Will pharmaceutical stocks be shocked? The negotiation of medical insurance catalogue will start, and big price negotiation will not go away

 Will pharmaceutical stocks be shocked? The negotiation of medical insurance catalogue will start, and big price negotiation will not go away

Guoxin Securities is expected to start one-on-one negotiation in late November. Due to the large number of varieties and manufacturers involved, the whole process is expected to last for 1-2 weeks. It is expected to announce the adjustment results at the end of November or early December, which is expected to be formally implemented from 2021. The industry insiders point out that the end of the expert review stage directly means that the price reduction competition will soon start, and the negotiation and negotiation work that has attracted the attention of the industry chain will begin It will further test the enterprises price strategy and market determination.

On November 5, the national organizations centralized procurement of coronary stents was implemented, and the total amount of intended procurement in the first year accounted for 65% of the total procurement of all materials in 2019. In terms of the winning price, compared with the hanging terminal price, the drop rate is basically between 90% - 96%, which is far lower than the market expected price.

Since then, the market value of the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 3.95 billion yuan due to the evaporation of the biological market value of 3.95 billion yuan. In this regard, Du Xiangyang, chief analyst of medical biology of Southwest Securities, told e company that the winning price of coronary stent centralized collection was still higher than expected. The winning enterprises are better than the non selected enterprises, but there should be no beneficial enterprises compared with those before the centralized purchase.

What is the quality of coronary stents that have experienced substantial price reduction? Du Xiangyang believes that the quality should be guaranteed. First of all, the lowest price is higher than the cost of most stents. Enterprises need to continue to control costs and expenses, and the products can achieve small profits. In addition to the factors of not losing money in quality assurance, there are also policies. If there is a problem with the centralized purchase support, the enterprise will face very big problems in the follow-up, so the quality will certainly be guaranteed.

In terms of the future development of coronary stent industry, Du Xiangyang believes that the coronary metallic stent industry is very mature, so the follow-up volume should continue to grow. Enterprises will be more cautious in the innovation of stent varieties. However, if a revolutionary new generation of stent products are produced, there will be a bright future. Therefore, minor innovation of stents will be weakened, and major innovation may lead to the layout of leading enterprises.

According to the 2020 national medical insurance drug catalog adjustment work plan, the whole process of medical insurance catalog adjustment is divided into five stages: preparation stage, declaration stage, expert review, negotiation and bidding, and announcement of results.

In fact, on September 18, this year, the State Medical Security Bureau announced the list of drugs that have passed the formal examination for the adjustment of the national medical insurance drug list in 2020. A total of 751 drugs have passed the formal examination, and 708 products have entered the list. They are waiting to pass the expert review and obtain the interview qualification.

1. novel coronavirus pneumonia related respiratory diseases.

2. Drugs included in the national essential drug list (2018 Edition).

5. New generic drugs approved by the state drug regulatory department from January 1, 2015 to August 17, 2020.

Big price reduction is inevitable

In recent years, the price of medical insurance negotiation has become more and more obvious. As a matter of fact, the tragic situation of health insurance negotiation is no less than that of purchasing with quantity.

In 2017, among the 44 drugs to be negotiated, 36 drugs were successfully negotiated, with an average decline of 44%.

In November 2019, the National Health Insurance Administration said that 97 of the 150 drugs involved in the negotiation were successful. Among them, 70 were new drugs, with an average decrease of 60.7%; 27 were renewal varieties, with an average price drop of 26.4%.

It is generally believed in the industry that, based on the comprehensive analysis of the pricing experience and payment situation of the last round of medical insurance negotiation, innovative pharmaceutical enterprises in subdivided fields must be prepared to reduce the price by 50% if they want to obtain the medical insurance payment qualification through this round of medical insurance negotiation.

Guoxin Securities believes that the price reduction rate of key products will be an important emotional indicator of the market in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to the market leaders with innovative technology and core competitiveness and related targets not affected by medical insurance control fees.

Fierce competition for innovative drugs

In the face of the coming medical insurance negotiation and bidding, the innovative drugs approved by the State Drug Administration before August 17, 2020 are the most concerned in the industry.

The PD-1 mAb products, which have attracted the attention of the industry, include Roche, AstraZeneca, Squibb, MSD, Junshi, Baiji Shenzhou and Hengrui. Last year, only Xinda biological Co., Ltd. successfully entered the list of medical insurance in 2019. Its PD-1 antibody drug sindilimab injection (dabashu) dropped from 7838 yuan (10ml: 100mg / bottle) to 2843 yuan (10ml: 100mg / bottle), with a price reduction of 63.73%.

Xinda biologicals new drug has been approved to enter the medical insurance list, and its market sales have increased significantly. According to the financial report in the first half of 2020, the sales volume of Xinda biological core product PD-1 immunosuppressant dabershu reached 920.9 million yuan in six months, with a year-on-year increase of 177.7%. The PD-1 of moshadong, Junshi, Baiji Shenzhou and Hengrui will compete fiercely in this medical insurance negotiation.

Up to now, as the results of expert evaluation have not been published, only the list of drugs under formal review shall prevail. Among the drugs that meet the requirements of new generic drugs approved by the State Drug Administration from January 1, 2015 to August 17, 2020, Hengrui pharmaceutical has 6 drugs, Zhengda Tianqing and Hansen pharmaceutical have 4 drugs.

Du Xiangyang team of Southwest Securities pointed out that under the background of medical insurance cost control, drugs are facing the risk of price reduction. Only innovative varieties with good curative effect and clinical scarcity have strong pricing ability. From the current layout of R & D pipeline, leading enterprises with strong R & D strength and emerging innovative pharmaceutical enterprises favored by the capital market may win in the future drug market. It is suggested to focus on CXO, innovative medicine and other fields.

Guosheng Securities believes that the two more important events before the end of the year are the centralized collection of coronary stents in early November and the negotiation results of medical insurance in early December. Centralized procurement of stents has been implemented, and the next step is to negotiate medical insurance for innovative drugs (such as PD-1). There may be some emotional disturbance, but it is an important opportunity for the long-term layout of medicine.