The rate of return of Monetary Fund, which has been depressed, is rising quietly. According to wind information data, on November 20, the arithmetic average 7-day annualized yield of 724 monetary funds (including short-term financial products, which are calculated separately for each type) included in the statistics was 2.29%, and the yield of five products exceeded 3%.
This year, the yield of monetary fund is in a downward channel. 1. The 7-day annualized average return in February fluctuated around 2.5%, and fell to 2.24% in March. From April to August, the average yield has been lower than 2%, which are 1.87%, 1.6%, 1.55%, 1.67% and 1.76%; it has risen to about 2.0% in September and October, and further increased to 2.25% in November.
This trend can also be seen from the performance of yuebaos yield range. On November 20, yuebaos 7-day annualized yield was 1.95%, while the lowest in the second quarter was only 1.37%.
Shen Rong, deputy investment director of fixed income Department of Everbright Prudential fund, said that there are three main reasons for the rise of the commodity based yield, namely, the tightening of monetary policy margin and the rise of capital interest rate; the strong demand of banks for cross-year liabilities near the end of the year, and the first-class issuance price of certificates of deposit has repeatedly reached new highs; asset prices have reached a small peak, and monetary funds began to allocate cross-year assets.
The pressure drop of structured deposits of commercial banks, combined with the large maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, has led to a sharp increase in the pressure on the renewal of inter-bank certificates of deposit. The primary market presents a situation of both volume and price rise, which also drives the price adjustment in the secondary market. On the other hand, the recent concentrated outbreak of credit events has impacted on the bond market, and the center of interest rate fluctuation has risen. Chen Lei, general manager of the fixed income Research Department of Debang fund, said that there is a demand for reinvestment and new capital investment when the assets mature, which can better grasp the allocation opportunities brought by the upward interest rate. By acquiring higher yield assets, the static yield of portfolio can be improved, which is also the main reason for the recent upward trend of monetary fund yield.
Stimulate the enthusiasm of organization layout
The rise in the return rate of monetary funds has stimulated the enthusiasm of the institutions in terms of layout.
Shen Rong revealed that recently, there have been some quite large-scale institutional investors who are optimistic about the allocation value of monetary funds; moreover, the adjustment of the bond market has also spawned the demand for safe haven of some institutional funds.
Many institutions have begun to pay attention to the investment value of monetary funds, and there have been a certain amount of subscription recently. The general manager of fixed income Department of a fund company thinks that the current investment value of monetary fund is relatively obvious stage.
Chen Lei said that in the upward phase of interest rates, the IMF showed a better investment value, on the one hand, due to the method of valuation based on the amortization cost method, on the other hand, it also resulted in the reduction of market risk preference and the increase of uncertainty. From the perspective of asset allocation, as the mainstream liquidity management tool, monetary fund can meet the specific investment demand in similar market environment.
However, some institutions choose to wait and see. A Beijing fund company fixed income director disclosed that the current mind of institutional investors is risk prevention. At this stage, the funds to redeem bond funds are not in a hurry to find alternatives. They tend to observe for a period of time before making a decision.
A director of fixed income of a fund company in Shanghai said that the yield of Monetary Fund was better, but it was difficult for some institutions to switch funds from bond funds to monetary funds on a large scale. The main reason is that the liquidity of the bond market is insufficient, and the bonds held by the bond base cannot be realized, or they can only be sold at a lower price. As a result, the bond funds held by these institutions can not be redeemed in large amount and the liquidity on hand is relatively tight.
At present, there are relatively good investment opportunities for monetary funds, but whether institutions invest depends on the assessment method of the funds. The debt side cost of some banks financing funds is relatively high, even if they invest in monetary funds, the income can not cover the cost of liabilities, and some of the existing bank financial products that do not meet the requirements of the new asset management regulations are still in the stage of compression. If there is no good asset allocation target, they will choose to mature ahead of time and return them to customers. The people said.
High yield expected to continue
The economy has gradually recovered, the central banks policy objective has gradually shifted from stable growth to combination of stable growth and risk prevention , the liquidity level has returned to normal, and the overall yield of monetary funds has increased compared with the previous period. Tao Qi, manager of Huafu Tianying monetary fund, said that looking back, near the end of the year, market liquidity will face seasonal tension. In the absence of effective care from the central bank, the short-term yield is easy to go up and down on the whole, and it is expected that the yield of Monetary Fund will continue to be at the high level in the year. Next year, the yield center of Monetary Fund may be higher than that in 2020.
Shen Rong said that monetary fund returns are expected to continue to rise as the end of the year approaches, reaching a peak before and after the cross-year period, then slow down, and return to normal levels after the Spring Festival. Generally speaking, money market funds as a kind of tool products have certain attraction.
Chen Lei believes that judging from the main factors affecting the upward trend of market interest rates, it seems difficult to show signs of turning point in the short term. For the monetary fund, the return on basic assets center will remain at a relatively high level, which is good for the stable growth of the scale of the Monetary Fund.
In the short term, the economy is still recovering and monetary policy continues to maintain neutral expectations. And near the next year, the fund is likely to be tight, and it is difficult to see a significant drop in the money market interest rate. In view of the pressure drop of structural deposits, the consumption of credit expansion on banks overstocking, the supply pressure of inter-bank certificates of deposit is still not low, the interest rate of certificates of deposit is likely to remain high, and the rate of return on the basis of goods in the year is still sustainable. Wang Yingying said that the follow-up trend of the commodity based yield depends on the adjustment of the central banks monetary side. Next year, with the transmission of tight credit to the economy, and when the central banks policy turns loose, the yield of the commodity based market may usher in a turn.