166000 people lost! Harbin has no choice but to sell houses at a lower price

category:Finance
 166000 people lost! Harbin has no choice but to sell houses at a lower price


Among them, the most eye-catching items are as follows:

We will support and encourage development enterprises to further sell new commercial houses such as residential houses and residential apartments to the people who buy houses. The government will assess the sales of these enterprises and give them commendations and awards.

We should actively guide and encourage enterprises to sell newly-built commercial houses by means of discount promotion and group purchase according to market conditions.

The core policies that touch the soul of the real estate industry are:

We should actively guide and encourage enterprises to sell new commercial housing by means of discount promotion and group purchase, and greatly reduce the threshold of housing purchase by provident fund.

As soon as the new deal came out, it quickly became a hot topic and triggered heated discussions in the industry.

Since 2015, few local governments have asked developers to reduce prices to sell their houses. What they say most is to restrain the rapid rise of house prices or maintain the stability of the market.

In fact, every local government clearly encourages developers to lower prices and sell houses, which requires great courage.

According to the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in October 2020 disclosed by the Ministry of finance, in the first 10 months of 2020, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights reached 5596.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year.

With the annual land sales revenue of 6-7 trillion yuan, most of the local governments financial system relies on land sales, even more than 100%.

It can be seen that land revenue has become one of the largest financial revenues of some local governments. Local governments actively let developers sell their houses at reduced prices, which directly touches the soul.

Secondly, the decline of house prices has always been one of the main reasons for owners to protect their rights and make trouble. According to the complaint reports of housing administration bureaus in some cities, in the past five years, the price reduction ranked first, far higher than that of housing quality and wrong board.

Last but not least:

Therefore, for the sake of fiscal revenue and social stability, local governments have no incentive to let developers sell their houses at a lower price.

So why did Harbin do this this time?

Two

The housing price in any city is closely related to population, economy and land supply.

Harbin has a land area of 53000 square kilometers, equivalent to 3.3 Beijing, 8.4 Shanghai and close to 27 Shenzhen.

While the land is sufficient and the urbanization rate is high, the population of Harbin is constantly losing.

Harbin is a big city with the most serious population loss among the three eastern provinces. The number of primary school students in Heilongjiang Province will drop by 31% from 2009 to 2019. It means that about 31% of the population has left Heilongjiang in the past 10 years.

In particular, the outflow of young people is serious.

However, the governments enthusiasm for consumption is very weak.

According to the data, in the first half of 2020, Harbin transferred 53 residential, commercial and commercial land, covering an area of more than 3.34 million square meters.

As a result of the fierce land sales, the supply of commercial housing has increased sharply.

In 2020, the total supply of commercial housing in Harbin is 88883, with a supply area of 8.7349 million square meters, while the accumulated transaction volume is only 36202 units, with a transaction area of 3.737 million square meters. The area supply-demand ratio from January to September is as high as 2.34. The elimination cycle is more than two years.

The final result is that since this year, Harbin property market is completely weak, both volume and price fall.

Harbins property market is entering the winter.

Once the property market is in a deadlock, local governments have only two options:

First, relax restrictions on purchase and loan, or use monetary shed reform to stimulate the rise of the property market (most cities from 2015 to 2016);

Second, encourage enterprises to reduce prices and promote sales (currently only Harbin).

Therefore, Harbin suddenly issued a new policy to encourage developers to reduce the price of housing, is a helpless choice.

Three

Harbin is ringing the alarm for other third and fourth tier cities. Under the background of weak economy and long-term net outflow of population, if the land supply is unlimited or the purchasing power of everyone will be overdrawn, the property market will fall into the ice curse of Harbin.

As we all know, real estate is a capital intensive industry. Once the urban real estate market falls in an all-round way, it will affect the whole body.

First of all, the revenue of local real estate enterprises has decreased, and the scale of bank credit to the real estate industry has shrunk significantly, and the real estate enterprises are prone to the risk of capital chain tension or even fracture.

In fact, the housing prices in some cities continue to fall, which is not unprecedented in China. In the past 2010-2015 years, a wave of real estate bubble burst in Wenzhou.

Take Wenzhou as an example, it has a developed private economy, relying on export processing business to accumulate a large number of people and wealth, coupled with the large amount of bank credit under the four trillion rescue plan, a large amount of capital poured into the real estate market, Wenzhou real estate group was once famous throughout the country.

After 2010, local house prices soared rapidly, exceeding 30000 yuan / m2 in 2011, close to the level of first tier cities.

In 2011, Chinas monetary policy turned to tightening, and the recession of European and American economies hit Wenzhous private economy heavily. When private enterprises are unable to repay their loans due to sales difficulties and broken capital chain, banks have to dispose of the real estate as collateral by auction, resulting in a 20% drop in house price within a year, and then continued to fall for more than ten months. Wenzhou banking industry is also in trouble, and even small and medium-sized banks are bankrupt. Source: Kan Jian, editor in charge of Finance and Economics: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

In 2011, Chinas monetary policy turned to tightening, and the recession of European and American economies hit Wenzhous private economy heavily.

When private enterprises are unable to repay their loans due to sales difficulties and broken capital chain, banks have to dispose of the real estate as collateral by auction, resulting in a 20% drop in house price within a year, and then continued to fall for more than ten months. Wenzhou banking industry is also in trouble, and even small and medium-sized banks are bankrupt.