Securities companies: Pro cyclical market short-term or will continue 3800 points, the target unchanged

category:Finance
 Securities companies: Pro cyclical market short-term or will continue 3800 points, the target unchanged


At todays morning meeting of securities dealers, Northeast Securities said that the current economic recovery trend is good, risk appetite has picked up, the slow bull trend will continue in the short term, and the target of 3800 points will remain unchanged. In addition, the industry allocation is still balanced in the short term, focusing on science and technology, new energy, and pro cyclical related sectors.

Shanxi Securities said that until the end of the year, the main line of the market is still recovery trading. Near the end of the year, institutions have a strong desire to protect earnings, and timely stop profit is the main strategy. In addition, institutions need to intervene in advance,

Northeast Securities: the most favorable cycle market will last until the Spring Festival next year

From the perspective of cycle product fundamentals, the profitability sustainability of coal aluminum enterprises is relatively good, and the uncertainty of steel enterprises is large. The dominant cycle style is roughly synchronized with the price rise of this round of cycle products, and behind it is the short-term boost of demand for cycle products. The winter storage of iron and steel is coming, and the cost side is still under pressure, and the profit uncertainty of subsequent steel enterprises is large. Power plant coal inventory is small, winter heating to protect the fundamentals of coal enterprises; aluminum enterprises cost side oversupply, in the short and medium term may continue to maintain profitability.

Referring to the cyclical market brought about by the profit improvement in 2016-2017, it is expected that this round of Pro cyclical market will last until around the Spring Festival next year, and the range is weaker than that of the previous round.

The short-term industry allocation recommendations are balanced, mainly focusing on three directions:

(1) For industries with sustained medium and long-term prosperity improvement logic, they focus on science and technology innovation, consumption upgrading, new energy, military industry and other industries guided by the 14th five year plan and the long-term long-term plan. It is expected that the mid-term and long-term prosperity of new energy will continue to increase due to the more stringent carbon emission policies in Europe.

(2) The configuration value of undervalued Pro cyclical plate is still in existence, which is mainly due to the funds demand for low volatility industries still exists at the end of the year. Meanwhile, overseas demand has picked up, leading to the price rise of some upstream materials, and the cycle fundamentals have improved. It is suggested to focus on banks, securities companies, color, chemical and other sectors.

(3) From the perspective of the expected profit growth rate of various industries and the historical quantile of current valuation, the expected earnings and valuation matching degree of communication, media, nonferrous metals, electronics, electrical equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are better.

Guotai Junan Securities: behind the strong logic of price rise -- Breakthrough of manufacturing and switching of consumption

In the near future, the strongest logic of the market is around price rise, including midstream glass, polyester to upstream MDI, natural rubber, silicone, lithium and other varieties. In response to the question of killing valuation at present and conforming to the consensus of recovery trading, the joint efforts of the two are price rising varieties, that is, Guotai Junan Securities has always stressed the prosperity of anti killing valuation.

Since September, an obvious change in the style and structure of A-shares lies in the change from pursuing short-term performance certainty (such as infrastructure chain in September) to long-term profit recovery (such as automobile, new energy, household appliances, petrochemicals, etc.). Behind it is the change of cognition in the stage of economic recovery. The driving force of domestic economy has changed from policy stimulus, infrastructure and real estate support to the recovery of consumption, the improvement of export and the rise of enterprise capital expenditure. It also means that the key to investment lies in manufacturing and alternative consumption.

Different from the global zhugela cycle in 2017, the current financing environment for small and medium-sized enterprises has been significantly improved, and the capital expenditure of the manufacturing industry will be substantially restored, which means that the resonance between Chinas manufacturing industry and the global recovery will be stronger. It is necessary to look at investment opportunities from a higher perspective and further profit boom, and recommend two main lines of optional consumption + made in China: 1) optional consumption recommendation: hotel / liquor / Automobile / household appliances / aviation. 2) Made in China recommendation: new energy vehicle / photovoltaic / mechanical / Petrochemical / basic.

Shanxi Securities: Science and technology sector is still the key sector for fund to obtain excess return in the coming year

Last week, the news faced less market disturbance, but the intense game of funds in the market, the lack of the main line of the market, plate rotation faster. Plate internal division is larger, the difference between stocks is obvious. Under the rotation market, although the performance is good from the perspective of market and industry index, the profit making effect is not good at the level of individual stocks.

In terms of plate, Shanxi securities recommended to pay attention to the coal in the pro cyclical plate. Affected by the Yongmei event, the market is more cautious about the coal plate. Compared with nonferrous metals, chemical industry, iron and steel, the rise of coal plate is relatively small, and the safety margin is higher. Last week, Jizhong energy paid its credit bonds on time and the financial Commission issued a voice to strictly control the evasion and abolition of debts, which helped to ease the worries of financial institutions on the coal sector and stabilize market confidence. It is recommended that investors should pay proper attention to the science and technology sector. The first half of the year saw a large increase in the technology sector, and the latter half of the year continued to slow down. However, from the perspective of the prosperity and cost performance ratio, the technology sector is still the key sector for the fund to obtain excess returns in the coming year, and investors can lay out on bargain hunting.

In the medium and long term, Shanxi securities suggests investors pay attention to four directions. Consumption upgrading: new energy vehicles, small household appliances. The performance is fulfilled and expected to rise: new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and pharmaceutical; long-term high-quality track: medicine, photovoltaic, electronics, new infrastructure; the downward risk is small, and can be properly configured: coal, steel, and building materials.

Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of CFA_ NF4368