era, there are two main lines: optional consumption and made in China. Societe Generale Securities: global economic recovery accelerated, global bulk prices hit a new high, demand recovery accelerated response, inventory cycle replenishment stage. With the recovery of Europe and the United States, RCEP has been achieved. China has demonstrated the supply advantages of manufacturing power and manufacturing power, and the export continues to exceed expectations. China Merchants Securities: at present, A-share listed companies are in the profit upward cycle since the second quarter of 2020. The profit of A-share in 2021 will be significantly better than this year, and the valuation switch will be triggered near the end of the year; A-share is brewing a wave of relatively obvious upward market. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368
In the next quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index will remain volatile, with 3100-3500 shocks. RMB appreciation and external risks will fall. A shares will be in a more friendly trading window. The recovery of trade is the core driving force of the current market. In the post epidemic era, there are two main lines: optional consumption and made in China.
The global economic recovery accelerated, the global bulk price reached a new high, the demand recovery accelerated response, and the inventory cycle replenished the inventory stage. With the recovery of Europe and the United States, RCEP has been achieved. China has demonstrated the supply advantages of manufacturing power and manufacturing power, and the export continues to exceed expectations.
At present, A-share listed companies are in the profit upward cycle since the second quarter of 2020. The earnings of A-share in 2021 will be significantly better than this year, and the valuation switch will be triggered near the end of the year; A-share is brewing a wave of relatively obvious upward market.