166000 people lost! Harbin has no choice but to sell houses at a lower price

category:Finance
 166000 people lost! Harbin has no choice but to sell houses at a lower price


We should actively guide and encourage enterprises to sell newly-built commercial houses by means of discount promotion and group purchase according to market conditions.

Flexible employment personnel can apply for loans after six months of continuous deposit of provident fund; support employees who pay for provident fund in other places to apply for housing provident fund loan in Kazakhstan, so as to realize the same housing provident fund loan policy in Harbin.

We should actively guide and encourage enterprises to sell new commercial housing by means of discount promotion and group purchase, and greatly reduce the threshold of housing purchase by provident fund.

As soon as the new deal came out, it quickly became a hot topic and triggered heated discussions in the industry.

One

Since 2015, few local governments have asked developers to reduce prices to sell their houses. What they say most is to restrain the rapid rise of house prices or maintain the stability of the market.

It means that Harbin will become the first big city in China to encourage developers to sell their houses at lower prices.

In fact, every local government clearly encourages developers to lower prices and sell houses, which requires great courage.

According to the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in October 2020 disclosed by the Ministry of finance, in the first 10 months of 2020, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights reached 5596.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year.

It can be seen that land revenue has become one of the largest financial revenues of some local governments. Local governments actively let developers sell their houses at reduced prices, which directly touches the soul.

Secondly, the decline of house prices has always been one of the main reasons for owners to protect their rights and make trouble. According to the complaint reports of housing administration bureaus in some cities, in the past five years, the price reduction ranked first, far higher than that of housing quality and wrong board.

Last but not least:

Almost everyone knows that when house prices fall, potential buyers will wait and see and worry about lower prices in the future. Therefore, the real estate market a very important law is: buy up not buy down.

Therefore, for the sake of fiscal revenue and social stability, local governments have no incentive to let developers sell their houses at a lower price.

Two

In fact, the reason why Harbin issued the new property policy is very simple: the real estate market in Harbin cant be stretched any longer.

The housing price in any city is closely related to population, economy and land supply.

Harbin is the deputy provincial city and the capital of Heilongjiang Province.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, by the end of 2019, Harbin has a permanent population of 10.76 million, of which 7.09 million are urban population, and the urbanization rate is close to 66%. By horizontal comparison, the urbanization rate is not low.

Harbin is a big city with the most serious population loss among the three eastern provinces. The number of primary school students in Heilongjiang Province will drop by 31% from 2009 to 2019. It means that about 31% of the population has left Heilongjiang in the past 10 years.

At the same time, the permanent resident population did not increase but decreased. In 2017, the permanent resident population was 10.929 million, only 10.763 million in 2019, and the number decreased by 166 000 in two years.

In particular, the outflow of young people is serious.

With the loss of population, Harbins economy can not hold up. In 2019, the GDP is 524.9 billion yuan, and the per capita GDP is only 48800 yuan, ranking the bottom of the provincial capital cities in China, and the per capita disposable income is 40000 yuan, which is also lower than the national average level.

However, the governments enthusiasm for consumption is very weak.

According to the data, in the first half of 2020, Harbin transferred 53 residential, commercial and commercial land, covering an area of more than 3.34 million square meters.

In 2020, the total supply of commercial housing in Harbin is 88883, with a supply area of 8.7349 million square meters, while the accumulated transaction volume is only 36202 units, with a transaction area of 3.737 million square meters. The area supply-demand ratio from January to September is as high as 2.34. The elimination cycle is more than two years.

In August 2020, the average price of new houses in Harbin is 10463 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of more than 10%. The sales volume of new houses is 509600 square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%.

Harbins property market is entering the winter.

Once the property market is in a deadlock, local governments have only two options:

First, relax restrictions on purchase and loan, or use monetary shed reform to stimulate the rise of the property market (most cities from 2015 to 2016);

Second, encourage enterprises to reduce prices and promote sales (currently only Harbin).

Therefore, Harbin suddenly issued a new policy to encourage developers to reduce the price of housing, is a helpless choice.

Three

Harbin is ringing the alarm for other third and fourth tier cities. Under the background of weak economy and long-term net outflow of population, if the land supply is unlimited or the purchasing power of everyone will be overdrawn, the property market will fall into the ice curse of Harbin.

If the developers really take the initiative to reduce the price of housing, resulting in more than one drop in house prices, who is the most afraid?

As we all know, real estate is a capital intensive industry. Once the urban real estate market falls in an all-round way, it will affect the whole body.

Take Wenzhou as an example, it has a developed private economy, relying on export processing business to accumulate a large number of people and wealth, coupled with the large amount of bank credit under the four trillion rescue plan, a large amount of capital poured into the real estate market, Wenzhou real estate group was once famous throughout the country.

High bar enterprises have joined the real estate speculation.

In 2011, Chinas monetary policy turned to tightening, and the recession of European and American economies hit Wenzhous private economy heavily. When private enterprises are unable to repay their loans due to sales difficulties and broken capital chain, banks have to dispose of the real estate as collateral by auction, resulting in a 20% drop in house price within a year, and then continued to fall for more than ten months. Wenzhou banking industry is also in trouble, and even small and medium-sized banks are bankrupt. Source: Kan Jian, editor in charge of Finance and Economics: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

In 2011, Chinas monetary policy turned to tightening, and the recession of European and American economies hit Wenzhous private economy heavily.

When private enterprises are unable to repay their loans due to sales difficulties and broken capital chain, banks have to dispose of the real estate as collateral by auction, resulting in a 20% drop in house price within a year, and then continued to fall for more than ten months. Wenzhou banking industry is also in trouble, and even small and medium-sized banks are bankrupt.