The coldest winter in 60 years? These industries are the most warm

category:Finance
 The coldest winter in 60 years? These industries are the most warm


Since August this year, the sea surface temperature of the equatorial and Middle East Pacific has entered La Nina state. On November 4, the China Meteorological Administration held a news conference in November. After consultation, experts from China Meteorological Bureau believe that due to the La Nina incident, the cold air in China this winter is relatively frequent and its power is relatively strong. In this situation, the temperature in most parts of China this winter is normal to low, and the precipitation is generally more in the north than in the south.

Since 1950, Lanina has affected 17 winters in China. Of the 16 recorded winters, 13 of them are lower than the average temperature of previous years. The biggest impact was in 2008.

According to the analysis of 15 La Nina events from 1950 to 2018, in winter of La Nina year, the temperature rate in most parts of China will be lower than the annual value.

Under the continuous active of cold winter concept, the price rise of related products is also intensified. The textile industry, which has been silent for a long time, has been rising for several consecutive trading days. The textile and clothing industry as a whole is warming up, and the market demand is increasing day by day. The prices of the original bulk commodities such as cotton, viscose and polyester have increased in different ranges.

Coal: rising price

According to Ping An Securities report, coal is still the main heating source in winter, and coal consumption will increase marginally under cold winter weather forecast; superimposed with economic recovery, non heating coal shows a good growth trend, while the supply side is affected by safety inspection, imported coal level control and other factors, if there is extreme weather or affects coal transportation. Qi, coal prices are expected to rise in winter, easy to fall.

According to the historical data of the National Bureau of statistics and the National Climate Center, since 2009, three La Nina events have occurred in the winter of 10-11 years, 11-12 years and 17-18 years, with the event intensity of 1.64, 1.06 and 0.82, respectively. Looking back at the relevant years, when La Nina occurred, the winter coal price and coal consumption were often higher than the annual average level.

From the perspective of coal price, the coal price in heating season is about 11.52 yuan / ton higher than the annual average level in 2010-11; in 2017-18, the coal price in heating season is about 13.28 yuan / ton higher than the annual average level; by the end of October 2020, the coal price in heating season is about 40.17 yuan / ton higher than the annual average level.

At the same time, compared with previous years, this year is the end of the supply side reform, and affected by the epidemic situation, there are some different impacts on supply and demand. Under the cold winter weather forecast, superimposed with economic recovery, non heating coal presents a good growth trend. At the same time, the supply side is affected by factors such as safety inspection and imported coal level control, so the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Natural gas: heating plus atmospheric control, price rebound

Since the end of September, gas prices have risen significantly. At present, Chinas national LNG ex factory price index has risen to 2950 yuan / ton, with a rebound rate of 10.2% since this month, up 14.9% compared with the beginning of September. Since the fourth quarter of the year, many places across the country have been cooling down, and some northern regions have started heating ahead of time. Since the beginning of the month, the LNG ex factory price index in Northeast China has risen by nearly 20%.

It is generally believed that cold weather will promote the consumption of natural gas. For example, at the 2019 International Energy Development Summit Forum, Li Yalan, chairman of Beijing Gas Group, said that for every 1 degree drop in winter temperature, the demand for natural gas in Beijing will increase by 2 million cubic meters / day (the average consumption in spring and autumn in Beijing is 20 million cubic meters / day, and the peak in winter is 130 million cubic meters / day).

If the La Nina phenomenon is further intensified, the temperature in most areas of China will be further reduced compared with the same period in previous years. With the promotion of the coal to gas policy, the gas demand from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year will be further expanded, and the future growth certainty is strong. We can pay attention to the opportunities brought by the rebound of gas demand.

Textile and chemical fiber: cold winter + overseas order return

Huatai Securities said that, referring to historical experience, La Nina phenomenon will drive the demand for cold proof homes. The price or sales volume of corresponding products are expected to rise year on year, and the increase is related to the peak intensity of La Nina weather. Textile and clothing chemical fiber industry chain, especially in the middle and upper reaches of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, polyester filament price volatility in winter, downstream home textile, clothing (especially down jacket) is expected to usher in a high boom. At the same time, clothing consumption is expected to stimulate cotton demand. In the third quarter, the improvement of capacity utilization rate of the textile industry was higher than that of the overall manufacturing industry. The improvement of sales and other indicators showed that the industry prosperity was repairing. Since October, Keqiao Textile price index has moved up slightly, among which raw material price index is the most obvious. The formation of cold winter expectation and the return of foreign textile orders lead to a significant increase in textile demand. Domestic consumers demand for cold proof clothing has increased. In foreign countries, due to Chinas relatively perfect and safe supply chain, textile orders returned to China after the spread of the epidemic in India and other regions. Some manufacturers said that the output of orders such as towels and bed sheets was large, and even the orders had been scheduled to next year. Cold winter expected and foreign orders will accelerate the textile industry boom upward. Source: Wind Information Editor: Yang Qian_ NF4425

Huatai Securities said that, referring to historical experience, La Nina phenomenon will drive the demand for cold proof homes. The price or sales volume of corresponding products are expected to rise year on year, and the increase is related to the peak intensity of La Nina weather. Textile and clothing chemical fiber industry chain, especially in the middle and upper reaches of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, polyester filament price volatility in winter, downstream home textile, clothing (especially down jacket) is expected to usher in a high boom. At the same time, clothing consumption is expected to stimulate cotton demand.

The formation of cold winter expectation and the return of foreign textile orders lead to a significant increase in textile demand. Domestic consumers demand for cold proof clothing has increased. In foreign countries, due to Chinas relatively perfect and safe supply chain, textile orders returned to China after the spread of the epidemic in India and other regions. Some manufacturers said that the output of orders such as towels and bed sheets was large, and even the orders had been scheduled to next year. Cold winter expected and foreign orders will accelerate the textile industry boom upward.