The RMB central price rose by 67 basis points, and institutions said the appreciation trend is expected to continue

category:Finance
 The RMB central price rose by 67 basis points, and institutions said the appreciation trend is expected to continue


Wind data showed that as of November 20, the onshore exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.5714 yuan, up 430 points in the week. The longer trading hours of the offshore yuan against the US dollar closed at 6.5515 yuan, up more than 400 points in the week.

Analysts pointed out that the formal signing of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) on November 15 has become a major factor in boosting the appreciation of the RMB. In addition, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.62% last week, and another weakening of the US dollar also contributed to the strength of the RMB. Chinas continued economic recovery, better epidemic prevention and control than overseas and high interest rate differentials between China and foreign countries are still the internal reasons supporting the appreciation of RMB.

Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC international, believes that the force to maintain the stability of RMB value will continue in 2021: first, Chinas economic growth rate is leading in the world; second, the attractiveness of RMB assets to global funds is still increasing; third, global monetary policy is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten, and Chinas interest rate is still relatively high. These factors will support the RMB exchange rate.

Guotai Junan Qin Han team pointed out that since August, internal factors have begun to form a positive contribution to the exchange rate and dominate the pricing, and the RMB began to fully appreciate against a basket of currencies. However, from June to July, the RMB only partially appreciated, which was devalued against the euro, Australian dollar, British pound, Korean won and Japanese yen. Qin Han team believes that the core reason for the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and a basket of currencies is that the domestic economic and financial cycle is ahead of the overseas. Looking forward to 2021, the US dollar index will continue to be weak due to structural and cyclical reasons. The appreciation trend of RMB against the US dollar is expected to continue, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may be close to 6.30. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase and other institutions predict that, against the backdrop of the current favorable economic environment in China, the RMB / USD exchange rate is expected to further move up to the range of 6.30-40 in the middle of 2021. Source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of Finance and Economics_ NB12679

Qin Han team believes that the core reason for the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and a basket of currencies is that the domestic economic and financial cycle is ahead of the overseas. Looking forward to 2021, the US dollar index will continue to be weak due to structural and cyclical reasons. The appreciation trend of RMB against the US dollar is expected to continue, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may be close to 6.30.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase and other institutions predict that, against the backdrop of the current favorable economic environment in China, the RMB / USD exchange rate is expected to further move up to the range of 6.30-40 in the middle of 2021.