First of all, under the multi factor resonance, the markets expectation of economic recovery will continue to strengthen. Second, the recovery of supply and logistics lags behind demand. Finally, the case risk of credit in this round of bond market will strengthen the credit stratification, but it will not lead to the rapid contraction of domestic credit, and it will not change the trend of repairing internal and external fundamentals, which has a limited impact on a shares.
We judge that after the breakout in October, A-share has entered a period of slow rise in rotation in November, and the procyclical plate is the most important leading line during which the market consensus will continue to strengthen. It is suggested that we should continue to strengthen the configuration of Pro cyclical products around the cyclical products and optional consumption sectors. In terms of cyclical products, nonferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, which benefited from the weak US dollar and the improvement of global economic expectations, and lithium, whose prices returned to demand driven, continued to be recommended; chemical fiber was recommended in the chemical industry sector. In terms of optional consumption, in addition to household appliances, cars, liquor, and home furnishings, we can start to pay attention to the hotels and scenic spots that have begun to repair their medium-term fundamentals.
Haitong Securities: this round of bull market is transformation and upgrading bull, science and technology and domestic demand are still the main road in the future
u2460 During the bull market, capital moved forward alternately on the main road and the auxiliary road, which was due to the gradual change of fundamentals. In the first half of this year, science and technology and consumption led the rise, the early cycle of the third quarter rose, and the cycle after the fourth quarter was taking effect.
u2461 At present, China is similar to the United States in the early 1980s, and its economy is in a transitional period. Most of the bull stocks in the U.S. stock market appeared on the main road of science and technology + consumption.
u2462 The bull market pattern has not changed. In the medium and short term, the post cycle finance is better, and the medium and long-term main line still represents the transformation and upgrading of science and technology and domestic demand.
Guotai Junan Securities: A shares in a more friendly trading window, the shock range of 3100-3500 points
Guojun strategy pointed out that in the next quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index will remain volatile, maintaining 3100-3500 shocks, RMB appreciation plus external risks landing, and a shares are in a more friendly trading window. The recovery of trade is the core driving force of the current market. In the post epidemic era, there are two main lines: optional consumption and made in China.
Societe Generale Securities: recovery market is getting better and better, focusing on two main lines
Xingzheng strategy pointed out that the global economic recovery accelerated, the global bulk price reached a new high, the demand recovery accelerated response, and the inventory cycle replenished the inventory stage. With the recovery of Europe and the United States, RCEP has been achieved. China has demonstrated the supply advantages of manufacturing power and manufacturing power, and the export continues to exceed expectations.
1) It is around the chain of export advantages with advantages in supply and demand overseas. 2) Global economic recovery, commodity replenishment inventory, price rise trend.
China Merchants Securities: A-share is brewing a wave of more obvious upward market
According to the investment promotion strategy, at present, A-share listed companies are in the profit upward cycle since the second quarter of 2020. The profit of A-share in 2021 will be significantly better than this year, and the valuation switch will be triggered near the end of the year; A-share is brewing a wave of relatively obvious upward market.
Guosheng Securities: continue to be optimistic about the cross year market from the current quarter to the first quarter of next year
Guosheng strategy pointed out that continue to be optimistic about the current to the first quarter of next years cross-year market, and this wave of market is not unilateral.
We believe that under the multiple joint forces of global economic recovery, superimposed with digestion of external uncertainty and rising risk preference brought about by the warming of internal policy expectations, cycle, consumption, science and technology sectors have opportunities. The market is expected to resonate upward and the market will exceed expectations. It is suggested to actively participate.
Anxin Securities: Pro cycle is expected to continue to become the main line of A-share market
The market is still in a pattern of upward shocks. In Chinas sustained economic recovery, vaccine gradually approaching, Pro cyclical will be expected to continue to be the main line of A-share market, among which, the demand side has its own inventory cycle and industry cycle logic, and the supply side has the direction of contraction or capacity exit. The sustainability of these directions can exceed market expectations.
The industry focuses on: liquor, white electricity, automobile (including new energy automobile industry chain), chemical industry, machinery, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, insurance, banks, securities companies, military industry, semiconductor, etc.
On the whole, under the global negative interest rate environment, a shares are still the assets pursued by global funds, and the trend of net inflow of active foreign capital remains unchanged. With the positive progress of vaccine research and development, the introduction of the U.S. fiscal stimulus program, etc., the A-share circular bull market will continue.
Three clues are suggested for investors to actively layout the market situation at the end of the year: the first is the prosperity and upward trend of the electric vehicle industry chain under the reinforcement of Tesla mapping and local policy support; the second is the electronic industry chain which still maintains a high prosperity in the medium term driven by the electronic trend of terminal products and the demand for technological upgrading; the third is that the promotion of vaccine research and development will bring about the recovery of offline economy and promote the export industry Chain and cycle inventory replenishment. The industry focuses on: automobile, electric power, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, steel, coal, electronics, etc. the theme focuses on: new energy (vehicle), consumption upgrading, military industry, state-owned enterprise reform, etc.
Tianfeng Securities: procyclical style can continue to lead a quarter
In the early stage of spring agitation, on the premise of maintaining the pro cyclical core configuration, it is suggested to pay attention to some component segments that are oversold this year and may have some marginal improvement, such as Xinchuang, financial it, medical informatization, 5g and other directions with large adjustment range in the early stage.
Open source Securities: do more new consensus to deepen the pro cyclical economic recovery stage, and the market structure is better than optional consumption in the follow-up period. Cycle is not only undervalued, return of market return to roe will become a new consensus. The time point for return to ROE is now. Buy Pro cyclical. If the recent repeated epidemic situation brings about repeated styles, investors should cherish the opportunity to adjust positions. Grasp the following three main lines (regardless of order): under the certainty of recovery direction, economic recovery brings value recovery: Finance (banking, insurance, real estate). Grasp the investment opportunities for the recovery of manufacturing industry under the switching of domestic economic momentum: chemical industry (refining and chemical industry, titanium dioxide), consolidation and transportation, machinery and equipment, household appliances, papermaking. Inflation trading can be arranged: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum), coal (coking coal). Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368
Open source Securities: long new consensus and deepening procyclicality
In the stage of economic recovery, the market structure is better than optional consumption in the follow-up period. Cycle is not only undervalued, return of market return to roe will become a new consensus. The time point for return to ROE is now. Buy Pro cyclical. If the recent repeated epidemic situation brings about repeated styles, investors should cherish the opportunity to adjust positions.
Grasp the following three main lines (regardless of order): under the certainty of recovery direction, economic recovery brings value recovery: Finance (banking, insurance, real estate). Grasp the investment opportunities for the recovery of manufacturing industry under the switching of domestic economic momentum: chemical industry (refining and chemical industry, titanium dioxide), consolidation and transportation, machinery and equipment, household appliances, papermaking. Inflation trading can be arranged: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum), coal (coking coal).